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Lhasa, the capital of Tibet, is located on the Tibetan Plateau. Accelerated economic development and flourishing tourism resulting from the opening of the Qinghai–Tibet Railway (QTR) have increased solid waste generation and contamination in recent years. Using data from Lhasa Statistical Yearbooks and previous studies, this study estimates the future population of permanent residents and tourists using the least squares method to extrapolate the population from 2015–2025, and evaluates the effects of the QTR on municipal solid waste (MSW) generation in Lhasa and estimates future MSW generation. There were approximately 1.35 million tourists in 2008 when the QTR had been operating for 2 years and MSW generation was approximately 470 tons per day. The amount of MSW generated increased dramatically with time after opening the QTR. This study estimates that MSW generation will reach 962 tons per day in 2025. Due to the existence of the QTR, increasing numbers of people are traveling to Lhasa, and tourism has driven the development of the local economy. During the studies, the proportion of MSW produced by tourists increased from 2.99% to 20.06%, and it is estimated that it will increase to 33.49% in 2025. If the current trend continues, Lhasa will face significant challenges from garbage disposal. This study analyzes the current situation of urban garbage treatment in Lhasa, and it suggests several options for improvement to MSW generation, transportation equipment, disposal, and resource recycling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]