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Energy policies accompanying the transition towards a sustainable development process must be supported by technical analyses in which future energy scenarios are modeled and evaluated. This paper analyzes possible decarbonization scenarios in Italy for the year 2050. They envisage high electrification of transports and residential buildings, high use of renewable energies, and a modal shift towards public transport. The energy scenarios are evaluated using a software program, EnergyPLAN, starting from a reference model developed for the year 2014. Special attention has been given to the modeling of data that are unavailable in the literature, such as the time profile of heating and cooling demands, obtained with the degree-days method and validated by elaborating the results of the modeling of the residential building stock, this latter was dynamically simulated in TRNSYS. The results show that to obtain a significant decrease of greenhouse gas emissions and fossil fuel consumption, it is necessary not only to promote a deeper penetration of renewable sources, but also their integration with other technologies (cogeneration, trigeneration, power-to-heat systems, thermal storage, vehicle-to-grid operations). In fact, renewables technologies alone can raise some critical issues, such as excess and/or shortage of electricity production and non-sustainable exploitation of biomass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small Islands usually rely on fossil fuels for their energy supply and face common challenges such as high energy costs and carbon dioxide emissions. For these reasons they represent interesting cases for analysing the transition towards a clean and secure energy system. Nevertheless, integrating non-dispatchable Renewable Energy Sources in the power grid causes stability issues and this is particularly true for island grids. Such issue is not fully considered in long-term energy planning; indeed, an important factor that should be considered in order to ensure the reliability of the grid are Reserves. There are different types of Reserves depending on the reactiveness/response time and the duration of the service. In this paper, primary and secondary reserves have been analysed in order to plan the long-term energy transition of the small island of Favignana, Italy by means of the new version of H2RES, a Linear Programming single-objective optimisation model able to provide a long-term capacity investment and dispatching optimisation. It has been found that biomass generators are favoured to both photovoltaic and wind turbines for their ability to provide reserves and also decrease the unpredictability of the supply. Batteries and Electrolysers are also used mostly for reserve provision. • Primary and Secondary Reserves are embedded in long-term optimisation model. • Optimal energy Transition strategy towards Smart Island Energy System is found. • Biomass is the main renewable source since it reduces reserve requirement. • Electrolysers are operated for 85% of their usage time as downward reserve provider. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]