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The assassination of Julius Caesar in 44 BCE triggered a power struggle that ultimately ended the Roman Republic and, eventually, the Ptolemaic Kingdom, leading to the rise of the Roman Empire. Climate proxies and written documents indicate that this struggle occurred during a period of unusually inclement weather, famine, and disease in the Mediterranean region; historians have previously speculated that a large volcanic eruption of unknown origin was the most likely cause. Here we show using well-dated volcanic fallout records in six Arctic ice cores that one of the largest volcanic eruptions of the past 2,500 y occurred in early 43 BCE, with distinct geochemistry of tephra deposited during the event identifying the Okmok volcano in Alaska as the source. Climate proxy records show that 43 and 42 BCE were among the coldest years of recent millennia in the Northern Hemisphere at the start of one of the coldest decades. Earth system modeling suggests that radiative forcing from this massive, high-latitude eruption led to pronounced changes in hydroclimate, including seasonal temperatures in specific Mediterranean regions as much as 7 °C below normal during the 2 y period following the eruption and unusually wet conditions. While it is difficult to establish direct causal linkages to thinly documented historical events, the wet and very cold conditions from this massive eruption on the opposite side of Earth probably resulted in crop failures, famine, and disease, exacerbating social unrest and contributing to political realignments throughout the Mediterranean region at this critical juncture of Western civilization., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.

Charred olive wood is abundant in the archaeological record, especially around the Mediterranean. As the outermost ring closest to the bark is assumed to represent the latest time that the tree was alive, the radiocarbon date obtained from the outermost rings of an olive branch buried during the Santorini volcanic eruption is regarded as crucial evidence for the date of this cataclysmic event. The date of this eruption has far reaching consequences in the archaeology of the Aegean, Egypt and the Levant, and the understanding of their interconnections. We analyzed the radiocarbon concentrations in cross-sections from a modern olive tree trunk as well as from a living branch, and obtained near-annual resolution dates using the radiocarbon "bomb peak". In both cases we show that radiocarbon dates of the last formed wood along the circumference are not chronologically homogenous, and can differ by up to a few decades. Thus the outermost wood layer does not necessarily represent the date of the last year of growth. These findings challenge the interpretation of the results obtained from dating the olive branch from the Santorini volcanic eruption, as it could predate the eruption by a few decades. In addition, our results are also significant for any future studies based on archaeologically preserved olive wood.