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Background & Aims: Chronic liver diseases (CLDs) are major health problems that require complex and costly treatments. Liver-specific clinical outcome indicators (COIs) able to assist both clinicians and administrators in improving the value of care are presently lacking. The Value-Based Medicine in Hepatology (VBMH) study aims to fill this gap, devising and testing a set of COIs for CLD, that could be easily collected during clinical practice. Here we report the COIs generated and recorded for patients with HBV or HCV infection at different stages of the disease., Methods/results: In the first phase of VBMH study, COIs were identified, based on current international guidelines and literature, using a modified Delphi method and a RAND 9-point appropriateness scale. In the second phase, COIs were tested in an observational, longitudinal, prospective, multicentre study based in Lombardy, Italy. Eighteen COIs were identified for HBV and HCV patients. Patients with CLD secondary to HBV (547) or HCV (1391) were enrolled over an 18-month period and followed for a median of 4 years. The estimation of the proposed COIs was feasible in the real-word clinical practice and COI values compared well with literature data. Further, the COIs were able to capture the impact of new effective treatments like direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in the clinical practice., Conclusions: The COIs efficiently measured clinical outcomes at different stages of CLDs. While specific clinical practice settings and related healthcare systems may modify their implementation, these indicators will represent an important component of the tools for a value-based approach in hepatology and will positively affect care delivery., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background & Aims: Advances in direct-acting antiviral treatment of HCV have reinvigorated public health initiatives aimed at identifying affected individuals. We evaluated the possible impact of only diagnosed and linked-to-care individuals on overall HCV burden estimates and identified a possible strategy to achieve the WHO targets by 2030., Methods: Using a modelling approach grounded in Italian real-life data of diagnosed and treated patients, different linkage-to-care scenarios were built to evaluate potential strategies in achieving the HCV elimination goals., Results: Under the 40% linked-to-care scenario, viraemic burden would decline (60%); however, eligible patients to treat will be depleted by 2025. Increased case finding through a targeted screening strategy in 1948-1978 birth cohorts could supplement the pool of diagnosed patients by finding 75% of F0-F3 cases. Under the 60% linked-to-care scenario, viraemic infections would decline by 70% by 2030 but the patients eligible for treatment will run out by 2028. If treatment is to be maintained, a screening strategy focusing on 1958-1978 birth cohorts could capture 55% of F0-F3 individuals. Under the 80% linked-to-care scenario, screening limited in 1968-1978 birth cohorts could sustain treatment at levels required to achieve the HCV elimination goals., Conclusion: In Italy, which is an HCV endemic country, the eligible pool of patients to treat will run out between 2025 and 2028. To maintain the treatment rate and achieve the HCV elimination goals, increased case finding in targeted, high prevalence groups is required., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Autoimmune hepatitis, primary biliary cholangitis, and primary sclerosing cholangitis represent the three major autoimmune liver diseases (AILDs). Their management is highly specialized, requires a multidisciplinary approach and often relies on expensive, orphan drugs. Unfortunately, their treatment is often unsatisfactory, and the care pathway heterogeneous across different centers. Disease-specific clinical outcome indicators (COIs) able to evaluate the whole cycle of care are needed to assist both clinicians and administrators in improving quality and value of care. Aim of our study was to generate a set of COIs for the three AILDs. We then prospectively validated these indicators based on a series of consecutive patients recruited at three tertiary clinical centers in Lombardy, Italy., Methods: In phase I using a Delphi method and a RAND 9-point appropriateness scale a set of COIs was generated. In phase II the indicators were applied in a real-life dataset., Results: Two-hundred fourteen patients were enrolled and followed-up for a median time of 54months and the above COIs were recorded using a web-based electronic medical record program. The COIs were easy to collect in the clinical practice environment and their values compared well with the available natural history studies., Conclusions: We have generated a comprehensive set of COIs which sequentially capture different clinical outcome of the three AILDs explored. These indicators represent a critical tool to implement a value-based approach to patients with these conditions, to monitor, compare and improve quality through benchmarking of clinical performance and to assess the significance of novel drugs and technologies. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Cholangiocytes in Health and Diseaseedited by Jesus Banales, Marco Marzioni, Nicholas LaRusso and Peter Jansen., (Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

