1. التنبؤ بأعداد المتعافين من فيروس كورونا في دولة ليبيا باستخدام منهجية بوكس وجينكنز
- Author
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احمد علي عزي ز, أبوبكر مفتاح الغافو د, and أبوبكر محمد الحوي ل
- Subjects
- *
STATISTICAL models , *TIME series analysis , *BOX-Jenkins forecasting , *CORONAVIRUSES , *FORECASTING - Abstract
The time series is considered as one of the most important tools to investigate the microorganisms infection and interpretation their behavior through a specific period of time. This research aims to determine the most efficient statistical model by applying the Box and Jenkins methodology to predict the number of people recovering from the Corona virus in the State of Libya, for developing plans, measures and necessary precautions. The proposed model was compared with several different models using the indicators of the average absolute error and the average relative absolute error. It was found, that the optimal model is a model (0,1, 1), due to passing the stage of examination and diagnosis, and accordingly, this model could be used to predict the independent values for the period (2/11/2022) until (4/11/2002(. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023