1. Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China.
- Author
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Hu, Shixiong, Wang, Wei, Wang, Yan, Litvinova, Maria, Luo, Kaiwei, Ren, Lingshuang, Sun, Qianlai, Chen, Xinghui, Zeng, Ge, Li, Jing, Liang, Lu, Deng, Zhihong, Zheng, Wen, Li, Mei, Yang, Hao, Guo, Jinxin, Wang, Kai, Chen, Xinhua, Liu, Ziyan, and Yan, Han
- Subjects
SARS-CoV-2 ,CONTACT tracing ,COVID-19 ,AGE groups - Abstract
Several mechanisms driving SARS-CoV-2 transmission remain unclear. Based on individual records of 1178 potential SARS-CoV-2 infectors and their 15,648 contacts in Hunan, China, we estimated key transmission parameters. The mean generation time was estimated to be 5.7 (median: 5.5, IQR: 4.5, 6.8) days, with infectiousness peaking 1.8 days before symptom onset, with 95% of transmission events occurring between 8.8 days before and 9.5 days after symptom onset. Most transmission events occurred during the pre-symptomatic phase (59.2%). SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility to infection increases with age, while transmissibility is not significantly different between age groups and between symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. Contacts in households and exposure to first-generation cases are associated with higher odds of transmission. Our findings support the hypothesis that children can effectively transmit SARS-CoV-2 and highlight how pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission can hinder control efforts. Detailed knowledge of COVID-19 epidemiology is needed to inform public health responses. Here, the authors use large-scale contact tracing data to provide empirical estimates of key parameters, and show that susceptibility increases with age but transmissibility does not vary significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
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