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In subduction zones, slip deficit monitoring along the plate interface is important for understanding the seismogenesis of megathrust earthquakes. In the last two decades, aseismic slip transients, such as slow slip events (SSEs), which are usually synchronized with tectonic tremors, have been detected in subduction zones worldwide. Frequent SSEs are particularly important for releasing slip deficits during the inter-seismic periods of megathrust earthquakes. In southwest Japan, deep short-term SSEs have been primarily monitored with strain and tilt records because the SSEs in this region are small. However, strain and tilt records are so sensitive that they record not only SSEs, but also rainfall and local groundwater movements, which temporally affect the quality of data making it difficult to apply an automated detection algorithm. Therefore, previously reported short-term SSE catalogs, based on strain and tilt records, were created by visual inspections, although they are not suitable for generating a long-term catalog. In this study, a quantitative detection algorithm was developed to detect short-term SSEs using strain and tilt records. The problem of temporally varying data quality was solved by introducing the prior probability of log-normal distributions in the fitting variance. This method was applied to an 8-year (2013–2020) dataset of strains and tilts from southwest Japan. A total of 96 events were detected, among which, 78 corresponded with SSEs previously reported by the Geological Survey of Japan (GSJ). Although the GSJ catalog contained more events with smaller magnitudes, such events were difficult to distinguish from noise using the developed method. Three of the remaining 18 events were considered SSEs that were not reported in the GSJ catalog. Others could be artifacts because there were no obvious signals in the global navigation satellite system records (with events of magnitude > 6.0). Previous studies have suggested the existence of aseismic transients deeper or shallower than regular short-term SSEs in southwest Japan. However, detection results from this study did not confirm such events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Revealing subsurface structures is a fundamental task in geophysical and geological studies. Logging data are usually acquired through drilling projects, which constrain the subsurface structure, and together with the description of drill core samples, are used to distinguish geological units. Clustering is useful for interpreting logging data and making log unit classification and is usually performed by manual inspection of the data. However, the validity of clustering results with such subjective criteria may be questionable. This study proposed the application of a statistical clustering method, the hidden Markov model, to conduct unsupervised clustering of logging data. As logging data are aligned along the drilled hole, they and the geological structure hidden behind such sequential datasets can be regarded as observables and hidden states in the hidden Markov model. When log unit classification is manually conducted, depth dependency of logging data is usually focused. Therefore, we included depth information as observables to explicitly represent depth dependency of logging data. The model was applied to the following geological settings: the accretionary prism at the Nankai Trough, the onshore fault zone at the Kii Peninsula (southwest Japan), and the forearc basin at the Japan Trench. The optimum number of clusters were searched using a quantitative index. The clustering results using the hidden Markov model were consistent with previously reported classifications or lithological descriptions; however, our method allowed a more detailed division of logging data, which is useful to interpret geological structures, such as a fault or a fault zone. Therefore, the use of the hidden Markov model enabled us to clarify assumptions quantitatively and conduct clustering consistently for the entire depth range, even for different geological sites. The proposed method is expected to have wider applicability and extensibility for other types of data, including geochemical and structural geological data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The critical taper model best describes the first-order mechanics of subduction zone wedges. The wedge geometry, which is conventionally defined by two parameters, slope angle and basal dip angle, accounts for the strength of megathrust. By applying this theoretical model, fault frictional properties and earthquake occurrences can be compared among subduction zones, and within a single subduction zone, and the spatial distribution or temporal change of fault strength can be investigated. Slope angle can be accurately estimated from bathymetry data, but basal dip angle must be inferred from subsurface structure, which requires highly accurate depth-migrated seismic reflection profiles. Thus, application of the critical taper model is often limited by an insufficient number of highly accurate profiles, and the spatial distribution of frictional coefficients must be inferred from relatively few data. To improve this situation, we revisited the theoretical formula of the critical taper model. We found that the effect of basal dip angle on the critical taper model is small, and slope angle can be a proxy for the effective friction when the pore fluid pressure ratio is high, internal friction is small, or both. These conditions are met in many subduction zones. The validity of the approximation can be checked with a parameter newly introduced in this study. Therefore, this finding allows use of variations in slope angle, which could be obtained accurately from only the bathymetry as an approximation for relative variations in the effective coefficient of basal friction, if the targeted subduction meets the validity. We applied this approximation to the Japan Trench