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Purpose: After the identification of a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) at Wuhan, China, a pandemic was widely spread worldwide. In Italy, about 240,000 people were infected because of this virus including 34,721 deaths until the end of June 2020. To control this new pandemic, epidemiologists recommend the enforcement of serious mitigation measures like country lockdown, contact tracing or testing, social distancing and self-isolation. Design/methodology/approach: This paper presents the most popular epidemic model of susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I) and recovered (R) collectively called SEIR to understand the virus spreading among the Italian population. Findings: Developed SEIR model explains the infection growth across Italy and presents epidemic rates after and before country lockdown. The results demonstrated that follow-up of strict measures such that country lockdown along with high testing is making Italy practically a pandemic-free country. Originality/value: These models largely help to estimate and understand how an infectious agent spreads in a particular country and how individual factors can affect the dynamics. Further studies like classical SEIR modeling can improve the quality of data and implementation of this modeling could represent a novelty of epidemic models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The knowledge of essential insights into Marche, Italy in particular to virus transmission dynamics. • Geographical characteristics, and the imposing of mitigation measures to fight against the COVID-19 outbreak. • The outbreak SI distribution Marche region is estimated R0 is 1.852 (0.6–2.3) with 95% CI. • The prediction of cumulative incidences of four-week projection with 95% CI was 12 (7–), 31 (18–), 63 (21–), and 121 (26–) respectively. COVID-19 disease is becoming a global pandemic and more than 200 countries were affected because of this disease. Italy is one of the countries is largely suffered with this virus outbreak, and about 180,000 cases (as of 20 April 2020) were registered which explains the large transmissibility and reproduction case numbers. In this study, we considered the Marche region of Italy to compute different daily transmission rates (R t) including five provinces in it. We also present forecasting of daily and cumulative incidences associated after the next thirty days. The Marche region is the 8th in terms of number of people infected in Italy and the first in terms of diffusion of the infection among the 4 regions of the center of Italy. Epidemic statistics were extracted from the national Italian Health Ministry website. We considered outbreak information where the first case registered in Marche with onset symptoms (26 February 2020) to the present date (20 April 2020). Adoption of incidence and projections with R statistics was done. The median values of R t for the five provinces of Pesaro and Urbano, Ancona, Fermo, Ascoli Piceno, and Macerata, was 2.492 (1.1–4.5), 2.162 (1.0–4.0), 1.512 (0.75–2.75), 1.141 (1.0–1.6), and 1.792 (1.0–3.5) with 95% of CI achieved. The projections at end of 30th day of the cumulative incidences 323 (95% CI), and daily incidences 45 (95% CI) could be possible. This study highlights the knowledge of essential insights into the Marche region in particular to virus transmission dynamics, geographical characteristics of positive incidences, and the necessity of implementing mitigation procedures to fight against the COVID-19 outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Workers at sea have high mortality, injuries and illnesses and work in a hazardous environment compared to ashore workers. The present study was designed to measure the incidence of occupational injuries and diseases among seafarers and quantify the contribution of differences in rank and job onboard on seafarers' diseases and injuries rates., Design: Descriptive epidemiological study., Setting and Participants: This study's data were based on contacts (n=423) for medical requests from Compagnie Maritime d'Affrètement/Compagnie Générale Maritime (CMA-CGM) container ships to the Italian Telemedical Maritime Assistance Service in Rome from 2016 to 2019, supplemented by data on the estimated total at-risk seafarer population on container ships (n=13 475) over the study period., Outcome Measures: Distribution of injuries by anatomic location and types of diseases across seafarers' ranks and worksites. We determined the incidence rate and incidence rate ratio (IRR) with a 95% CI., Results: The total disease rate was 25 per 1000 seafarer-years, and the overall injury rate was 6.31 per 1000 seafarer-years over the 4 years study period. Non-officers were more likely than officers to have reported gastrointestinal (IRR 2.12, 95% CI 1.13 to 4.26), dermatological (IRR 3.66, 95% CI 1.27 to 14.42) and musculoskeletal (IRR 2.25, 95% CI 1.11 to 5.05) disorders onboard container ships. Deck workers were more likely than engine workers to be injured in the wrist and hand (IRR 3.25, 95% CI 1.19 to 10.23)., Conclusions: Rates of reported injury and disease were significantly higher among non- officers than officers; thus, this study suggests the need for rank-specific preventative measures. Future studies should consider risk factors for injury and disease among seafarers in order to propose further preventive measures., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Till 31 March 2020, 105,792 COVID-19 cases were confirmed in Italy including 15,726 deaths which explains how worst the epidemic has affected the country. After the announcement of lockdown in Italy on 9 March 2020, situation was becoming stable since last days of March. In view of this, it is important to forecast the COVID-19 evaluation of Italy condition and the possible effects, if this lock down could continue for another 60 days., Methods: COVID-19 infected patient data has extracted from the Italian Health Ministry website includes registered and recovered cases from mid February to end March. Adoption of seasonal ARIMA forecasting package with R statistical model was done., Results: Predictions were done with 93.75% of accuracy for registered case models and 84.4% of accuracy for recovered case models. The forecasting of infected patients could be reach the value of 182,757, and recovered cases could be registered value of 81,635 at end of May., Conclusions: This study highlights the importance of country lockdown and self isolation in control the disease transmissibility among Italian population through data driven model analysis. Our findings suggest that nearly 35% decrement of registered cases and 66% growth of recovered cases will be possible., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest No author does not have any conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier B.V.)