New and more promising therapies for chronic hepatitis C (CHC) genotype 1 (G1) naive patients have recently been approved in the United States and Europe, and several more regimens are expected to become available within the next several years. While this scenario unfolds, it is necessary to develop a rational method to allocate current treatment in CHC G1 patients. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of boceprevir (BOC)- and telaprevir (TVR)-based triple therapy according to different patients' selection strategies. A semi-Markov model of CHC natural history and progression towards end-stage liver disease was built. We considered 3 selection strategies based on METAVIR fibrosis stage: (i) treat all patients with F1-F4 fibrosis, (ii) only F2-F4 and (iii) only F3-F4. For each strategy, TVR interleukin-28B-guided (IL28B-guided) and BOC rapid virologic response-guided (RVR-guided) therapies were applied. The model assessed the costs and outcomes, using a lifetime and 5-year time horizon, and adopting the Italian National Health System perspective. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for F1-F4 strategy relative to F3-F4 was €5132 per quality-adjusted life years gained, across TVR IL-28B-guided therapy, and €7042 in the BOC RVR-guided therapy. Conversely, in the 5-year scenario, the ICER for F1-F4 strategy relative to F3-F4 was €1 818 679 (TVR IL28B-guided) and €1 866 437 (BOC RVR-guided) per end-stage liver disease or death (ESLD-D) avoided. In view of anticipated improvement in the efficacy of future regimens, selective treatment of only patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis with TVR or BOC could represent the most cost-effective strategy to optimize resource utilization., (© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: To generate a robust predictive model of Early (3 months) Graft Loss after liver transplantation, we used a Bayesian approach to combine evidence from a prospective European cohort (Liver-Match) and the United Network for Organ Sharing registry., Methods: Liver-Match included 1480 consecutive primary liver transplants performed from 2007 to 2009 and the United Network for Organ Sharing a time-matched series of 9740 transplants. There were 173 and 706 Early Graft Loss, respectively. Multivariate analysis identified as significant predictors of Early Graft Loss: donor age, donation after cardiac death, cold ischaemia time, donor body mass index and height, recipient creatinine, bilirubin, disease aetiology, prior upper abdominal surgery and portal thrombosis., Results: A Bayesian Cox model was fitted to Liver-Match data using the United Network for Organ Sharing findings as prior information, allowing to generate an Early Graft Loss-Donor Risk Index and an Early Graft Loss-Recipient Risk Index. A Donor-Recipient Allocation Model, obtained by adding Early Graft Loss-Donor Risk Index to Early Graft Loss-Recipient Risk Index, was then validated in a distinct United Network for Organ Sharing (year 2010) cohort including 2964 transplants. Donor-Recipient Allocation Model updating using the independent Turin Transplant Centre dataset, allowed to predict Early Graft Loss with good accuracy (c-statistic: 0.76)., Conclusion: Donor-Recipient Allocation Model allows a reliable donor and recipient-based Early Graft Loss prediction. The Bayesian approach permits to adapt the original Donor-Recipient Allocation Model by incorporating evidence from other cohorts, resulting in significantly improved predictive capability., (Copyright © 2013 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background & Aims: The appropriate allocation of grafts from HBcAb positive donors in liver transplantation is crucial, yet a consensus is still lacking., Methods: We evaluated this issue within Liver Match, a prospective observational Italian study. Data from 1437 consecutive, first transplants performed in 2007-2009 using grafts from deceased heart beating donors were analyzed (median follow-up: 1040 days). Of these, 219 (15.2%) were HBcAb positive. Sixty-six HBcAb positive grafts were allocated to HBsAg positive and 153 to HBsAg negative recipients., Results: 329 graft losses occurred (22.9%): 66 (30.1%) among 219 recipients of HBcAb positive grafts, and 263 (21.6%) among 1218 recipients of HBcAb negative grafts. Graft survival was lower in recipients of HBcAb positive compared to HBcAb negative donors, with unadjusted 3-year graft survival of 0.69 (s.e. 0.032) and 0.77 (0.013), respectively (log-rank, p=0.0047). After stratifying for recipient HBsAg status, this difference was only observed among