1. How Critical Is the Accuracy of the Atmospheric Transport Modeling to Improve the Urban CO2 Emission in India?—A Lagrangian‐Based Approach.
- Author
-
Sukumaran, Jithin, Pillai, Dhanyalekshmi, Thilakan, Vishnu, Lekshmi, Saradambal, Udayakumar, Gokul, Mathew, Thara Anna, Ravi, Aparnna, and MG, Manoj
- Subjects
TRACE gases ,ATMOSPHERIC transport ,ATMOSPHERIC models ,ATMOSPHERIC carbon dioxide ,PARIS Agreement (2016) ,CARBON emissions - Abstract
Anthropogenic CO2 emission reduction strategies depend on how well we track emission enhancements at the urban scale. The estimation system, based on inverse modeling, relies on our knowledge of atmospheric transport and prior flux distributions. Hence, the analysis framework must account for uncertainties associated with each component in order to interpret the variations in observed CO2. Using an ensemble of simulations, we quantify the uncertainties in simulating anthropogenic CO2 mixing ratio enhancements at 15 locations in India. Differences in the representation of transport mechanisms and prior emission in the forward model induce a consistently large model spread of 62.2% and 41.9%, respectively, in the simulated mixing ratio over cities. The analysis reports an average uncertainty of 2.2 ppm with a maximum of 8 ppm for representing diurnally averaged anthropogenic CO2 enhancement. Diurnal variations in emissions and transport induce a rectification effect in those enhancements. The outcome of this study can thus inform future atmospheric CO2 inversion modeling at an urban scale on the expected forward model uncertainties, which are the essential components in the Bayesian inversion framework, typically lacking in the Indian region. The first‐order inversion experiments show that the change in the transport model induces significant uncertainty (up to 84.9%) in anthropogenic CO2 flux estimation at the national scale. Hence, the confidence level of inverse‐based emission estimation in India depends considerably on the accuracy of atmospheric transport modeling. Plain Language Summary: India has pledged in Paris Agreement to significantly reduce its carbon emission by 2030 to combat the adverse effects of climate change. To attain the above goal, we need an improved and detailed understanding of carbon source‐sink distribution. Further, the urban emission reduction strategies call for city‐scale CO2 enhancement tracking. We can address this vital requirement by the combined use of atmospheric trace gas measurements and CO2 simulations via inverse modeling. Atmospheric inverse modeling relates the concentration of trace gases with the underlying surface fluxes and improves our existing knowledge about emissions. Using a multitude of simulations with different initial conditions and data inputs, this study shows that the details of how atmospheric transport is modeled in the inverse modeling system have a larger influence on the national carbon budget estimation than the prior assumptions of surface flux distribution over India. The transport errors cause a significant uncertainty of up to 84.9% in carbon emission estimates. Incorporating the temporal variability of prior emission estimates in the model enables us to better understand the dilution of the anthropogenic CO2 in certain conditions. The inferences from this study can be helpful in designing an urban CO2 emission monitoring system in India. Key Points: Anthropogenic urban CO2 enhancements and their uncertainties are quantified for the Indian region using Lagrangian ensemble simulationsThe model bias can be as high as 8 ppm in predicting daily anthropogenic CO2 enhancements in Indian citiesThe transport model errors alone cause a significant uncertainty of up to 84.9% in the Indian anthropogenic CO2 flux estimates [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF