Search

The modulation of the rainfall diurnal cycle at intraseasonal and interannual time scales is examined using gridded rainfall data over Eastern Africa and the nearby Indian Ocean for the period 1998–2014. Our focus is on the October‐December season which is strongly impacted by both the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IODM). The effect of the MJO, which is not synchronized across the whole region, is mainly through changes in the amplitude of the diurnal cycle, especially an enhancement of the late afternoon peak in active phases of the MJO. The rainfall phase only shows minor variations between the active and quiescent phases of the MJO, except over the drier regions and the Indian Ocean where the overall diurnal rainfall signal is more uneven. The effect of the positive phase of the IODM (warm western Indian Ocean) on Eastern Africa rainfall is found at any time of the day, but the enhancement is more prominent during the wettest part of the day (generally the afternoon). Substantial changes in the diurnal phase of the rains are found in some land areas away from the coast or from mountain ranges, where the dominant afternoon peak during the negative IODM phase is replaced by a nighttime maximum during the positive phase. Cross‐sections and a cluster analysis of diurnal rainfall patterns over Kenya and southern Somalia suggest that this feature may be associated with the development of longer‐lived rainfall systems propagating inland from the coast during the IODM positive phase. Key Points: Diurnal rainfall distribution over Eastern Africa and the nearby Indian Ocean is modulated at intraseasonal and interannual time scalesThe Madden‐Julian Oscillation mainly affects the diurnal cycle amplitude, especially by enhancing or weakening the late afternoon peakThe Indian Ocean Dipole Mode also mostly affects the amplitude, but notable changes occur in the phase of the rains over some land areas [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ensemble simulations of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Ando (31 December 2000-9 January 2001) are performed over the southwest Indian Ocean using the nonhydrostatic WRF Model. Nested domains centered over the island of La Réunion allow for the simulation of local rainfall amounts associated with TC Ando at very high resolution (680-m grid spacing). The model is forced by and nudged toward ERA-Interim during the first (1-6) day(s) of the TC's life cycle. The nudging ends at various dates to constrain either the whole life cycle or only parts of it. As expected, results show weakened member dispersion, as the relaxation lasts longer, with more members producing similar cyclone tracks and intensities. The model shows reasonable skill to simulate local rainfall amounts and distribution, as soon as the simulated TC approaches La Réunion with a realistic distance and azimuth. Strong lower-level wind associated with the TC is forced to ascend over the slopes of the island. The model is able to successfully simulate the extreme daily precipitation amounts (>1200 mm) and their distribution over the highest parts of La Réunion. Nevertheless, smaller-scale features of the rainfall field are less realistic in the simulations. The wind speed and direction upstream of the island are the main drivers of such local uncertainties and errors, and they appear as an important issue to assess the local impacts of the TC over such a complex terrain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using daily rain gauge records for Madagascar and nearby islands, this paper investigates rainfall intraseasonal variability at local and regional scales during the austral summer season (November-February), as well as the respective influences of recurrent convective regimes over the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) and the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). The results show a general consistency between local-scale rainfall variability in Madagascar and regional-scale features of climate variability. The influence of tropical temperate troughs in their mature phase and/or their easternmost locations is first underlined. The development of such systems over southern Africa and the Mozambique Channel can be considered as precursors for Malagasy wet spells, especially over the southern part of the island. Regional and local effects of the MJO are weaker on average, and only concern the northwest of the island and the north of the Mozambique Channel. MJO and convective regimes are finally shown to explain distinct fractions of regional rainfall variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study documents methodological issues arising when downscaling modes of large-scale atmospheric variability with a regional climate model, over a remote region that is yet under their influence. The retained case study is El Niño Southern Oscillation and its impacts on Southern Africa and the South West Indian Ocean. Regional simulations are performed with WRF model, driven laterally by ERA40 reanalyses over the 1971-1998 period. We document the sensitivity of simulated climate variability to the model physics, the constraint of relaxing the model solutions towards reanalyses, the size of the relaxation buffer zone towards the lateral forcings and the forcing fields through ERA-Interim driven simulations. The model's internal variability is quantified using 15-member ensemble simulations for seasons of interest, single 30-year integrations appearing as inappropriate to investigate the simulated interannual variability properly. The incidence of SST prescription is also assessed through additional integrations using a simple ocean mixed-layer model. Results show a limited skill of the model to reproduce the seasonal droughts associated with El Niño conditions. The model deficiencies are found to result from biased atmospheric forcings and/or biased response to these forcings, whatever the physical package retained. In contrast, regional SST forcing over adjacent oceans favor realistic rainfall anomalies over the continent, although their amplitude remains too weak. These results confirm the significant contribution of nearby ocean SST to the regional effects of ENSO, but also illustrate that regionalizing large-scale climate variability can be a demanding exercise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and given phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) show similar regional signatures over the Equatorial Indian Ocean, consisting in an enhancement or reversing of the convective and dynamic zonal gradients between East Africa and the Maritime Continent of Indonesia. This study analyses how these two modes of variability add or cancel their effects at their respective timescales, through an investigation of the equatorial cellular circulations over the central Indian Ocean. Results show that (1) the wind shear between the lower and upper troposphere is related to marked regional rainfall anomalies and is embedded in larger-scale atmospheric configurations, involving the Southern Oscillation; (2) the intraseasonal (30-60 days) and interannual (4-5 years) timescales are the most energetic frequencies that modulate these circulations, confirming the implication of the MJO and ENSO; (3) extreme values of the Indian Ocean wind shear result from the combination of El Niño and the MJO phase enhancing atmospheric convection over Africa, or La Niña and the MJO phase associated with convective activity over the Maritime Continent. Consequences for regional rainfall anomalies over East Africa and Indonesia are then discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study was to classify the most frequently observed atmospheric circulation anomaly patterns in eastern Africa and the adjacent Indian Ocean. As an example of the usefulness of such a classification, the second objective was to test whether these patterns account for intraseasonal rainfall anomalies in the region. A partitioning algorithm, known as dynamical cluster analysis, was therefore applied to the zonal (U) and meridional (V) components of the wind anomalies, obtained from the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis R-2 at the pentad (5 d) timescale. The 3 geopotential levels 850, 700 and 200 hPa were combined. Focus is on the transition seasons (March to May and October to December), which correspond to the 2 East African rainy seasons. The classification domain is large enough (40° latitude × 40° longitude) to describe large-scale anomaly patterns, but it focuses on equatorial and subequatorial atmospheric dynamics. The results consist of 7 major wind anomaly clusters, for which associated atmospheric fields (geopotential height anomalies, precipitation anomalies) and the seasonal distribution were explored. Among them, 2 clusters strongly resemble the anomaly patterns associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The other major configurations show similarities with recurrent previously observed patterns involved in wet or dry spells over East or Southern Africa. Statistical tests reveal that this partition is able to significantly discriminate rainfall anomalies over the eastern part of the African continent; 4 of the 7 clusters correspond to abnormally wet or dry events over Equatorial East Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]