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This study aims to optimize the development of aviation biofuel as a sustainable energy source by simulating system dynamics modeling. This study is based on the System Dynamics modeling approach, which is a set of conceptual tools designed to understand the structure and dynamics of complex systems. This study used the system dynamics method specifically designed to analyze complex systems. It has been applied to various sustainability-related issues, including urban area sustainable development modeling, sustainability of water resources, environmental management, and sustainable urbanization. The result obtained using the quantitative modeling showed that the contribution of aviation biofuel to flight intensity in Indonesia is still insignificant. The practical implications of this study are that palm oil has the potential to be a viable raw material for aviation biofuel production in Indonesia, and implementing policies to mitigate negative consequences and optimize land use for aviation biofuel fuel production can contribute to sustainable urban development. The originality of this study lies in its use of System Dynamics modeling to analyze the potential of palm oil as a raw material for aviation biofuel production and identify the various social, economic, environmental, and technological factors that impact it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Citronella oil is an aromatic oil obtained through the distillation of citronella stems or leaves. In Indonesia, the distillation process is predominantly carried out by small to medium-sized enterprises. Enhancing the reliability of the citronella oil supply chain has the potential to increase the profits of farmers and distillers. However, farmers and distillers in Indonesia face the challenge of fluctuating prices for citronella oil, leading to a decline in profits. This research aims to model the upstream supply chain system of citronella essential oil. The study has identified the key stakeholders involved in the citronella oil supply chain through a causal loop diagram, employing a system dynamics approach. The recommended scenario involves adding an essential oil processing industry as an additional participant in the citronella oil supply chain network. The simulation model's results over the period from 2023 to 2027 indicate an increase in profits for each stakeholder in the upstream citronella oil supply chain. The total profit of the upstream supply chain amounts to USD 2,284,829, representing a 52.3% increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chili pepper is an important commodity with 34.4% of its production in Indonesia coming from the province of East Java. However, the productivity of chili pepper is still below the national average, even with the largest harvested area. This study aims to find alternative solutions using a system dynamics approach to increase the productivity of chili pepper. The scenario results show that the application of Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) will increase the average productivity by 16.41%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food security remains a critical concern in Indonesia, prompting the need for adequate food availability nationwide. Maize, as a prominent staple crop, faces demand imbalances across the country. To address this issue, a system dynamics model is developed to analyze the dynamics of maize supply and demand in East Java. The model captures the non-linear and dynamic relationships inherent in maize production and consumption. Through a rigorous research methodology, this study presents a comprehensive system dynamics model that depicts the current state and dynamics of maize supply. The key findings shed light on the factors influencing maize availability in East Java and provide insights for policymakers to enhance food security. By utilizing a systems approach, this research contributes to the understanding of maize supply dynamics and supports the development of strategies to ensure sufficient food supply in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to analyze uncertainty factors to provide knowledge and information regarding significant obstacles in developing geothermal energy in Indonesia. To achieve this, Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis method was adopted. The results showed that four uncertainty factors have significant influence on the achievement of geothermal development in terms of total installed capacity, total revenue, and profit. Delay due to bureaucracy, social acceptance, exploration duration, and exploration permit processing time had 68% influence on total installed capacity and profit. Meanwhile, electricity price had 44% impact on total revenue. In conclusion, focus should be given to policy interventions such as streamlining bureaucratic processes, reducing delays, and shortening processing times, to enhance installed capacity and profit growth in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research was conducted to assess the effectiveness of the policy with System Dynamics based on the threat of the COVID-19 hazard in Sukoharjo Regency. This research employs a stock-flow diagram approach, which is a component of system dynamics. Data collection is done by documentation techniques. The COVID-19 hazard assessment uses indicators in the form of crowd points, settlement density, and the number of cases considering that the research area is one of the growth areas of Surakarta City. The stock-flow diagram approach is used to assess the effectiveness of the policy by modeling several policy scenarios such as implementing vaccines, quarantine, providing care, health protocols, or disaster risk reduction habits combined with the COVID-19 hazard factors in areas with a high threat classification. The results revealed that the Kartasura District, Grogol District, and Mojolaban District have significant COVID-19 threats. The hazard factor for COVID-19 in Sukoharjo Regency is the density of settlements, roads, and the centers of crowds in the area, considering that these three areas are close to Surakarta City. The