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The Earth is experiencing historically unprecedented rates of warming, with surface temperatures projected to increase by 3–5 °C globally, and up to 7.5 °C in high latitudes, within the next century. Knowledge of how this will affect biological systems is still largely restricted to the lower levels of organization (e.g. species range shifts), rather than at the community, food web or ecosystem level, where responses cannot be predicted from studying single species in isolation. Further, many correlational studies are confounded with time and/or space, whereas experiments have been mostly confined to laboratory microcosms that cannot capture the true complexity of natural ecosystems. We used a ‘natural experiment’ in an attempt to circumvent these shortcomings, by characterizing community structure and trophic interactions in 15 geothermal Icelandic streams ranging in temperature from 5 °C to 45 °C. Even modest temperature increases had dramatic effects across multiple levels of organization, from changes in the mean body size of the top predators, to unimodal responses of species populations, turnover in community composition, and lengthening of food chains. Our results reveal that the rates of warming predicted for the next century have serious implications for the structure and functioning of these fragile ‘sentinel’ ecosystems across multiple levels of organization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Eight adjacent sub-arctic streams with consistently different temperatures but broadly similar chemistry, other than some differences in conductivity and linked pH, were used to investigate effects of temperature regime on the structure of primary producer communities. Grazing by invertebrates was also taken into account to detect possible effects on the primary producers. The moss species Fontinalis antipyretica Hedw. (Bryophyta) was only observed in the warmer streams and its cover was positively linked with temperature. The liverwort Jungermannia exsertifolia (Steph.) was absent from the warmer streams and scarce in the colder streams. The biomass of F. antipyretica was inversely correlated with concentration of epilithic chlorophyll a, possibly due to shading from the bryophyte and/or competition between algae and bryophytes for nutrients. Epilithic algae and bryophyte biomass were not related to density of the main grazer, Radix peregra Müller (Gastropoda). A high biovolume of green algae (Chlorophyta) occurred in all streams. The biovolume Cyanobacteria was greatest in the coldest stream and in the two intermediately warm streams. Diatom biovolume was low compared with the biovolumes of Cyanobacteria and green algae in all streams, except in the two warmest streams, where the highest biovolume of diatom occurred. Regularized Canonical Correlation Analysis (RCCA) classification based on all primary producer assemblages and invertebrates indicated that warm streams (16.7–22.2°C) were similar to each other. It also showed that the colder streams (6.6–13.2°C) were different from the warmer streams and from each other because of differences in conductivity. Temperature and conductivity were the most influential variables in determining overall stream diversity. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The physical effects of climate warming have been well documented, but the biological responses are far less well known, especially at the ecosystem level and at large (intercontinental) scales. Global warming over the next century is generally predicted to reduce food web complexity, but this is rarely tested empirically due to the dearth of studies isolating the effects of temperature on complex natural food webs. To overcome this obstacle, we used 'natural experiments' across 14 streams in Iceland and Russia, with natural warming of up to 20°C above the coldest stream in each high-latitude region, where anthropogenic warming is predicted to be especially rapid. Using biomass-weighted stable isotope data, we found that community isotopic divergence (a universal, taxon-free measure of trophic diversity) was consistently lower in warmer streams. We also found a clear shift towards greater assimilation of autochthonous carbon, which was driven by increasing dominance of herbivores but without a concomitant increase in algal stocks. Overall, our results support the prediction that higher temperatures will simplify high-latitude freshwater ecosystems and provide the first mechanistic glimpses of how warming alters energy transfer through food webs at intercontinental scales., (© 2024 The Author(s). Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)