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Terminal lakes throughout the American West provide important amenity and environmental values, but many are shrinking due to reduced inflows and warming temperatures. In California's Imperial Valley, agricultural water use reductions diminish inflows supporting the Salton Sea, a terminal desert lake and important environmental amenity for both the region and the state as a whole. The costs of these reduced inflows are difficult to monetize yet complicate management decisions. We assess the costs of potential future drought‐induced transfers by linking novel hydrologic scenarios to an economic framework for quantifying local and regional damages based on existing estimates of non‐market environmental values from the literature. The costs of lost wetland ecosystems, increases in particulate matter from exposed playa, and other local disamenities are substantial. For the scenarios considered, they range between approximately $500 million and $1 billion in present value (2019 USD). Estimated damages per acre‐foot (or thousand m3) of reallocated water exceed several thousand dollars. The majority arise from loss of wetland habitat; incremental particulate matter damages are relatively modest in our modeling but exacerbate salient air quality issues in the region. Interest in reallocating water from Imperial Valley, the largest user of Colorado River water, to other applications will increase over time. Our work highlights the importance of evaluating the impacts of such efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]