HBsAg negative recipients (log rank, p=0.0007), 3-year graft survival being excellent (0.88, s.e. 0.020) among HBsAg positive recipients, regardless of the HBcAb donor status (log rank, p=0.4478). Graft loss due to de novo HBV hepatitis occurred only in one patient. At Cox regression, hazard ratios for graft loss were: MELD (1.30 per 10 units, p=0.0002), donor HBcAb positivity (1.56, p=0.0015), recipient HBsAg positivity (0.43, p <0.0001), portal vein thrombosis (1.99, p=0.0156), and DRI (1.41 per unit, p=0.0325)., Conclusions: HBcAb positive donor grafts have better outcomes when transplanted into HBsAg positive than HBsAg negative recipients. These findings suggest that donor HBcAb positivity requires more stringent allocation strategies., (Copyright © 2012 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: The Liver Match is an observational cohort study that prospectively enrolled liver transplantations performed at 20 out of 21 Italian Transplant Centres between June 2007 and May 2009. Aim of the study is to investigate the impact of donor/recipient matching on outcomes. In this report we describe the study methodology and provide a cross-sectional description of donor and recipient characteristics and of graft allocation., Methods: Adult primary transplants performed with deceased heart-beating donors were included. Relevant information on donors and recipients, organ procurement and allocation were prospectively entered in an ad hoc database within the National Transplant Centre web-based Network. Data were blindly analysed by an independent Biostatistical Board., Results: The study enrolled 1530 donor/recipient matches. Median donor age was 56 years. Female donors (n = 681, median 58, range 12-92 years) were older than males (n = 849, median 53, range 2-97 years, p < 0.0001). Donors older than 60 years were 42.2%, including 4.2% octogenarians. Brain death was due to non-traumatic causes in 1126 (73.6%) cases. Half of the donor population was overweight, 10.1% was obese and 7.6% diabetic. Hepatitis B core antibody (HBcAb) was present in 245 (16.0%) donors. The median Donor Risk Index (DRI) was 1.57 (>1.7 in 35.8%). The median cold ischaemia time was 7.3h (≥ 10 in 10.6%). Median age of recipients was 54 years, and 77.7% were males. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was the most frequent indication overall (44.4%), being a coindication in roughly 1/3 of cases, followed by viral cirrhosis without HCC (28.2%) and alcoholic cirrhosis without HCC (10.2%). Hepatitis C virus infection (with or without HCC) was the most frequent etiologic factor (45.9% of the whole population and 71.4% of viral-related cirrhosis), yet hepatitis B virus infection accounted for 28.6% of viral-related cirrhosis, and HBcAb positivity was found in 49.7% of recipients. The median Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) at transplant was 12 in patients with HCC and 18 in those without. Multivariate analysis showed a slight but significant inverse association between DRI and MELD at transplant., Conclusions: The deceased donor population in Italy has a high-risk profile compared to other countries, mainly due to older donor age. Almost half of the grafts are transplanted in recipients with HCC. Higher risk donors tend to be preferentially allocated to recipients with HCC, who are usually less ill and older. No other relevant allocation strategy is currently adopted at national level., (Copyright © 2010 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background & Aims: The HLA complex on chromosome 6p21 is firmly established as a risk locus for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). We aimed to exploit genetic differences between Northern Europe and Italy in an attempt to define a causative locus in this genetic region., Methods: Seventy-eight North-Italian PSC patients and 79 controls were included. We performed sequencing-based genotyping of HLA-C, HLA-B, and HLA-DRB1. The major histocompatibility chain-related A (MICA) transmembrane microsatellite was analysed using PCR fragment length determination. The tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha)-308G-->A polymorphism was genotyped with TaqMan. Allele frequencies were compared with Chi-square tests. Uncorrected p-values <0.05 were considered statistically significant when replicating findings in previous studies. The p-values of novel associations were corrected for multiple comparisons (Bonferroni)., Results: The frequency of the strong inhibitory HLA-C2 killer-immunoglobulin receptor (KIR) ligand variant was significantly reduced in PSC vs. controls (0.39 vs. 0.58, p=0.0006). Consequently, HLA-C1 homozygosity was associated with an increased risk of PSC (OR 3.1; 95% CI 1.4-6.7, p=0.004). Importantly, there were no significant associations with the HLA-Bw4 KIR ligand variant, at the neighbouring MICA locus or with TNF-alpha-308G-->A. At HLA-DRB1, we confirmed positive and negative associations with DRB1*15 and DRB1*07, respectively, while there were