result showed that the implementation of quarantine and vaccination can have a positive effect on slowing the spread of COVID-19. The implementation of quarantine can have a positive effect on slowing the spread of COVID-19 with community participation in the Jogo Tonggo Movement, thus forming a community survival strategy in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic. This model produces insights for policy solutions to decrease viral propagation in places with a high COVID-19 threat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Indonesian Journal of Animal & Veterinary Sciences / Jurnal Ilmu Ternak dan Veteriner is the property of Indonesian Center for Animal Science Research & Development and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Previous stunting-related studies focus more on causes or determinants of stunting. Little is known about factors contributing to the success of stunting reduction programs. This study aims to fill those gaps using a case study from Ende District, Province of Nusa Tenggara Timur, Indonesia. A group model-building workshop with stunting-related stakeholders was conducted in November 2021. The system dynamic approach in the form of a causal loop diagram was used. Five variables related to the stunting reduction program were included in the analysis: the budget for the stunting reduction program; stunting-related stakeholder's cooperation and coordination; sufficient water supply; the ability of the related stakeholders to execute the program; and water, sanitation, and hygiene-related behavior. We found that the budget for the program and the cooperation and coordination between stakeholders were the most influential variables in the system. The feedback loop between these 2 variables was also the most prominent in the system, suggesting that sufficient funding and strong collaboration between stakeholders could lead to successful stunting reduction programs. Finally, this study implies that the stunting reduction programs in developing countries should be seen holistically and improvement should be conducted in all aspects, including financial, institutional, environmental, technical, and social. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. This study's background was inspired by the current COVID-19 handling policy, which focuses on the balance of public health and social economy. However, there is a knowledge gap on the dynamic complexity of balancing public health and social economy during the new normal period of COVID-19 handling policy. A system dynamics simulation of the COVID-19 handling policy could be used to understand that gap. Objective. This study aims to uncover the simulation of the COVID-19 handling policy in Indonesia. Methods. This study combined quantitative and qualitative modeling methods with a system dynamics tool. Results. This study revealed 3 elements in the dynamic balance of public health and social economy in the COVID handling policy system: i) COVID-19 and social-economic control; ii) COVID-19 escalation and de-escalation; iii) people's immunity enhancement. Such a mix of COVID-19-controlling policy instruments has maintained a dynamic equilibrium between easing economic suppression at the expense of worsening COVID-19 and tightening public health resolution at the expense of more economic suppression. Conclusions. The study conclusions are as follows: i) the COVID-19 handling policy worked as a leverage factor in balancing public health resolution and economic interest during the new normal period in Indonesia; ii) experiential creativity to respond to the newly serious public health problems triggered by COVID-19 implies adding public health knowledge; iii) the study's outcomes imply re-examining the strengths and deficiencies of the entire health system for a better health system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indonesia's final energy demand is projected to increase by 70% in the next decade, with electricity expected to account for 32%. The increasing electricity demand poses a potential threat to national emissions reduction targets since fossil fuels generated 86% of the electricity in 2018, associated to 50% of the national CO2 emissions. Indonesia plans to reduce its CO2 emissions by 29% by increasing the total electricity generated from renewables, using a set of market-based and regulatory policies. However, economic, social, and environmental issues may arise from the widespread adoption of renewable energy. This study explores the economic, social, and environmental effects of renewable energy policies in the electricity sector. Our work presents an advance over previous studies that attempted to understand the electricity sector energy transition from a system perspective by exploring the structural feedback between it and economic, energy, and environmental systems. This enables the assessment of different energy policies using more macro indicators, which further emphasize the novelty of our work. A combination of system dynamics modelling and a policy analysis framework was applied to explore these issues. Our study proposes a dynamic hypothesis that the price of energy increases over time, in the absence of substitution, becoming a limiting factor in the transition to renewables in the electricity sector. The fiscal budget was found to be a bottleneck for renewable energy adoption in the electricity sector in Indonesia. We found that a fossil fuel depletion premium could be a potential supporting policy to enable the smooth phasing-out of fossil fuels and support a sustainable energy transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recurring wildfires on degraded peatlands throughout Central Kalimantan have resulted in severe economic and social impacts for local people along with globally significant environmental impacts. The interdependence between the livelihoods of local villagers and wildfire is not well understood in areas of degraded peat in proximity to urban environments. Aims: The aim of the study was to consider fire hotspots in two villages close to the regional capital of Palangka Raya. These were Kalampangan, a Javanese transmigrant