1. A five-compartment model of age-specific transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2.
- Author
-
Zhao, Ze-Yu, Zhu, Yuan-Zhao, Xu, Jing-Wen, Hu, Shi-Xiong, Hu, Qing-Qing, Lei, Zhao, Rui, Jia, Liu, Xing-Chun, Wang, Yao, Yang, Meng, Luo, Li, Yu, Shan-Shan, Li, Jia, Liu, Ruo-Yun, Xie, Fang, Su, Ying-Ying, Chiang, Yi-Chen, Zhao, Ben-Hua, Cui, Jing-An, and Yin, Ling
- Subjects
SARS-CoV-2 ,COVID-19 ,MIDDLE-aged persons ,OLDER people ,AGE groups - Abstract
Background: The novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, also called 2019-nCoV) causes different morbidity risks to individuals in different age groups. This study attempts to quantify the age-specific transmissibility using a mathematical model. Methods: An epidemiological model with five compartments (susceptible–exposed–symptomatic–asymptomatic–recovered/removed [SEIAR]) was developed based on observed transmission features. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases were divided into four age groups: group 1, those ≤ 14 years old; group 2, those 15 to 44 years old; group 3, those 45 to 64 years old; and group 4, those ≥ 65 years old. The model was initially based on cases (including imported cases and secondary cases) collected in Hunan Province from January 5 to February 19, 2020. Another dataset, from Jilin Province, was used to test the model. Results: The age-specific SEIAR model fitted the data well in each age group (P < 0.001). In Hunan Province, the highest transmissibility was from age group 4 to 3 (median: β
43 = 7.71 × 10− 9 ; SAR43 = 3.86 × 10− 8 ), followed by group 3 to 4 (median: β34 = 3.07 × 10− 9 ; SAR34 = 1.53 × 10− 8 ), group 2 to 2 (median: β22 = 1.24 × 10− 9 ; SAR22 = 6.21 × 10− 9 ), and group 3 to 1 (median: β31 = 4.10 × 10− 10 ; SAR31 = 2.08 × 10− 9 ). The lowest transmissibility was from age group 3 to 3 (median: β33 = 1.64 × 10− 19 ; SAR33 = 8.19 × 10− 19 ), followed by group 4 to 4 (median: β44 = 3.66 × 10− 17 ; SAR44 = 1.83 × 10− 16 ), group 3 to 2 (median: β32 = 1.21 × 10− 16 ; SAR32 = 6.06 × 10− 16 ), and group 1 to 4 (median: β14 = 7.20 × 10− 14 ; SAR14 = 3.60 × 10− 13 ). In Jilin Province, the highest transmissibility occurred from age group 4 to 4 (median: β43 = 4.27 × 10− 8 ; SAR43 = 2.13 × 10− 7 ), followed by group 3 to 4 (median: β34 = 1.81 × 10− 8 ; SAR34 = 9.03 × 10− 8 ). Conclusions: SARS-CoV-2 exhibits high transmissibility between middle-aged (45 to 64 years old) and elderly (≥ 65 years old) people. Children (≤ 14 years old) have very low susceptibility to COVID-19. This study will improve our understanding of the transmission feature of SARS-CoV-2 in different age groups and suggest the most prevention measures should be applied to middle-aged and elderly people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF