1. Spatial and Temporal Patterns in Observed Extreme Precipitation Change Over Northern Part of the Korean Peninsula.
- Author
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Om, Kum‐Chol, Ren, Guoyu, Jong, Sang‐Il, Ham, Yong‐Sik, Hong, Chang‐Won, Kang‐Chol, O., and Tysa, Suonam Kealdrup
- Subjects
METROPOLITAN areas ,ATMOSPHERIC circulation ,CITIES & towns ,PENINSULAS ,RAINFALL - Abstract
The present study aims to detect the variation of precipitation extreme events in the northern part of the Korean Peninsula during 1961–2020, as well as to investigate its possible causes, based on daily precipitation data from 37 representative stations. Nonparametric tests such as Mann‐Kendall and Kendall‐tau were used to detect statistical characteristics of changes in precipitation indices and climate variables. Findings are as follows: (a) the annual total precipitation manifested a clear shifting point in 1968, with a decreasing rate of about −37.7 mm/decade, conversely, daily precipitation intensity had a clear upward trend, and extreme precipitation events above 100 mm/day became more frequent. (b) There occurred significant upward trends of 8.9 mm/decade for intense rainfall (>95th percentile) and 6.3 mm/decade for extreme intense rainfall (>99th percentile). (c) The continuous wet (dry) days showed a decreasing (increasing) trend of about −0.2 days/decade (1.0 days/decade). The decrease rate of 5‐day max precipitation is five times as large as 1‐day max precipitation. (d) For June‐September, the strengthened West Pacific Subtropical High intensity and the variation of its ridge‐axis position, the southerly shift of the upper subtropical Jetstream and the weakening of lower moisture supplement may have suppressed the northerly move of the summer rain band and delayed the development of rainy season over the study area. (e) In view of the urbanization effect, the possible causes of the precipitation externalization were investigated, and it was found that the upward trends in daily precipitation intensity and 95th percentile intense precipitation in big cities are generally higher than rural regions. Plain Language Summary: The investigation of variation in precipitation extreme events and its possible causes was conducted for the northern Korean Peninsula during 1961–2020. Annual total precipitation had experienced a significant decreasing trend, but extreme precipitation intensity had a clear upward trend, and extreme rainfall events became more frequent, with upward trends of 8.9 mm/decade for rainfall (>95th percentile) and 6.3 mm/decade for rainfall (>99th percentile) and a decreasing (increasing) trend of about −0.2 days/decade (1.0 days/decade) in continuous wet (dry) days. These changes were directly driven by changes in the atmospheric circulation factors for June–September, such as West Pacific Subtropical High, upper subtropical Jetstream, and lower moisture supplement. In some urbanized regions, an asymmetrical shift in the temporal variation of precipitation is seeable. In particular, the decadal trends in daily precipitation intensity and 95th percentile precipitation in the big city are generally higher (about 50% and 15%) than those in rural regions. Key Points: Annual precipitation manifested a decreased trend, but extreme precipitation events became more frequentDecreasing rainy season rainfall is related to variation in West Pacific Subtropical High, low layer moisture flux, and upper subtropical JetstreamAn asymmetrical shift in precipitation pattern over the cities due to the urbanization effect is more detectable than those related to the atmospheric circulation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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