farming village, and Tumbang Nusa, a Dayaknese fishing village. Methods: A system dynamics model was constructed to study the factors contributing to greenhouse gas emissions and wildfire extent resulting from long-term peatland degradation. The model was used to analyse existing policy scenarios where degraded peatlands are cultivated in perpetuity, and then consider hypothetical future policy scenarios where efforts are made to rewet and rehabilitate peatland while alternative livelihoods are enabled. Conclusions: Analysis reveals that the assumption within the model of unconstrained alternative livelihoods is insufficient to facilitate full rewetting where the incumbent livelihood is reliant on drained peatland. Implications: Only when livelihood alternatives displace drained peatland cultivation is full rewetting and sustained reduction in fire risk achievable in both villages. Significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions were only achieved with full rewetting. Unconstrained availability of livelihood alternatives will not lead to full rewetting where drained peatland cultivation supports the incumbent livelihood. Livelihood alternatives displacing drained peatland cultivation are essential for sustained reduction in fire risk and GHG emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to determine the impact of Indonesian government policies on the supply chain resilience of the ferronickel industry in Indonesia. The existing problem is that the law prohibits nickel ore exports, and the policy of industrial downstream causes delays in the process of nickel processing. The problems happen because Indonesia's nickel industry is still incapable of downstream. As a result, the nickel supply chain faces dynamic and complex events that can disrupt operational activities. At the same time, supply chains need to withstand and recover from disruptions quickly. Therefore, Supply Chain Resilience, which is the ability to survive, adapt, and recover from disruptions to meet customer needs, is needed. This study uses system dynamics to analyze complex and dynamic systems to provide more practical policy advice. The system dynamics model starts by building a conceptual model through a system diagram. Inside the model is a causal loop diagram, then proceeds with developing a quantitative stock flow diagram (SFD) model. Finally, this SFD model operated with several scenarios used as policy suggestions for the Indonesian government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study is to elaborate on the development of micro and small enterprises (MSEs) at the bottom of the economy, where most of them began as unbanked micro-ventures and may continue to be micro-enterprises even after being elevated to higher levels. This study contributes to the field of entrepreneurial finance by identifying the factors that influence the drivers and constraints of MSE upgrading. This paper employed models to show how unbanked MSEs transition to bankable ones, as well as to reveal the dynamics of MSEs' transition to bankability during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study's unit of analysis is MSEs, which initially have little or no access to bank loans. This study employs system dynamics (SD) modeling to investigate and manage the multifaceted response system of MSEs' growth toward bankability in the face of a coronavirus pandemic in Indonesia. This study also simulates a coronavirus pandemic outbreak to fine-tune MSEs' progress toward bankability. The dynamic models in this study reveal a number of variables that are critical in accelerating the bankability status of MSE from un-bankable to bankable, namely entrepreneurial MSE time to bankability, channel business, and MSE NPL. Policymakers can create high leverage policies for MSE bankability progression by changing these values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indonesia is a leading producer of a wide range of minerals, including copper. Nonetheless, the copper-based industry in Indonesia is still not well developed, especially the limited number of products from the intermediate copper industry which will become raw materials for its downstream industry. The underdeveloped intermediate copper industry has forced Indonesia to import several types of copper-based semi-finished products to meet the needs of the downstream industry. On the other hand, the mining industry still exports copper concentrate and some copper cathodes produced by smelting. As a result, the added value obtained by Indonesia from copper is not optimal. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct research on the copper industry chain and to estimate the increase in added value that could be generated. In this study, a system dynamics (SD) model was developed. During the simulation period of 2020 to 2030, the total added value along the copper industry chain that can be obtained is USD 70,422,840,000 if the planned smelter and refinery is completed in 2023 to process all domestic concentrates and to increase intermediate industry capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indonesia has one of the world's biggest geothermal energy reserves, accounting for 28.61 Gigawatts of electric energy (GWe). However, as of 2022, the installed geothermal capacity in Indonesia was only around 2.175 GWe, just 7.6% of its estimated potential. Geothermal energy development is required for Indonesia to empower sustainable energy systems and achieve its target of reaching 7.2 GW of geothermal energy by 2025. The geothermal energy sector is viewed as a complex dynamic system, with complicated challenges, including technical, financial, infrastructure, and many other issues. The purpose of this paper is to understand the complex nature of geothermal systems in Indonesia. To that end, this paper examines the geothermal development from a systematic and holistic standpoint, employing the interview technique to enable the conceptualization of the geothermal systems using the system dynamics (SD) approach. The SD model exhibits several underlying and important factors influencing the development of geothermal energy in Indonesia, such as capital investment, the collection of upstream data to reduce risk, infrastructure construction, pricing, incentives, permit procedures, environmental concerns, and public acceptance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coconut shortage has been a concerning issue in Indonesia for the past few years. Using a system dynamics (SD) approach and the supply and demand ratio (S/D ratio), this study aims to build a simulation model for the sustainability of coconut supply in Indonesia. The result shows that the S/D ratio will fall below 1 by 2023, indicating that the supply will no longer meet the demands. The model suggests that the most effective policy is doubling the coconut plantations areas and increasing the yield up to 2 tons/ha of copra. