Search

Abstract: We propose in this paper an original technique to predict global radiation using a hybrid ARMA/ANN model and data issued from a numerical weather prediction model (NWP). We particularly look at the multi-layer perceptron (MLP). After optimizing our architecture with NWP and endogenous data previously made stationary and using an innovative pre-input layer selection method, we combined it to an ARMA model from a rule based on the analysis of hourly data series. This model has been used to forecast the hourly global radiation for five places in Mediterranean area. Our technique outperforms classical models for all the places. The nRMSE for our hybrid model MLP/ARMA is 14.9% compared to 26.2% for the naïve persistence predictor. Note that in the standalone ANN case the nRMSE is 18.4%. Finally, in order to discuss the reliability of the forecaster outputs, a complementary study concerning the confidence interval of each prediction is proposed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Considering the grid manager′s point of view, needs in terms of prediction of intermittent energy like the photovoltaic resource can be distinguished according to the considered horizon: following days (d+1, d+2 and d+3), next day by hourly step (h+24), next hour (h+1) and next few minutes (m+5 e.g.). Through this work, we have identified methodologies using time series models for the prediction horizon of global radiation and photovoltaic power. What we present here is a comparison of different predictors developed and tested to propose a hierarchy. For horizons d+1 and h+1, without advanced ad hoc time series pre-processing (stationarity) we find it is not easy to differentiate between autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and multilayer perceptron (MLP). However we observed that using exogenous variables improves significantly the results for MLP. We have shown that the MLP were more adapted for horizons h+24 and m+5. In summary, our results are complementary and improve the existing prediction techniques with innovative tools: stationarity, numerical weather prediction combination, MLP and ARMA hybridization, multivariate analysis, time index, etc. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Highlights: [•] Interest of thermal breezes for natural cross ventilation. [•] Proposition of climate indicators to assess natural ventilation potential. [•] Methodology applied with meteorological data from Corsica (France). [•] Airflow rate of a seaside building studied by tracer gas measurements. [•] Interest of controlling system studied with an empirical model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]