and estimated the variations in the friction coefficient distribution on the shallow plate boundary fault from 71 data points. We found that the area where the friction coefficient was smaller than the mean corresponded to a segment, where a large coseismic shallow rupture occurred during the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw 9.0). Thus, by approximating tapered wedge geometry with a simple topographic parameter that can be obtained from existing global bathymetry, we can quickly estimate the distribution of frictional properties on a plate boundary fault along a trench and related seismic activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fluid migration in subduction zones is a key controlling factor of slow and megathrust earthquakes at plate boundaries. During the migration, seismic velocity and heterogeneous structures in its pathways may be temporarily perturbed, preferably triggering slow earthquakes. Here, we show that transient changes of seismic heterogeneity occurred 0–9 months before shallow slow earthquakes in the Nankai subduction zone, Japan, using very long‐term (6–10 years) records of ambient seafloor noise. The heterogeneity changes preceding to shallow slow earthquakes were observed near the margin of the source region, while concurrent changes primarily occurred in the source region. We propose that the heterogeneity changes are attributed to dynamic fluid migration, and the difference in timings reflects the pore pressure level in the corresponding source region. When fluids are supplied to a source region under relatively low pressure, fluids are leaked out from its downdip or updip side, and slow earthquakes occur not immediately but with a time delay of at most 9 months. In the high pore pressure case, slow earthquakes occur immediately with fluid migration from the source region. This study suggests that the heterogeneous seismic structure is possibly changed by fluid migration before slow earthquakes in the Nankai subduction zone. Plain Language Summary: While the linkage between fluid and slow earthquakes occurring at the plate boundary of subduction zones has been revealed, such a relationship for very shallow parts close to trench axes remains elusive. In this study, we investigated the temporal variations of seismic velocity and heterogeneous structure beneath the seafloor in the Nankai subduction zone, Japan, using the seismographs observed by a permanent cabled network starting in 2010. The intensities of seismic heterogeneous structures change 0–9 months prior to the shallow slow earthquakes, implying that the heterogeneous structure is altered by fluid migration that affects the slow earthquake generation. In the case of the fluid migration preceding to slow earthquakes, fluids are supplied to the source region with relatively low pore pressure levels, and the pore pressure level there increases until the timing of the slow earthquake generation. In contrast, the case of concurrent fluid migration corresponds to the fluids supplied to the source region with a relatively high pore pressure level, and slow earthquakes occur at the immediate timing of the fluid supply. These results suggest that monitoring heterogeneous seismic structures potentially contributes to further understanding of the spatio‐temporal relationship between fluid migration and shallow slow earthquakes. Key Points: Transient changes of seismic heterogeneities occurred 0–9 months before slow earthquakes in the shallow Nankai subduction zoneWe consider that the heterogeneity changes are caused by fluid migrationThe difference in timings between fluid migration and slow earthquakes reflects the pore pressure levels at the source regions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lateral spatial variations of weak portions at the plate boundary in subduction zones have been estimated primarily by the distribution of slow earthquakes mainly occurring around seismogenic zones. However, the detailed depth profile of weak faults remains elusive. Here, we deployed six ocean bottom seismometers in the Nankai subduction zone, Japan, to observe reflections originated from drilling vessel Chikyu ship noise (hydroacoustic P wave) that was persistently radiated from a fixed position at the sea surface, and retrieved P-to-s (Ps) reflections from multiple dipping faults near the plate boundary. The Ps amplitudes were stacked and compared according to the degrees of tidal stresses, and high amplitudes were observed at high tide (compression). A migration technique shows that the locations where velocity contrasts fluctuate were estimated at both the megasplay fault and another fault between the megasplay fault and the top of the oceanic crust. This indicates that the physical properties of these faults are altered by tidal stress. The physical-property changes are attributed to fluid connections and isolations within the faults due to tidal stress fluctuations, inducing the variation of seismic anisotropy. Such a variation was confirmed by a three-dimensional numerical simulation for wave propagation with anisotropic medium. Our observation suggests that multiple weak faults are present around the plate boundary, and the obtained changes of fault physical properties may have implications for in-depth understanding of tidal triggering of earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Slow earthquake size distributions have been found to follow either a power law or an exponential law, depending on the data set. We investigated the size distribution of shallow tectonic tremor events along the Nankai trough, southwestern Japan, observed in 2009, 2015, 2016, and 2018 and estimated the seismic energy radiated during the events as a measure of event size. The obtained size distributions mostly followed a power law with a b value of about 1, but an exponential law also fits well the data of the largest events; this result indicates that the size distribution follows the Gutenberg‐Richter law with