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The present framework explores the climatic variability and impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on precipitation over 11 meteorological stations of the Jhelum River catchment (JRC) over a 43-year period (1971–2013). Nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK) and innovative trend analysis methods were applied to determine variations in climatic parameter (precipitation and temperature time-series) and illuminate how variations in the ENSO index with extreme precipitation changes over time. The MK test generally assessed increasing and decreasing trends in the area, whereas the innovative trend analysis represented the trend magnitude and direction. Comparison of the 20-year return period during El Niño and La Niña years, as well as seasonal variation in air temperature at central and upper parts of the JRC (northeast of the Karakoram mountains), exerts a significant impact on maximum air temperature from −2.09 to −2.53°C/year. A significant trend in seasonal and annual precipitation of 3.62 mm/year was also detected at the upper part of the JRC. In addition, the quantitative variation in precipitation due to global air temperature was determined and revealed the risk of extreme, high intensity precipitation increases across high altitudes, which decrease at middle altitudes of the JRC under the warm scenario. However, all seasons showed the heightened effect of ENSO over the area, varying from 1% to 36%, for extreme precipitation events. The findings are providing the uncertainties associated with the influence of ENSO on future development activities to cope with wet and dry seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]