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Background: Despite accumulating evidence of an association between stressful life events and psychosis relapse, the extent to which this is a causal relationship remains unclear. We aimed to examine the association between exposure to, and number of, stressful life events after initial psychosis onset and psychosis relapse., Methods: In this 2-year prospective observational study, we recruited individuals with first-episode psychosis, aged 18-65 years, who presented to psychiatric services in south London, UK. Participants were assessed via interview, with additional data obtained from electronic clinical records. Stressful life events were recorded at psychosis onset and during the 2-year follow-up using a brief questionnaire that assesses 12 major life events. Psychosis relapse was defined as inpatient admission because of symptom exacerbation within 2 years from psychosis onset. We examined the time to first psychosis relapse and the number and length of relapses using survival and binomial regression analyses. We used fixed-effects regression and cross-lagged path analysis to examine the directionality of effects and control for unmeasured confounders., Findings: Between April 12, 2002, and July 26, 2013, 256 individuals with first-episode psychosis (100 [39%] female and 156 [61%] male; 16 [6%] Asian, 140 [55%] Black African or Caribbean, 86 [34%] White, and 14 [6%] mixed ethnicity) were recruited, with a mean age of onset of psychosis of 28·06 years (SD 8·03; range 17·21-56·03). 93 (36%) participants experienced at least one relapse during the 2-year follow-up. 253 individuals had all relevant data and were included in analyses. For people exposed to stressful life events after the onset of psychosis, the adjusted hazard (hazard ratio [HR] 2·60, 95% CI 1·63-4·16, p<0·0001), incidence (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1·87, 1·24-2·80, p=0·0026), and length (IRR 2·53, 1·40-4·67, p=0·0011) of relapse were greater than for those who were unexposed. These relationships were dose dependent (HR 1·36; 1·09-1·69, p=0·0054; incidence IRR 1·26, 1·02-1·53, p=0·023; length IRR 1·52, 1·12-2·12, p=0·0028). Adjusted fixed-effects models showed a higher (odds ratio [OR] 3·82, 1·82-8·00, p=0·0004) and dose-dependent (OR 1·62, 1·18-2·21, p=0·0028) risk of relapse when stressful life events preceded relapse compared with the period when they did not. Cross-lagged path analysis confirmed an effect of stressful life events on the number of subsequent relapses (β=0·66, p=0·0055) that was dose dependent (β=0·29, p=0·029), but it did not show an effect of relapses on subsequent risk or number of stressful life events., Interpretation: These results provide converging evidence of a causal effect of stressful life events on the risk of relapse in psychosis. They suggest that there is a need to develop interventions at the individual and health-service level that could mitigate the harmful effects of stressful life events., Funding: National Institute for Health Research, UK., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests SB has received support from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinician Scientist Award (NIHR CS-11-001) and the Medical Research Council (MR/J012149/1). TS has received support from the Wellcome Trust Postdoctoral Fellowship (grant numbers 218641/Z/19/Z). RM has received support from the Biomedical Research Centre, South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust, UK. AEC has received support from the NARSAD Young Investigator Grant awarded by the Brain & Behavior Research Foundation (28336) and funded by the Evelyn Toll Family Foundation. MC has been a consultant or advisor to GW Pharma, GW Pharma Italy, and F Hoffmann-La Roche, outside of this work. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

The GAP multidisciplinary study carried out in South London, recruited 410 first episode of psychosis patients and 370 controls; the aim was to elucidate the multiple genetic and environmental factors influencing the onset and outcome of psychosis. The study demonstrated the risk increasing effect of adversity in childhood (especially parental loss, abuse, and bullying) on onset of psychosis especially positive symptoms. Adverse life events more proximal to onset, being from an ethnic minority, and cannabis use also played important roles; indeed, one quarter of new cases of psychosis could be attributed to use of high potency cannabis. The "jumping to conclusions" bias appeared to mediate the effect of lower IQ on vulnerability to psychosis. We confirmed that environmental factors operate on the background of polygenic risk, and that genetic and environment act together to push individuals over the threshold for manifesting the clinical disorder. The study demonstrated how biological pathways involved in the stress response (HPA axis and immune system) provide important mechanisms linking social risk factors to the development of psychotic symptoms. Further evidence implicating an immune/inflammatory component to psychosis came from our finding of complement dysregulation in FEP. Patients also showed an upregulation of the antimicrobial alpha-defensins, as well as differences in expression patterns of genes involved in NF-κB signaling and Cytokine Production. Being of African origin not only increased risk of onset but also of a more difficult course of illness. The malign effect of childhood adversity predicted a poorer outcome as did continued use of high potency cannabis., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest Robin Murray has received honoraria for lectures from Janssen, Lundbeck, Sunovian, Otsuka, Angelini., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)