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growth of vehicle use in Indonesia continues to increase, which is in line with the population growth. The increase in the number of vehicles, mostly using fossil fuels, has an impact on increasing pollution. Transportation is the biggest contributor to pollution. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the livability of the transportation system by reducing air pollution through the quality improvement of public transport. The research method used is a system thinking approach. The result of this study is the creation of a causal loop diagram that can be used as an input in mitigating carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indonesia is a large archipelagic country. This position triggers various forms of threats to national interests, especially maritime security. Therefore, Indonesia needs to balance it with adequate maritime security capabilities and strengths. One strategy is to build a new Naval Base (Lanal) in a strategic area, Tanjung Benoa. By using system dynamics, we investigate the impact of this development. Simulations are done for the short, medium, and long-term port development. The results show that the variables that affect are port utility and capacity. Hence, the development in this new port can increase Lanal support for Indonesia Navy Ships operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Lesser Sunda Archipelago offers exceptional potential as a model system for studying the dynamics of dispersal-driven diversification. The geographic proximity of the islands suggests the possibility for successful dispersal, but this is countered by the permanence of the marine barriers and extreme intervening currents that are expected to hinder gene flow. Phylogenetic and species delimitation analyses of flying lizards (genus Draco) using single mitochondrial genes, complete mitochondrial genomes, and exome-capture data sets identified 9–11 deeply divergent lineages including single-island endemics, lineages that span multiple islands, and parapatrically distributed nonsister lineages on the larger islands. Population clustering and PCA confirmed these genetic boundaries with isolation-by-distance playing a role in some islands or island sets. While gdi estimates place most candidate species comparisons in the ambiguous zone, migration estimates suggest 9 or 10 species exist with nuclear introgression detected across some intra-island contact zones. Initial entry of Draco into the archipelago occurred at 5.5–7.5 Ma, with most inter-island colonization events having occurred between 1–3 Ma. Biogeographical model testing favors scenarios integrating geographic distance and historical island connectivity, including an initial stepping-stone dispersal process from the Greater Sunda Shelf through the Sunda Arc as far eastward as Lembata Island. However, rather than reaching the adjacent island of Pantar by dispersing over the 15-km wide Alor Strait, Draco ultimately reached Pantar (and much of the rest of the archipelago) by way of a circuitous route involving at least five overwater dispersal events. These findings suggest that historical geological and oceanographic conditions heavily influenced dispersal pathways and gene flow, which in turn drove species formation and shaped species boundaries. [Biogeography; genomics, Indonesia; lizards; phylogeography; reptiles] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A system dynamics (SD) model was developed for assessing the impact of river restoration plans on the sustainability of water resources based on a case study of the Upper-Middle Ciliwung river basin in Indonesia. The river restoration scenarios were used to compare the impact of proposed river restoration activities, specifically, the use of processed wastewater (reclaimed water), increased agricultural water demand efficiency, agricultural land reduction, and inter-basin water transfer. Based on the evaluation without river restoration plans, the relative water stress indicator (RWSI) shows a value > 0.4, which means that a basin is in a highly stressed and critical condition. By combining various restoration plans, the RWSI value was < 0.4, which means the river restoration plans restored the sustainability of the water resources in the basin. The SD model was developed to understand and seek solutions for decision-makers in sustainable water resource management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, Twitter is used as an Early Warning System (EWS) for disasters because of the speed and many users. Based on Asosiasi Penyedia Jasa Internet Indonesia (APJII) data, in 2017, almost 50% of internet users in Indonesia are born in 1983-1998. They are called the millennial generation. Therefore, this study aims to explore the trust of millennials towards Twitter as an EWS. This study utilizes the conceptual model from System Dynamics named Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) to identify the factors and the causal relationship among millennials' factors to trust Twitter as an EWS. It involves ten participants from the millennial generation, consisting of five passive Twitter users and five active Twitter users. A semi-structured interview was conducted with all participants to build the initial CLD gathered from each participant's perspective. Afterward, the initial CLD was verified by all participants through Focus Group Discussion. A group model building CLD that represents the influencing factors and their causal relationship of millennial generation trust in Twitter as EWS for a natural disaster is successfully developed from this study. The tweet frequency, the number of followers, the account credibility, the verified account, the level of trust in social media, and the content quality are considered the underlying factors of active and passive users to trust in Twitter as an EWS natural disaster. