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In the Greater Serengeti-Mara ecosystem, with the Serengeti National Park (SNP) at its core, people and wildlife are strongly dependent on water supply that has a strong seasonal and inter-annual variability. The Mara River, the only perennial river in SNP, and a number of small streams originate from outside SNP before flowing through it. In those watersheds increasing grazing pressure from livestock, deforestation, irrigation and other land uses affect river flows in SNP that subsequently have impacts on wildlife. We quantified the changes since the 1970s of river discharge dynamics. We found that the baseflow recession period for the Mbalageti River has remained unchanged at 70 days, which is a natural system inside SNP. By contrast it has decreased from 100 days in the 1970s to 16 days at present for the Mara River, coinciding with increased commercial-scale irrigation in Kenya that extract Mara River water before it reaches SNP. This irrigation will result in zero flow in the river in SNP if the proposed dams in the river in Kenya are built. We observed high flash floods and prolonged periods of zero flows in streams draining livestock grazed watersheds, where severe major erosion prevails that results in gully formation. This eroded sediment is expected to silt and dry out the scattered dry season water holes in SNP, which are an important source of drinkable water for wildlife during the dry season. It appears likely that the future water supply of SNP is at risk, and this has major consequences for its people and wildlife. Ecohydrology-based solutions at the catchment scale are urgently needed to reduce catchment degradation while ensuring sustainable water provision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Protected areas provide major benefits for humans in the form of ecosystem services, but landscape degradation by human activity at their edges may compromise their ecological functioning. Using multiple lines of evidence from 40 years of research in the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem, we find that such edge degradation has effectively "squeezed" wildlife into the core protected area and has altered the ecosystem's dynamics even within this 40,000-square-kilometer ecosystem. This spatial cascade reduced resilience in the core and was mediated by the movement of grazers, which reduced grass fuel and fires, weakened the capacity of soils to sequester nutrients and carbon, and decreased the responsiveness of primary production to rainfall. Similar effects in other protected ecosystems worldwide may require rethinking of natural resource management outside protected areas., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

1. Theory predicts that small grazers are regulated by the digestive quality of grass, while large grazers extract sufficient nutrients from low-quality forage and are regulated by its abundance instead. In addition, predation potentially affects populations of small grazers more than large grazers, because predators have difficulty capturing and handling large prey. 2. We analyse the spatial distribution of five grazer species of different body size in relation to gradients of food availability and predation risk. Specifically, we investigate how the quality of grass, the abundance of grass biomass and the associated risks of predation affect the habitat use of small, intermediate and large savanna grazers at a landscape level. 3. Resource selection functions of five mammalian grazer species surveyed over a 21-year period in Serengeti are calculated using logistic regressions. Variables included in the analyses are grass nitrogen, rainfall, topographic wetness index, woody cover, drainage lines, landscape curvature, water and human habitation. Structural equation modelling (SEM) is used to aggregate predictor variables into 'composites' representing food quality, food abundance and predation risk. Subsequently, SEM is used to investigate species' habitat use, defined as their recurrence in 5 × 5 km cells across repeated censuses. 4. The distribution of small grazers is constrained by predation and food quality, whereas the distribution of large grazers is relatively unconstrained. The distribution of the largest grazer (African buffalo) is primarily associated with forage abundance but not predation risk, while the distributions of the smallest grazers (Thomson's gazelle and Grant's gazelle) are associated with high grass quality and negatively with the risk of predation. The distributions of intermediate sized grazers (Coke's hartebeest and topi) suggest they optimize access to grass biomass of sufficient quality in relatively predator-safe areas. 5. The results illustrate how top-down (vegetation-mediated predation risk) and bottom-up factors (biomass and nutrient content of vegetation) predictably contribute to the division of niche space for herbivores that vary in body size. Furthermore, diverse grazing assemblages are composed of herbivores of many body sizes (rather than similar body sizes), because these herbivores best exploit the resources of different habitat types., (© 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.)