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During the 2012–13 rubella outbreak in Japan, local governments implemented subsidy programs for catch-up vaccination to mitigate the rubella outbreak and prevent congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). In most local governments, to prevent CRS, eligible persons of the subsidy program were women who were planning to have a child and men who were partners of pregnant women. On the other hand, in Kawasaki City, unimmunized men aged 23–39 years were additionally included in the eligible persons, because they were included in an unimmunized men group resulting from the historical transition of the national routine vaccination in Japan. The number of rubella cases in the city decreased earlier than that in the whole Japan. First, in order to estimate the effect of the catch-up vaccination campaign in Kawasaki City on the epidemic outcome, we performed numerical simulations with a Susceptible-Vaccinated-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SVEIR) model incorporating real data. The result indicated that the catch-up vaccination campaign showed a beneficial impact on the early decay of the rubella cases. Second, we numerically compared several different implementation strategies of catch-up vaccinations under a fixed amount of total vaccinations. As a result, we found that early and intensive vaccinations are vital for significant reduction in the number of rubella cases and CRS occurrences. Our study suggests that mathematical models with epidemiological and social data can contribute to identifying the most effective vaccination strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the increasing incidence of metabolic syndrome, the development of new therapeutic strategies is urgently required. One promising approach is to focus on the predisease state (so-called Mibyou in traditional Japanese medicine) before metabolic syndrome as a preemptive medical target. We recently succeeded in detecting a predisease state before metabolic syndrome using a mathematical theory called the dynamical network biomarker (DNB) theory. The detected predisease state was characterized by 147 DNB genes among a total of 24,217 genes in TSOD (Tsumura-Suzuki Obese Diabetes) mice, a well-accepted model of metabolic syndrome, at 5 weeks of age. The timing of the predisease state was much earlier than the onset of metabolic syndrome in TSOD mice reported to be at approximately 8–12 weeks of age. In the present study, we investigated whether the predisease state in TSOD mice can be inhibited by the oral administration of a Kampo formula, bofutsushosan (BTS), which is usually used to treat obese patients with metabolic syndrome in Japan, from 3 to 7 weeks of age. We found the comprehensive suppression of the early warning signals of the DNB genes by BTS at 5 weeks of age and later. Specifically, the standard deviations of 134 genes among the 147 DNB genes decreased at 5 weeks of age as compared to the nontreatment control group, and 80 of them showed more than 50% reduction. In addition, at 7 weeks of age, the body weight and blood glucose level were significantly lower in the BTS-treated group than in the nontreatment control group. The results of our study suggest a novel mechanism of BTS; it suppressed fluctuations of the DNB genes at the predisease state before metabolic syndrome and thus prevented the subsequent transition to metabolic syndrome. In conclusion, this study demonstrated the preventive and preemptive effects of a Kampo formula on Mibyou before metabolic syndrome for the first time based on scientific evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As part of measles elimination effort, evaluation of the vaccination program and real-time assessment of the epidemic dynamics constitute two important tasks to improve and strengthen the control. The present study aimed to develop an epidemiological modeling method which can be applied to estimating the vaccine efficacy at an individual level while conducting the timely investigation of the epidemic. The multivariate renewal process model was employed to describe the temporal evolution of infection by vaccination history, jointly estimating the time-dependent reproduction number and the vaccine efficacy. Analyzing the enhanced surveillance data of measles in Aichi prefecture, Japan from 2007-08, the vaccine efficacy was estimated at 96.7% (95% confidence interval: 95.8, 97.4). Using an age structured model, the vaccine efficacy among those aged from 5-19 years was shown to be smaller than that among those from 0-4 years. The age-dependent vaccine efficacy estimate informs the age-groups to be targeted for revaccination. Because the estimation method can rest on readily available epidemiological data, the proposed model has a potential to be integrated with routine surveillance.

The late Professor Gen Matsumoto not only accomplished pioneering work of neuroscience such as nerve excitation as a dissipative structure in far-from-equilibrium systems but also inspired many students and young researchers by his sincere and attractive personality.