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Terminal molting probability (TMP) of snow crab Chionoecetes opilio was estimated using instar- and state-structured model incorporating the terminal molt in the waters off the Pacific coast of northern Honshu, Japan. TMP is defined as the probability that terminal molt occurs within a year in an instar and is an important parameter for stock assessment. TMP was estimated from the model and the rate of terminal molted crabs (RTM) for instars, which means carapace widths over 30 mm. Carapace widths at RTM of 0.5 were 81 mm for males and 66 mm for females. TMP was estimated as 0.23 and 0.29 for these carapace widths, respectively. Carapace widths at TMP of 0.5 were 94 mm for males and 71 mm for females, and for these carapace widths 57% of male and 50% of female crabs were considered as old-shell which had survived 1 year or more from terminal molt. Changing the fishing or natural mortality by ±0.1, the maximum difference of TMP was less than 0.1 from default estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]