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poultry products such as chicken and eggs are part of staple foods and a source of protein in Indonesia so their availability for consumers needs to be ensured. Besides that, there is also a pressing need to reduce imports and keep prices stable. In Indonesia, poultry products are consumed more than beef, fish, and other staple protein products. This paper aims to develop a model of poultry product-supply chain using System Dynamics (SD) approach to a) capture the causality between variables in the availability of corn supply, feed mills, chicken production and customer demand; and b) to create a scenario where commodity demands can be fulfilled adequately so that food security can be strengthened. As the main ingredient of poultry feed, corn produce can be increased by using a tight planting method and the use of superior seeds. The sustainable availability of chicken feed is then expected to help boost poultry produce, in addition to improving the chicken farming methods per se. The proposed model is expected to provide a better understanding of poultry product food chain, which will subsequently inform relevant policymakers in formulating strategic programmes to strengthen food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The National Health Insurance System (NHIS) is a government program to help the health needs of its population such as in Indonesia (INHIS). However, there are obstacles to implementing it, which is shown by the results of program evaluations every year that there is a deficit problem, starting in 2014 until 2019 to and even expected to increase in the following years. One of the possible deficits is due to inefficient patient behavior and referral system which will affect the premium amount. The goal is to evaluate and plan further policies with efficient premiums amount. System dynamics is used to simulate the effects of ability-to-pay, willingness-to-pay, salary, age, health cost each customer, and fund inventory. The historical data are used from INHIS from 2014 to 2019, then projected until 2030. The simulation results show that the health costs considered for determining the premiums are critical to the financial stability. If the premium is not in accordance with the customer's ability, the government will have to subsidise to avoid deficit. In addition, PPU customers who are already retired will automatically become to BP customers, which will also affect INHIS 'financial condition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To achieve the self-sufficiency of salt, prices need to be considered. This study develops a dynamic simulation model of salt supply chains to analyze the significant factors affecting prices from upstream to Indonesia's downstream levels. A set of dynamic simulation models is developed to achieve competitive prices using system dynamics. Furthermore, the system dynamics framework is utilized because it can model non-linear behavior between variables with a significant contribution to the system. Based on the simulation results, local and imported salt prices may compete by implementing land integration systems. This system is likely to reduce production costs and increase farmers' revenues to IDR 61,211,892 at the end of the simulation in 2035. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indonesia has an enormous solar energy potential equivalent to 207.8 Gigawatt (GW) of power generation because of its equatorial location. Nevertheless, solar energy development in Indonesia is still considerably low, with no more than 3% of household consumers using solar energy (estimated 2018). Building a large-scale grid-connected photovoltaics (PV) system offers an excellent opportunity to boost solar energy development. However, it requires a considerable investment that the government cannot currently provide. One feasible solution is through the distributed PV system adoption, such as the household rooftop PV. Net metering and net billing have been implemented as policy instruments to increase the household rooftop PV adoption, but their effectiveness was never assessed. Therefore, this study aims to examine the effectiveness of the two policy instruments by analyzing and understanding the dynamic complexity of the household rooftop PV adoption using system dynamics approach incorporated with policy analysis framework. The findings suggest that the net metering is more effective than the net billing in boosting the household rooftop PV adoption. The study also emphasizes the importance of taking a systems perspective to acquire a sufficient understanding of the dynamic complexity of solar energy development for a better evaluation of energy policy. • Taking a systems perspective is important for better renewable energy policy. • Net metering and net billing are key system components in Rooftop PV adoption. • We assess the effectiveness of net metering and net billing policies with system dynamics. • Net metering is more effective than net billing in boosting rooftop PV adoption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cananga essential oil is a type of oil extracted by distillation from freshly-picked cananga flowers. Cananga oil is of a high economic value for its use as fragrances and flavors. In Indonesia, cananga essential oil is majorly produced by small and medium distillers. The most prominent barrier to cananga essential oil production in Indonesia is the fluctuation in its price. This price fluctuation is responsible for the decrease in profits earned by distillers. The aim of this research was to develop a system dynamics model to maximize profits in the cananga essential