Search

Fire regimes are influenced by both exogenous drivers (e.g., increases in atmospheric CO2 and climate change) and endogenous drivers (e.g., vegetation and soil/litter moisture), which constrain fuel loads and fuel aridity. Herein, we identified how exogenous and endogenous drivers can interact to affect fuels and fire regimes in a semiarid watershed in the inland northwestern United States throughout the 21st century. We used a coupled ecohydrologic and fire regime model to examine how climate change and CO2 scenarios influence fire regimes. In this semiarid watershed, we found an increase in burned area and burn probability in the mid‐21st century (2040s) as the CO2 fertilization effect on vegetation productivity outstripped the effects of climate change‐induced fuel decreases, resulting in greater fuel loading. However, by the late‐21st century (2070s), climatic warming dominated over CO2 fertilization, thus reducing fuel loading and burned area. Fire regimes were shown to shift from flammability‐ to fuel‐limited or become increasingly fuel‐limited in response to climate change. We identified a metric to identify when fire regimes shift from flammability‐ to fuel‐limited: the ratio of the change in fuel loading to the change in its aridity. The threshold value for which this metric indicates a flammability versus fuel‐limited regime differed between grasses and woody species but remained stationary over time. Our results suggest that identifying these thresholds in other systems requires narrowing uncertainty in exogenous drivers, such as future precipitation patterns and CO2 effects on vegetation. Plain Language Summary: While many studies have projected increases in wildfire under future climate change, fire may eventually decrease in some locations. The direction and extent of fire regime changes depend in large part on how decreases in fuel moisture balance against increases or decreases in fuel loading, which can occur in response to warmer temperatures and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The balance between fuel moisture and loading, and their relative importance in driving fire regimes can vary along moisture gradients in western North America. To project how wildfire size, frequency, and severity will change in a relatively arid watershed of the northwestern United States throughout the 21st century, we used a coupled vegetation, water, and fire spread model. We found that wildfire is likely to increase in the mid‐21st century due to an increase in fuel production and drier fuel. However, wildfire will likely to decrease in the late‐21st century due to warming‐induced increases in fuel decomposition, even when fuels are drier. We demonstrate that future wildfire regimes are dynamic, so the linear extrapolation of fire size from the baseline and 2040s scenarios to the 2070s may not always be a suitable approach, and we need to consider complex fuel responses to climate change. Predicting future wildfires will require reducing key uncertainties in future precipitation patterns and understanding how CO2 fertilization affects plant growth. Key Points: Burned area in a semiarid watershed in Idaho is projected to increase in the 2040s and decrease in the 2070sWhile climate change decreases burned area by reducing fuel load, CO2 fertilization counteracts this effect to some extentFor a given vegetation type, there are temporally stable thresholds that determine whether a location is fuel or flammability limited [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks in the western United States result in widespread tree mortality, transforming forest structure within watersheds. While there is evidence that these changes can alter the timing and quantity of streamflow, there is substantial variation in both the magnitude and direction of hydrologic responses, and the climatic and environmental mechanisms driving this variation are not well understood. Herein, we coupled an eco-hydrologic model (RHESSys) with a beetle effects model and applied it to a semiarid watershed, Trail Creek, in the Bigwood River basin in central Idaho, USA, to examine how varying degrees of beetle-caused tree mortality influence water yield. Simulation results show that water yield during the first 15 years after beetle outbreak is controlled by interactions between interannual climate variability, the extent of vegetation mortality, and long-term aridity. During wet years, water yield after a beetle outbreak increased with greater tree mortality; this was driven by mortality-caused decreases in evapotranspiration. During dry years, water yield decreased at low-to-medium mortality but increased at high mortality. The mortality threshold for the direction of change was location specific. The change in water yield also varied spatially along aridity gradients during dry years. In wetter areas of the Trail Creek basin, post-outbreak water yield decreased at low mortality (driven by an increase in ground evaporation) and increased when vegetation mortality was greater than 40 % (driven by a decrease in canopy evaporation and transpiration). In contrast, in more water-limited areas, water yield typically decreased after beetle outbreaks, regardless of mortality level (although the driving mechanisms varied). Our findings highlight the complexity and variability of hydrologic responses and suggest that long-term (i.e., multi-decadal mean) aridity can be a useful indicator for the direction of water yield changes after a disturbance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disturbances such as wildfire, insect outbreaks, and forest clearing, play an important role in regulating carbon, nitrogen, and hydrologic fluxes in terrestrial watersheds. Evaluating how watersheds respond to disturbance requires understanding mechanisms that interact over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Simulation modeling is a powerful tool for bridging these scales; however, model projections are limited by uncertainties in the initial state of plant carbon and nitrogen stores. Watershed models typically use one of two methods to initialize these stores: spin-up to steady state or remote sensing with allometric relationships. Spin-up involves running a model until vegetation reaches equilibrium based on climate. This approach assumes that vegetation across the watershed has reached maturity and is of uniform age, which fails to account for landscape heterogeneity and non-steady-state conditions. By contrast, remote sensing, can provide data for initializing such conditions. However, methods for assimilating remote sensing into model simulations can also be problematic. They often rely on empirical allometric relationships between a single vegetation variable and modeled carbon and nitrogen stores. Because allometric relationships are species- and region-specific, they do not account for the effects of local resource limitation, which can influence carbon allocation (to leaves, stems, roots, etc.). To address this problem, we developed a new initialization approach using the catchment-scale ecohydrologic model RHESSys. The new approach merges the mechanistic stability of spin-up with the spatial fidelity of remote sensing. It uses remote sensing to define spatially explicit targets for one or several vegetation state variables, such as leaf area index, across a watershed. The model then simulates the growth of carbon and nitrogen stores until the defined targets are met for all locations. We evaluated this approach in a mixed pine-dominated watershed in central Idaho, and a chaparral-dominated watershed in southern California. In the pine-dominated watershed, model estimates of carbon, nitrogen, and water fluxes varied among methods, while the target-driven method increased correspondence between observed and modeled streamflow. In the chaparral watershed, where vegetation was more homogeneously aged, there were no major differences among methods. Thus, in heterogeneous, disturbance-prone watersheds, the target-driven approach shows potential for improving biogeochemical projections., (© 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.)