Search

Your search keyword '"Anthony, Peter"' showing total 2 results
Start Over Author "Anthony, Peter" Region mexico
2 results on '"Anthony, Peter"'

1. Bonds, Stocks or Dollars? Do Capital Markets influence Election Results in Brazil and Mexico?

Author

Renno, Lucio R. and Spanakos, Anthony Peter

Subjects
*PRESIDENTIAL elections, *MARKETS, *CAPITAL market, *VOTING
Abstract

How does vote intention in presidential elections vary according to the economic conditions of a country, especially indicators of the financial market? Does the state of the economy, both its fundamentals as well as capital market, affect variation in candidates' percentage of vote intention in national polls? This paper tests how economic indicators influence vote intention in presidential elections in two emerging markets: Brazil and Mexico. The presidential elections of 1994, 1998, 2002, and 2006 in Brazil and 2000 and 2006 in Mexico are analyzed using all poll returns for each electoral period and corresponding economic data. The paper finds that no theory is capable of explaining results throughout the dataset but partisan explanations and Stokes' (2001) categories of alternatives to retrospective voting help elucidate vote intention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2009

2. Speak Clearly and Carry a Big Stock of Dollar Reserves Sovereign Risk, Ideology, and Presidential Elections in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela.

Author

Spanakos, Anthony Peter and Renno, Lucio R.

Subjects
*SOVEREIGNTY, *PRESIDENTIAL elections -- Social aspects, *QUANTITATIVE research, *CREDIT risk
Abstract

Partisan theories of political economy expect that bondholders will panic with the election of a left-wing presidential candidate. The latter seems to be what happened in Brazil in the 2002 presidential elections. However, quantitative analysis of perceptions of sovereign credit risk in Argentine, Brazilian, Mexican, and Venezuelan presidential elections from 1994 until 2007 shows no real evidence of a link between partisanship and perceptions of risk, even if the left-right divide is further broken down into left, center-left, centerright, right. Instead, international and domestic economic fundamentals have a stronger influence on risk evaluations. Qualitative analysis of the individual presidential elections shows the importance of policy uncertainty in explaining why certain electoral periods seemed more critical than others and how bondholders select between multiple equilibria. This research helps shift political analysis away from partisanship and more in the direction of policies and articulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2009
Full Text
View/download PDF

Catalog

Books, media, physical & digital resources
See catalog results