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Background: Lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) is the most common histologic subtype of lung cancer and has a high risk of distant metastasis at every disease stage. We aimed to characterize the genomic landscape of LUAD and identify mutation signatures associated with tumor progression., Methods and Findings: We performed an integrative genomic analysis, incorporating whole exome sequencing (WES), determination of DNA copy number and DNA methylation, and transcriptome sequencing for 101 LUAD samples from the Environment And Genetics in Lung cancer Etiology (EAGLE) study. We detected driver genes by testing whether the nonsynonymous mutation rate was significantly higher than the background mutation rate and replicated our findings in public datasets with 724 samples. We performed subclonality analysis for mutations based on mutant allele data and copy number alteration data. We also tested the association between mutation signatures and clinical outcomes, including distant metastasis, survival, and tumor grade. We identified and replicated two novel candidate driver genes, POU class 4 homeobox 2 (POU4F2) (mutated in 9 [8.9%] samples) and ZKSCAN1 (mutated in 6 [5.9%] samples), and characterized their major deleterious mutations. ZKSCAN1 was part of a mutually exclusive gene set that included the RTK/RAS/RAF pathway genes BRAF, EGFR, KRAS, MET, and NF1, indicating an important driver role for this gene. Moreover, we observed strong associations between methylation in specific genomic regions and somatic mutation patterns. In the tumor evolution analysis, four driver genes had a significantly lower fraction of subclonal mutations (FSM), including TP53 (p = 0.007), KEAP1 (p = 0.012), STK11 (p = 0.0076), and EGFR (p = 0.0078), suggesting a tumor initiation role for these genes. Subclonal mutations were significantly enriched in APOBEC-related signatures (p < 2.5×10-50). The total number of somatic mutations (p = 0.0039) and the fraction of transitions (p = 5.5×10-4) were associated with increased risk of distant metastasis. Our study's limitations include a small number of LUAD patients for subgroup analyses and a single-sample design for investigation of subclonality., Conclusions: These data provide a genomic characterization of LUAD pathogenesis and progression. The distinct clonal and subclonal mutation signatures suggest possible diverse carcinogenesis pathways for endogenous and exogenous exposures, and may serve as a foundation for more effective treatments for this lethal disease. LUAD's high heterogeneity emphasizes the need to further study this tumor type and to associate genomic findings with clinical outcomes., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. more...

Background: Population-based estimates of absolute risk of lung cancer recurrence, and of mortality rates after recurrence, can inform clinical management., Methods: We evaluated prognostic factors for recurrences and survival in 2098 lung cancer case patients from the general population of Lombardy, Italy, from 2002 to 2005. We conducted survival analyses and estimated absolute risks separately for stage IA to IIIA surgically treated and stage IIIB to IV non-surgically treated patients., Results: Absolute risk of metastases exceeded that of local recurrence in every stage and cell type, highlighting the systemic threat of lung cancer. In stage I, the probability of dying within the first year after diagnosis was 2.7%, but it was 48.3% within first year after recurrence; in stage IV, the probabilities were 57.3% and 80.6%, respectively. Over half the patients died within one year of first metastasis. Although in stages IA to IB about one-third of patients had a recurrence, stage IIA patients had a recurrence risk (61.2%) similar to stage IIB (57.9%) and IIIA (62.8%) patients. Risk of brain metastases in stage IA to IIIA surgically treated non-small cell lung cancer patients increased with increasing tumor grade. Absolute risk of recurrence was virtually identical in adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma patients., Conclusions: This population-based study provides clinically useful estimates of risks of lung cancer recurrence and mortality that are applicable to the general population. These data highlight the need for more effective adjuvant treatments overall and within specific subgroups. The estimated risks of various endpoints are useful for designing clinical trials, whose power depends on absolute numbers of events., (Published by Oxford University Press 2015.) more...

Background: Although modifiable risk factors have been included in previous models that estimate or project breast cancer risk, there remains a need to estimate the effects of changes in modifiable risk factors on the absolute risk of breast cancer., Methods: Using data from a case-control study of women in Italy (2569 case patients and 2588 control subjects studied from June 1, 1991, to April 1, 1994) and incidence and mortality data from the Florence Registries, we developed a model to predict the absolute risk of breast cancer that included five non-modifiable risk factors (reproductive characteristics, education, occupational activity, family history, and biopsy history) and three modifiable risk factors (alcohol consumption, leisure physical activity, and body mass index). The model was validated using independent data, and the percent risk reduction was calculated in high-risk subgroups identified by use of the Lorenz curve., Results: The model was reasonably well calibrated (ratio of expected to observed cancers = 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.96 to 1.26), but the discriminatory accuracy was modest. The absolute risk reduction from exposure modifications was nearly proportional to the risk before modifying the risk factors and increased with age and risk projection time span. Mean 20-year reductions in absolute risk among women aged 65 years were 1.6% (95% CI = 0.9% to 2.3%) in the entire population, 3.2% (95% CI = 1.8% to 4.8%) among women with a positive family history of breast cancer, and 4.1% (95% CI = 2.5% to 6.8%) among women who accounted for the highest 10% of the total population risk, as determined from the Lorenz curve., Conclusions: These data give perspective on the potential reductions in absolute breast cancer risk from preventative strategies based on lifestyle changes. Our methods are also useful for calculating sample sizes required for trials to test lifestyle interventions. more...