1. Increasing Flood Frequencies Under Warming in the West‐Central Himalayas.
- Author
-
Swarnkar, Somil and Mujumdar, Pradeep
- Subjects
GLOBAL warming ,FLOOD control ,RAINSTORMS ,HAZARD mitigation ,FLOOD warning systems ,HYDRAULIC structures ,FLOODS ,NATURAL disasters - Abstract
The west‐central Himalayan River basins face significant damage caused by extreme floods annually. We selected the upper Ganga basin (UGB), the west‐central Himalayan basin, to demonstrate how maximum cumulative storm and total rainfall received during monsoon control the extreme flow variability. In addition, the downscaled CMIP6 data sets were used for projections of extremes. The results suggest that historically Alaknanda basin receives a relatively higher magnitude of monsoon and storm rainfall than the other regions in the UGB, which manifested into significant extreme flow variability at the Alaknanda outlet. The extreme flows at the UGB outlet are projected to be more frequent under warming scenarios. The nonstationary flood frequency magnitudes are higher than those obtained from the stationary frequency method, implying a need for a review of return periods used in the designs of flood control structures in the region. Plain Language Summary: Floods are frequent natural disasters in India that affect millions of people and disrupt socioeconomic conditions. Climate change and human interventions further exaggerate flood hazards in many regions of the country. The west and west‐central Indian Himalayas are the worst flood‐affected regions in recent decades. A detailed scientific analysis is, therefore, crucial for sustainable flood management. Here, we analyze the historical behavior and future projections of annual maximum flows in the upper Ganga basin (UGB; located in the west‐central Himalayan region). Our results indicate that the eastern Alaknanda basin has historically been a highly flood‐prone region in the UGB. The warming climate might further amplify the extreme flood hazards. The nonstationary flood magnitudes are also expected to intensify, posing a severe threat to the operation of hydraulic structures. These inferences would be helpful in formulating sustainable flood mitigation strategies for the west‐central Himalayan region. Key Points: Eastern Alaknanda basin is one of the worst flood‐affected regions in the upper Ganga basinWarming climates are observed to amplify the extreme flood magnitudes in the upper Ganga basinNonstationary flood frequency magnitudes are higher than those obtained from the stationary frequency method [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF