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Abstract Archaeological findings, numerical human dispersal models and genome analyses suggest several time windows in the past 200 kyr (thousands of years ago) when anatomically modern humans (AMH) dispersed out of Africa into the Levant and/or Arabia. From close to the key hominin site of Omo-Kibish, we provide near continuous proxy evidence for environmental changes in lake sediment cores from the Chew Bahir basin, south Ethiopia. The data show highly variable hydroclimate conditions from 116 to 66 kyr BP with rapid shifts from very wet to extreme aridity. The wet phases coincide with the timing of the North African Humid Periods during MIS5, as defined by Nile discharge records from the eastern Mediterranean. The subsequent record at Chew Bahir suggests stable regional hydrological setting between 58 and 32 kyr (MIS4 and 3), which facilitated the development of more habitable ecosystems, albeit in generally dry climatic conditions. This shift, from more to less variable hydroclimate, may help account for the timing of later dispersal events of AMH out of Africa. Highlights • Multiproxy record from S Ethiopia extends knowledge about environment and climate of past 116,000 yrs during human expansion. • Hydroclimate during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 was much more variable (frequency and amplitude) than during MIS 3 and 4. • Earth system models and model simulations of intermediate complexity emulate corresponding amplitude shifts in hydroclimate. • Environment was arid during MIS 3 and 4, but permanent lake water bodies existed as inferred from our biological proxies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The numerous dispersal events that have occurred during the prehistory of hominin lineages are the subject of longstanding and increasingly active debate in evolutionary anthropology. As well as research into the dating and geographic extent of such dispersals, there is an increasing focus on the factors that may have been responsible for dispersal. The growing body of detailed regional palaeoclimatic data is invaluable in demonstrating the often close relationship between changes in prehistoric environments and the movements of hominin populations. The scenarios constructed from such data are often overly simplistic, however, concentrating on the dynamics of cyclical contraction and expansion during severe and ameliorated conditions respectively. This contribution proposes a two-stage hypothesis of hominin dispersal in which populations (1) accumulate high levels of climatic tolerance during highly variable climatic phases, and (2) express such heightened tolerance via dispersal in subsequent low-variability phases. Likely dispersal phases are thus proposed to occur during stable climatic phases that immediately follow phases of high climatic variability. Employing high resolution palaeoclimatic data from Lake Tana, Ethiopia, the hypothesis is examined in relation to the early dispersal of Homo sapiens out of East Africa and into the Levant. A dispersal phase is identified in the Lake Tana record between c. 112,550 and c. 96,975 years ago, a date bracket that accords well with the dating evidence for H. sapiens occupation at the sites of Qafzeh and Skhul. Results are discussed in relation to the complex pattern of H. sapiens dispersal out of East Africa, with particular attention paid to the implications of recent genetic chronologies for the origin of non-African modern humans., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)