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A large‐scale physics‐based simulation is conducted to investigate ground motion distribution in the Mw 7.0 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, Japan. The model simulates the earthquake scenario from fault rupture to wave propagation, and localized site response with consideration of the combined effect of soil nonlinearity and topographic amplification. The simulation domain is 51 km × 43 km × 25 km, and the obtained ground motion time histories are compared satisfactorily with recordings from KiK‐net and K‐NET. Ground motion distribution considering nonlinear soil response and topographic amplification is presented. A 3D equivalent linear model is developed to mimic the soil nonlinearity, and it is demonstrated that neglecting soil nonlinearity could over‐predict peak ground acceleration (PGA) and underestimate peak ground velocity (PGV) near the fault. The topographic amplification factors (TAFs) of PGA and PGV are found between 0.5 and 2.0, with a correlation coefficient of 0.7 between them. Predictive equations are proposed to correlate TAFs of PGA and PGV with topographic features, which are represented by relative heights obtained at different length scales. Finally, major earthquake damages are summarized with reference to the obtained ground motion intensity map. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a framework for regional scale coseismic landslide evaluation that combines physics-based wave propagation simulation at a regional scale, with flexible sliding analysis at a site scale. The physics-based simulation incorporates fault rupture process, complex topography and dynamic site response. The sliding displacements of flexible masses are calculated by integrating seismic parameter k obtained from the physics-based simulation over seismic resistance. The framework is applied to the case study of coseismic landslides during the 2016 M w 7.0 Kumamoto earthquake in Japan, which has well documented fault mechanism, geologic information and landslide inventory. The performance of the model prediction is evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. This study highlights the near-fault effect and soil nonlinear effect on landslide distribution, and it is demonstrated that the landslide prediction can be notably improved with the consideration of topographic amplification of ground motions. Empirical correlations between topographic amplification of key intensity measures and parameterized topographic features are developed. Overall, the simulation captures 58% of observed landslides in the inventory (using a displacement threshold of 15 cm), showing the proposed framework is a promising tool for regional coseismic landslide analysis. • A regional coseismic landslide analysis framework is developed. • Physics-based simulation is incorporated with flexible sliding mass analysis. • The framework is applied to case study of the 2016 M w 7.0 Kumamoto earthquake. • Near-fault effect, topographic effect and soil nonlinearity are highlighted. • The simulation captures 58% of observed landslides in the inventory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]