Search

Accurate risk stratification in COVID-19 patients consists a major clinical need to guide therapeutic strategies. We sought to evaluate the prognostic role of estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV), a marker of arterial stiffness which reflects overall arterial integrity and aging, in risk stratification of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. This retrospective, longitudinal cohort study, analyzed a total population of 1671 subjects consisting of 737 hospitalized COVID-19 patients consecutively recruited from two tertiary centers (Newcastle cohort: n = 471 and Pisa cohort: n = 266) and a non-COVID control cohort (n = 934). Arterial stiffness was calculated using validated formulae for ePWV. ePWV progressively increased across the control group, COVID-19 survivors and deceased patients (adjusted mean increase per group 1.89 m/s, P < 0.001). Using a machine learning approach, ePWV provided incremental prognostic value and improved reclassification for mortality over the core model including age, sex and comorbidities [AUC (core model + ePWV vs. core model) = 0.864 vs. 0.755]. ePWV provided similar prognostic value when pulse pressure or hs-Troponin were added to the core model or over its components including age and mean blood pressure (p < 0.05 for all). The optimal prognostic ePWV value was 13.0 m/s. ePWV conferred additive discrimination (AUC: 0.817 versus 0.779, P < 0.001) and reclassification value (NRI = 0.381, P < 0.001) over the 4C Mortality score, a validated score for predicting mortality in COVID-19 and the Charlson comorbidity index. We suggest that calculation of ePWV, a readily applicable estimation of arterial stiffness, may serve as an additional clinical tool to refine risk stratification of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 beyond established risk factors and scores., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Objective: Data on the incidence of new onset atrial fibrillation and flutter (AF/f) in patients with acute pericarditis are limited. We sought to determine the incidence and prognostic significance of AF/f in this setting., Methods: Between January 2006 and June 2014, consecutive new cases of acute pericarditis were included in two urban referral centres for pericardial diseases. All new cases of AF/f defined as episodes lasting ≥30 s were recorded. Events considered during follow-up consisted of AF/f and pericarditis recurrence, cardiac tamponade, pericardial constriction and death., Results: 822 consecutive new cases of acute pericarditis (mean age 53±15 years, 444 men) were analysed. AF/f was detected in 35 patients (4.3%, mean age 66.5±11.3 years, 18 men). Patients with AF/f were significantly older (p=0.017) and presented more frequently with pericardial effusion (p<0.001). Arrhythmias developed within 24 h of pericarditis onset in 91.4% of cases, lasted >24 h in 25.7% and spontaneously converted in 74.3% of patients. Underlying structural heart disease was present in 17% of AF/f cases. In a 30-month follow-up, patients with history of AF/f at the initial episode had a higher rate of arrhythmia occurrence (34.3% vs 0.9%, p<0.001), mostly (75%) within 3 months. No other differences were detected in additional clinical events including haemorrhagic complications in patients receiving oral anticoagulation., Conclusions: The occurrence of AF/f in acute pericarditis identifies a predisposed population to AF/f with a high recurrence risk (about 35%): in these patients, pericarditis may act as an arrhythmic trigger and oral anticoagulation should be seriously considered according to guidelines., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.)