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The main objective of this study is to estimate the safety factors and the probability of planar failure in the slopes of the Comuna Universitaria of the city of Manizales (Colombia). Geotechnical data gathered over a period of 14 years is processed statistically. The infinite slope equation is applied through Monte Carlo simulations to assess typical input scenarios including cohesion, friction angle, groundwater level, and inclination of layers with the presence of ash and anthropogenic fills. The simulation involved 5000 iterations for each variable, resulting in a tool for detecting conditions causing instability in the slopes of the Comuna Universitaria. It is concluded that for acceptable safety factors calculated deterministically, it is possible to obtain high risk levels with relation to failure probability function, making probabilistic analyses conservative and useful for early warning detection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a methodology applied to the monitoring of the slope stability in the rural area in Manizales, by means of the Boussinesq storage slope (HSB) partial differential equation and theoretical information of hydrogeological parameters, such as porosity, hydraulic conductivity, thickness and other data obtained by indirect measurements with geographic information systems such as the angle of the slope, the width of the slope, the profile of the slope and the precipitation information of the nearest weather station. In this work, the HSB equation is solved with the finite differences method implemented in Python, for four days of the EMAS meteorological station report. The result obtained was of the saturation curve and of the safety factor for each day. This methodology can contribute to the monitoring of hillsides located in rural areas as long as the values of the hydrogeological parameters are adjusted and a way of support of the efforts to implement an early warning system against hazard landslides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]