an exponential taper. If only the largest events were observed, an exponential size distribution would be obtained. This exponential taper could be attributed to a source fault limitation. Because the maximum event size differed among activity periods, the source fault size varied among them, although the source areas largely overlap. Plain Language Summary: The size distribution of ordinary earthquakes mostly follows a power law, in which number of earthquakes reduces to 1/10 when the earthquake magnitude increases in 1 (the Gutenberg‐Richter law), while that of volcanic tremor follows an exponential law, in which event number exponentially decreases as the event size increases. On the other hand, the size distribution of tectonic tremor has not been clarified yet. We investigated the size distribution of shallow tectonic tremor events along the Nankai trough, southwestern Japan. The obtained size distributions mostly followed a power law with a b value of about 1, similar to ordinary earthquakes, but an exponential law also fits well the data of the largest events. This result indicates that the size distribution follows the Gutenberg‐Richter law with an exponential taper. The tapered power law distribution of tremor events implies that the source fault of small events, which follow a power law size distribution, is self‐similar, whereas that of larger events, which follow an exponential law distribution, is limited by the size of the entire fault. Key Points: We investigated the size distribution of shallow tremor events observed along the Nankai troughThe observed size distribution is well explained by a power law with b value about 1 with an exponential taper for the largest eventsThis result implies that tectonic tremor follows a tapered Gutenberg‐Richter distribution [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shallow slow earthquakes have been documented along shallow plate interfaces near trenches. Recent geophysical observation networks located offshore of Japan enable us to analyze shallow tremors in the Nankai Trough and the Japan Trench. Onshore seismic stations are also important for detecting shallow very low frequency earthquakes (VLFEs) and for evaluating their seismicity prior to the deployment of offshore observation networks. This study analyzes data from ocean bottom seismometers to estimate the seismic energy radiation of such tremors, from which we observe along-strike heterogeneity. Tremors with higher seismic energy rates tend to have longer recurrence intervals, which has also been observed for deep tremors. This study also estimates seismic moment releases of shallow VLFEs at the Japan Trench observed by onshore seismic stations using Green's function in a local three-dimensional seismic velocity model. The scaled energy, which is the ratio of the seismic energy (rate) to the seismic moment (rate), is ~10−9. Shallow slow earthquakes located off the Kii Peninsula and Cape Muroto in the Nankai Trough have higher values (10−9–10−8), while shallow slow earthquakes located off the Kii channel in the Nankai Trough and in the Japan Trench have lower values (10−10–10−9), which are similar to the values estimated for deep slow earthquakes. By comparing the cumulative seismic energy of the shallow tremors with the cumulative seismic moment of shallow VLFEs, we evaluate the monitoring of shallow tremors and shallow VLFEs in the Japan Trench, suggesting that monitoring shallow VLFEs based on data from onshore seismic stations could miss many (~90% at most) of the seismic moment releases by small magnitude but frequent events. • Shallow tremor seismic energy rates exhibit significant along-strike variations. • Tremors with higher energy rates tend to have longer recurrence intervals. • Shore-based monitoring could underestimate shallow slow earthquake activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic that started at the end of 2019 forced populations around the world to reduce social and economic activities; it is believed that this can prevent the spread of the disease. In this paper, we report an analysis of the seismic noise during such an induced social activity reduction in the Tokyo metropolitan area, Japan. Using seismic data obtained from 18 stations in the Metropolitan Seismic Observation Network (MeSO-net), a two-step seismic noise reduction was observed during the timeline of COVID-19 in Tokyo. The first noise reduction occurred at the beginning of March 2020 in the frequency band of 20–40 Hz. This corresponded with the request by the Prime Minister of Japan for a nationwide shutdown of schools. Although social activity was not reduced significantly at this juncture, local reduction of seismic wave excitation in the high-frequency band, 20–40 Hz, was recorded at some MeSO-net stations located in school properties. The second reduction of seismic noise occurred at the end of March to the beginning of April 2020 in a wider frequency band including lower frequency bands of 1–20 Hz. This timing corresponds to when the Governors of the Tokyo metropolitan area requested citizens to stay home and when the state of emergency was declared for the Tokyo metropolitan area by the government, respectively. Since then, the estimated population at train stations abruptly dropped, which suggests that social activity was severely reduced. Such large-scale changes in social activity affect the seismic noise level in low-frequency bands. The seismic noise level started to increase from the middle of May correlating with increase in population at the train stations. This suggests that social activity restarted even before the state of emergency was lifted at the end of May. The two-step seismic noise reduction observed in this study has not been reported in other cities around the world. Unexpected reduction of social activity due to COVID-19 provided a rare opportunity to investigate the characteristics of seismic noise caused by human activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]