oil production in Indonesia. A system dynamics approach was employed to figure out the effect of some variables on cananga essential oil production in relation to profits and the interaction of such variables with each other. The scenarios examined in this system dynamics model include to increase the number of distillers, to decrease the fuel expenses, and a combination of both. This research assumed that a change in parameter will be able to increase profits from the cananga essential oil production in Indonesia over the next five years. The results show that increasing the number of distillers and decreasing the fuel expenses have been able to increase cananga essential oil production average by 20% and profits by 62%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reservoir operation and maintenance costs consist of the water service fee from the beneficial water users, and the subsidy from the government. Sustainable operation and maintenance should keep the government subsidy at the minimum level while at the same time considering the willingness to pay from the water users. These two parameters of subsidy and water service fee form an interdependent feedback loop in determining operation and maintenance costs, that belong to the system dynamics phenomenon. This paper calculates the level of government subsidy and the water services fee in order to reach optimal water resources management using a system dynamics approach, in the Jatigede multipurpose reservoir in West Java - Indonesia. Jatigede Reservoir with a volume of 877 million m3 irrigates almost 90 thousand hectares of rice field, providing a public water supply of 3.5 m3/s, and a targeted energy generation of 110 MW. The methodology of using the system dynamics approach is starting with the identification of the interrelated parameters into a causal loop diagram, conversion into stock and flow diagram, and programming using Powersim. It is concluded that the system dynamics approach can reveal the optimal solution, a combination of minimum government subsidy and water services fee within the range of willingness to pay, that minimize the additional maintenance costs in the long term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) has become an endemic in major cities in Indonesia. Climate change, and poor level of awareness and knowledge of the community in Indonesia causes the case of DHF to continue to exist and it tends to increase. In the extraordinary events in 2015 the morbidity rate reached 50.75. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) prediction in 1996 stated that the incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Indonesia will increase threefold from 2070, if the environment and community conditions do not change. This study aims to produce a system dynamics model with ecological analysis to determine the dynamics of the DHF incidence with climate variability patterns in Depok and Bogor. The design of this study is ecologic study with hypothesis test, modeling, simulation, and intervention. Interviews with respondents include the level of knowledge, attitudes, and behavior (PSP) of the community. Measurement of climate factor includes rainfall, temperature, humidity, and CO2 level in the ambient environment. The results of DHF system dynamics model simulation show the program intervention scenario that has the most significant effect on the decline of Breeding Places and the decrease of DHF cases by increasing the participation of the community to actively control water places that are potential for mosquito breeding places. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Navy Base as an integral component of the SSAT is the spearhead of the force in carrying out support for naval combat operations, especially as a support for the movement of KRI operations. During this time we have determined the location of the Navy Base only based on the results of the workgroup team's decision.??? (verb)This study aims to design and build a model of the selection of the Navy Base location with a dynamic System and Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) approach. This research is expected to contribute to the development of the Indonesian Navy base to support national maritime security. Based on the results of the research analysis as many as 4 main criteria and 15 sub-criteria that have interactions with base sustainability can be established. The sub-criterion of changing the value of sea security is influenced by 6 sub-criteria with Output, namely the value of national security. Aspects of the rate of base defense strength are influenced by 6 (six) sub-criteria with Output, namely the value of maritime potential development. The aspect rate of the number of SSATs is influenced by 5 (five) sub-criteria with outputs namely the development value of maritime potential. Base defense value, Marine Territorial Development value, sea security value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to develop an urban transportation planning through the use of system dynamics simulation model. This planning includes congestion mitigation through demand and capacity management, the improvement of public transport sector, and the urban mobility improvement. System dynamics simulation model was used to test and evaluate some alternative policies for urban transportation planning. Simulation results show that mobility depends on travel time, the fulfilment ratio of public transport supply and demand, the effectiveness of public transport transfer distance and transfer time, as well as the access time. Traffic congestion is influenced by the internal factor and external events. This study was conducted at Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia, which is the fourth most congested city in the world. The original scientific contributions of this research include model formulation and development of the daily traffic, urban mobility, and congestion; predictive analysis of the future daily traffic; scenarios development to increase mobility and reduce congestion by considering the internal and external factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Health Safety Security and