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The 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill exposed common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Barataria Bay, Louisiana to heavy oiling that caused increased mortality and chronic disease and impaired reproduction in surviving dolphins. We conducted photographic surveys and veterinary assessments in the decade following the spill. We assigned a prognostic score (good, fair, guarded, poor, or grave) for each dolphin to provide a single integrated indicator of overall health, and we examined temporal trends in prognostic scores. We used expert elicitation to quantify the implications of trends for the proportion of the dolphins that would recover within their lifetime. We integrated expert elicitation, along with other new information, in a population dynamics model to predict the effects of observed health trends on demography. We compared the resulting population trajectory with that predicted under baseline (no spill) conditions. Disease conditions persisted and have recently worsened in dolphins that were presumably exposed to DWH oil: 78% of those assessed in 2018 had a guarded, poor, or grave prognosis. Dolphins born after the spill were in better health. We estimated that the population declined by 45% (95% CI 14-74) relative to baseline and will take 35 years (95% CI 18-67) to recover to 95% of baseline numbers. The sum of annual differences between baseline and injured population sizes (i.e., the lost cetacean years) was 30,993 (95% CI 6607-94,148). The population is currently at a minimum point in its recovery trajectory and is vulnerable to emerging threats, including planned ecosystem restoration efforts that are likely to be detrimental to the dolphins' survival. Our modeling framework demonstrates an approach for integrating different sources and types of data, highlights the utility of expert elicitation for indeterminable input parameters, and emphasizes the importance of considering and monitoring long-term health of long-lived species subject to environmental disasters. Article impact statement: Oil spills can have long-term consequences for the health of long-lived species; thus, effective restoration and monitoring are needed., (© 2021 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.)

Health assessments were conducted on bottlenose dolphins in Barataria Bay, Louisiana, USA, during 2011 to 2018, to assess potential health effects following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, compared to the unoiled Sarasota Bay, Florida, USA, reference dolphin population. We previously reported significant increases in T-lymphocyte proliferation, as well as lower T helper 1 (Th1) cytokines, higher Th2 cytokine IL-4, and lower T regulatory (Treg) cytokine IL-10 in Barataria Bay in 2011 compared to Sarasota Bay, consistent with Deepwater Horizon oil exposure. Although values between 2013 and 2016 were more similar to those observed in Sarasota Bay, T-cell proliferation was again elevated and cytokine balance tilted toward Th2 in Barataria Bay during 2017-2018. In 2018, Barataria Bay dolphins had significantly more circulating Treg cells than Sarasota Bay dolphins. Mice experimentally exposed to oil also had significantly increased T-lymphocyte proliferation and circulating Treg cell number, including effects in their unexposed progeny. In vitro stimulation resulted in greater Th2 responsiveness in Barataria Bay compared to Sarasota Bay dolphins, and in vitro oil exposure of Sarasota Bay dolphin cells also resulted in enhanced Th2 responsiveness. Evidence points to Treg cells as a potential target for the immunomodulatory effects of oil exposure. The immunological trends observed in Barataria Bay appeared exaggerated in dolphins born after the spill, suggesting the possibility of continued oil exposure or multigenerational health consequences of exposure to oil, as observed in mice. Environ Toxicol Chem 2021;40:1308-1321. © 2021 SETAC., (© 2021 SETAC.)