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Understanding the complexity and feedbacks among food, energy, and water (FEW) systems is key to making informed decisions about sustainable development. This paper presents qualitative representation and quantitative system dynamics simulation of the water resources system in the Qazvin Plain, Iran, taking into account the energy intensity of water supply and interconnected water use sectors (e.g., urban, industrial, and agricultural). Qazvin Plain faces water resources challenges that are common to arid/semi-arid areas, including frequent droughts, declining surface water and groundwater, and increased urban and agricultural water demand. A system dynamics model is developed using historical data (2006–2016) to investigate the effects of anticipated dynamics of integrated water and energy sectors in the next two decades. The results of policy scenarios (2020–2039) demonstrate that the continuation of the existing management policies will cause severe damage to the water and energy sectors, pushing the system towards water resources limits to growth. An annual groundwater table decline of nearly 1 m is anticipated, indicating significant overshoot of the plain's natural recharge capacity, which may lead to the depletion of recoverable groundwater in the plain within the next three decades. The groundwater table decline will cause energy consumption of water supply to increase by about 32% (i.e., 380 GWh) to maintain irrigated agriculture. It is critical to implement a combination of water demand and supply management policies (e.g., net agricultural water savings and recycling treated wastewater) to delay the problem of water limits to growth in the region. • We present a system dynamics of model integrated water and energy sectors in an agricultural region. • The model facilitates evaluation of water management policies using a food-energy water nexux approach. • Policies that facilitate net agricultural water savings and water reuse can delay groundwater depletion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the first groundwater‒energy‒food (GEF) nexus study of Iran's agronomic crops based on national and provincial datasets and firsthand estimates of agricultural groundwater withdrawal. We use agronomic crop production, water withdrawal, and energy consumption data to estimate groundwater withdrawal from electric-powered irrigation wells and examine agronomic productivity in Iran's 31 provinces through the lens of GEF nexus. The ex-post GEF analysis sheds light on some of the root causes of the nation's worsening water shortage problems. Access to highly subsidized water (surface water and groundwater) and energy has been the backbone of agricultural expansion policies in Iran, supporting employment in agrarian communities. Consequently, water use for agronomic crop production has greatly overshot the renewable water supply capacity of the country, making water bankruptcy a serious national security threat. Significant groundwater table decline across the country and increasing energy consumption underscore dysfunctional feedback relations between agricultural water and energy price and groundwater withdrawal in an inefficient agronomic sector. Thus, it is essential to implement holistic policy reforms aimed at reducing agricultural water consumption to alleviate the looming water bankruptcy threats, which can lead to the loss of numerous agricultural jobs in the years to come. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]