Environmental (HSSE) are common concept used to assess company’s operating performance and their supply chain majority in prominent company with high risk exposure. However, this concept has largely been underutilized within the ferry port terminal’s operation. This study asks whether the HSSE principles can applied in the ferry port terminal in Indonesia in regard sustainable aspect. In particular, it examines whether Ferry port terminal of Merak can be considered as Ecoseaport. It focuses on major ferry port terminals at inter-island hub because of the increasing volume and movement of people and vehicles in the last five years. This research is aligned with the Indonesia government policy on ‘Maritime Axis’ and is relevant with the cancellation of the Sunda Strait bridge development. Through at system dynamics simulation, this research ultimately aims to contribute to the improvement of knowledge of stakeholders that will influence a concept formulation and implementation of policy and stands appropriately of HSSE aspect. A System Dynamics approach of this research is intended to analysis and formulated all those elements involved in ferry port terminal operation against wharf capacity, port carrying and supportive capacity, passenger, vehicle and motorcycle inflow and vessel availability to transporting and movement. It was concluded that during Muslim’s feast period with number of passenger, motorcycle and vehicle stock were drastically increased than normal operation. This will affect to HSSE performance, especially health aspect which corresponding with escalate on number patient to be visited to health posts against safety, security and environmental dimension. Whilst vessel frequency for passenger and vehicle loading purpose are stagnant mode since in 2018 as per simulation being constructed. Meanwhile, health cases reported by port medical officer is becomes major concerned which need takes into attention by port management operation and governmental related parties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Essential oils have a high economic value because of their utilities as perfumes, food flavors, and medicinal raw materials. Indonesia is one of the countries producing and exporting essential oils in the world, although the development of Indonesian essential oils industry has not been able to meet global demand. The main problem of Indonesian essential oils marketing is the fluctuating in price. Some research conducted only focus on certain factors that influence the dynamics of Indonesian essential oils prices, but no researches have integrated factors that influence the dynamics. An integrated model, in which all variables that influence the dynamics of Indonesian essential oils prices are illustrated in a relationship between variables, will help policy makers to understand the system better. This research uses a systems dynamic approach, a conceptual framework that has been developed to show various factors that have an impact on fluctuating prices of Indonesian essential oils. A causal loop diagram is developed based on literature review and statistical analysis, while regression analysis is used to validate the framework. The Causal loop diagram illustrates the reciprocal relationship between several variables that affect the dynamics of fluctuating prices of essential oils. This framework can be used as a basis for further research related to the development of the essential oils agro-industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

E-money is an embodiment of a modern banking system that uses a means of payment using cards or applications that are already connected to a bank account. Every year e-money users increase significantly, but the increase is not accompanied by an increase in transactions made using e-money. Last year, it was noted that e-money users were only 35% active. Some clinical studies have established an assessment of service quality, there are several dimensions that are assessed according to the topic of the study. The dimensions of service quality used in this study are dimensions of ease of use, reliability, responsiveness, privacy, and security. It is important to develop a systems analysis approach that can be used for the development and evaluation of service quality, both at the tactical and strategic level. This study aims to present a taxonomic analysis of the dynamic system approach for modeling and simulating customer satisfaction on the quality of e-money services. By using a dynamic system, a model can be drawn that describes the relationship of dimensions on service quality, so that it can be used as a reference to create new policies in order to increase customer satisfaction. The results of this modeling are subjective frameworks to assist companies in making policies that are suitable for increasing customer satisfaction and loyalty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rice (Oryza Sativa) is a staple food for the people in Indonesia. East Java Province is a province with potential agricultural in Indonesia. East Java has advantages in agriculture and has a role in the national food sector. Population in Indonesia is projected to reach 271.1 million by 2020. East Java's population growth rate from 2010 to 2017 was 0.64% with consumption of 213,783 tons of rice in 2018. Raw materials such as paddy, are perishable materials that require fast and precise handling. When handling is not right it will cause a loss of the results of high quality and quantity, this can be harmful to farmers because it will affect their income. This study uses a system dynamic to build the conceptual model (Causal Loop Diagram) to improving the quality of paddy yields to support food security. The results of study are a model that has some useful information regarding factors that affect the quality paddy. This can be used as decision support by the government for decision making about policies that will be applied to improve the quality of paddy harvest yields for support food security. Further research can be carried out by simulating several scenarios to predict the state of the rice farming system