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We quantitatively evaluated mitigation potentials of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and land use sectors in Indonesia. We also determined for the land use sector 1) how much time is needed to plan the mitigation strategy, and 2) how much time is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation measures? We used a bottom-up type model on emission mitigation named Agriculture Forestry and Other Land Use Bottom-up model (AFOLU-B model) to consider a characteristics time sequence of actions, effects and costs of mitigation countermeasures. To input to the model, we developed future scenarios on human activities in these sectors based on data from Indonesian government. We found that i) evaluation on effects and costs of mitigation measures from a long-term viewpoint and their continuing implementation are required to increase future mitigation potentials under a limited budget. ii) a long-term reduction target will also play an important role for cost-effective countermeasure selection. iii) reforestation of slow glowing species and enhanced natural regeneration will cause great increase in mitigation potential in the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigation potentials in Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) in the Southeast Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam, up to 2030. We developed a bottom-up type model named the AFOLUB Model, which calculates GHG mitigations based on the detailed information of specific technologies. The model illustrates producer's behaviour of agricultural production and mitigation technology selection as a result of profit maximization. Using this model, we evaluated mitigations and effective technologies with high mitigation potentials in the sectors. As a result, GHG emissions in agriculture and Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) in the three countries were 149 MtCO2eq/year and 1.0 GtCO2eq/year in 2005 and will increase 1.7 and 1.8 times up to 2030 in the BaU case. Indonesia is the largest emission country among them. We also found that no-regret mitigation technologies are expected to reduce 33MtCO2eq/year in 2030, which corresponds to 22% of agricultural emissions at the 2005 level. Under 10USD/tCO2eq of mitigation cost, 56MtCO2eq/year of emissions can be reduced by midseason drainage (MM) in rice cultivation, high efficient fertilizer application (HEF) to managed soils and Replacement of roughage with concentrates (RRC) etc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]