no associations with the DRB1*03, *04 or *1301 alleles typically detected in PSC in Northern Europe., Conclusions: The strong inhibitory of the KIR ligand HLA-C2 protects against PSC development in all populations hitherto studied. Further studies on the role of natural killer cells and T-lymphocytes expressing KIRs in PSC pathogenesis are warranted., (Copyright (c) 2010 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background and Aim: To clarify the precise mode of inheritance of Gilbert syndrome, an unconjugated familial hyperbilirubinemia, where impaired bilirubin conjugation is caused by reduced UGT1A1 activity determined by a defective function of the A(TA)6TAA promoter region of the UGT1A1 gene., Subjects and Methods: Serum bilirubin levels were measured in a large, homogeneous resident population from North-Eastern Italy, consisting of 1.639 males (age 44.5+/-13.9, range 18-89 years), and 1.420 females (age 45.1+/-15.0, range 18-85). In 112 nuclear families from hyperbilirubinemic probands living in the same area a complex segregation analysis was then performed. In both samples we carefully excluded potentially confounding factors of bilirubin levels (alcohol abuse, excessive cigarette smoking, drug consumption, overt haemolysis and liver disease)., Results: Mean serum bilirubin concentrations are higher in males than in females, showing fluctuations through the different age periods in males. Complex segregation results demonstrate that unconjugated hyperbilirubinemia exhibits a precise mode of inheritance in which a major recessive gene with a frequency of 0.45 is responsible for higher serum bilirubin values., Conclusions: This major recessive gene accounts only for a part of the serum bilirubin concentration, thus implying additional, environmental factors for the clinical appearance of GS.

Liver transplantation is an efficient procedure as performed in Italy, yet major differences are present in terms of practice. In an effort to facilitate an homogeneous practice of liver transplantation in Italy, the Italian Association for the Study of Liver Disease has instituted a Commission aimed at providing recommendations on non-urgent liver transplantation in adults, based on current evidence. This nation-wide commission which included experienced hepatologists, surgeons and pathologists with major interest in liver transplantation has drafted a final document in October 2004, approved by the Italian Association for the Study of Liver Governing Board, whose key arguments and main conclusions are summarised in the present paper. The Commission has made specific recommendations on the following topics: the current needs of liver transplantation in Italy; the indications to liver transplantation and re-liver transplantation, with special reference to controversial issues and the minimal listing criteria; the use of marginal donors and the need to optimise donor/recipient matching; the use of living donor liver transplantation; the management of the waiting list and the introduction of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease to define priorities; the clinical management of liver transplantation recipients and disease recurrence; the implementation of audits and outcome monitoring; the training of transplant surgeons and hepatologists and the requirements for Centre accreditation; the pathology of liver transplantation.

Aims: In patients with with primary sclerosing cholangitis we investigated the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) genes and mutations of the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene., Methods: In 64 PSC patients and 183 normal controls of the same population (Northern Italy), allelic polymorphisms at the DNA level were investigated in MHC region genes: HLA-DRB1, HLA-DQB1 and HLA-B, tumour necrosis factor A (TNFA), and in CFTR gene, with polymerase chain reaction-based methodologies., Results: Frequencies of DRB1*01, DQA1*0101, DQB1*0102 (14 vs. 8%, p<0.05), DRB1*16, DQA1*0102, DQB1*0502 (8 vs. 3%, p<0.025) and DRB1*04, DQA1*03, DQB1*0301 (10 vs. 4%, p<0.005) haplotypes were more elevated in PSC patients. The frequency of patients positive for HLA DRB1*01, *1601 or *04 related haplotypes was significantly increased (32 vs. 14%, p<0.00025). DRB1*07, DQA1*0201, DQB1*02 haplotype frequency was significantly decreased (4 vs. 15%, p<0.001). After removing HLA-DRB1*01, *1601, *04 related haplotype sharing patients, HLA-DRB1*03, DQA1*0501, DQB1*02 haplotype frequency was significantly increased (32 vs. 14%, p<0.01). TNFA2 allele frequency was significantly increased in PSC patients (23 vs. 14%, p<0.025), as well as the TNFA2 homozygous genotype (9 vs. 0.5%, p=0.0013). No mutations were found on the CFTR gene and the allelic frequency of the 5T polymorphism in intron 8 was not increased., Conclusion: These data suggest that the role of genes in the HLA region is relevant, but not necessarily disease-specific and it might be different in populations with divergent ancestries.