in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Salt demands in Indonesia have continued to increase over the past decade, while salt production fluctuates and still depends on weather conditions. This makes salt imports tend to increase and salt self-sufficiency is difficult to achieve. Indonesia needs serious efforts to achieve self-sufficiency, both consumption salt and industrial salt. In this study we identify problems that exist in the salt industry and determine the factors that have a significant effect on the system. The national salt production system is represented in a dynamic model using the System Dynamic. We use System Dynamic based on the consideration that this framework offers the ability to combine expert knowledge in the model and the ability to model non-linear behavior that has a significant contribution to the national salt production. System dynamic modeling is also able to associate between variables in a closed causal loop so that actions taken by changing one variable will have an impact on the initial conditions. From the base model simulation results, we developed several scenarios to increase salt fulfillment ratio. To support the sustainability of the salt business, we make a price scenario that supports salt business remains profitable for farmers. To increase salt production, we provide a scenario of increasing productivity through optimal technology implementation. As a result of the two scenarios, total salt production reaches 5 million tons per year. The fulfillment ratio of consumption salt and industrial salt can be achieved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: First, the purpose of this paper is to develop some policies as an alternative scenario to increase the performance of the Indonesian dairy milk supply chain so it can fulfil the target of the government. Second, this study aims to find the best alternative scenario based on the performance resulted from the simulation. Design/methodology/approach: The paper develops a system dynamics-based model by using six approaches, i.e. "population and consumption of dairy milk", "national milk production", "dairy cattle feed", "dairy cattle population", "profit gained by the dairy farmer", and "government policy". Findings: There is no best scenario; however, the combined scenario can give the better condition to achieve the targets set by the government. Research limitations/implications: The limitations of this study include: the relationship between the levels of welfare of farmers and the desire being a dairy farmer is not modelled; the quality of milk is only determined by the content of fat and protein in one litre of milk, and the level of milk consumption per capita increases naturally without any intervention or policy from the government. Practical implications: This study provides essential insights into the context of implementing the policies in the Indonesian dairy supply chain. Social implications: The research revealed that good policies scenario could be built after simulating and analysing the effect of each scenario on the performance of a dairy supply chain carefully. Originality/value: This study does not test one policy in isolation. It simultaneously tests various combinations of policy that related to dairy cattle import, operational assistance for dairy cooperative and dairy farmer that may help maximise the performance of the Indonesian dairy milk supply chain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study was aimed at creating policy formulation in oil palm biodiesel to meet the mandatory biodiesel requirement in order to reach energy security in Indonesia. A system dynamics model was used to formulate policy recommendations. Identification of policies related to the existing biodiesel development was done. Current policies were analyzed to result in possible new policies to add in. The existing and new policies were then used as variables to develop a system dinamics model. The model was developed by taking into account the stakeholders involved in the supply chain system of biodiesel as a fuel mix. Existing policy formulation included CPO disincentive, interest rate relief for investment in biodiesel plant, tax exemption or reduction for import of technology or equipment for biodiesel plant, subsidy of Rp1 million per kl for mixed diesel-biodiesel products. These policies did not make biodiesel mandatory target achieved. Additional policies were needed in order to achieve biodiesel mandatory target. These included biodiesel production capacity increment, provision of incentives for biodiesel feedstock, plant productivity increment, provision of subsidy for biodiesel product to make it reach its economic price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The phenomenon of rapid economic growth has caused a rise in energy consumption in Jakarta, including a rise in the need for electricity. To supply the population's needs, Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), Indonesia's state-owned electricity company has a plan to build an additional power plant; the energy industry in Indonesia is currently dominated by coal-based power plants. However, this mega project will have an impact on Jakarta's economy (gross domestic regional product, GDRP) and the CO2 emissions will have an effect as a result of the social cost of carbon because the coal-fired power plant has the highest emission rate compared with other power-plant types. Through the system-dynamics (SD) approach, this study aimed to examine several alternative policy scenarios and determine the best options that can be applied by the Jakarta government to ensure the success of electricity production, which can help to grow Jakarta's economy and minimize the effects of CO2 emissions simultaneously. Three policies were simulated in the model: business as usual (BAU), a green policy, and a good economic policy. The results of simulation show that each scenario has its own advantages and disadvantages to achieve government target. This study reveals that using combination of green and economic policy is highly recommended to help Jakarta's growth sustainably. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]