Search

This article examines the science–policy interface in volcanic risk assessment. It analyses empirical data from research on Montserrat, where new volcanic risk assessment methodologies were pioneered. We discuss the ways in which these methods contributed towards the ordering of scientific advice in its geographical context, and we provide examples of the complex and overlapping topologies that are assembled in a volcanic eruption. In this case, the science–policy interface can be conceptualised as diffusive: both science and policy contain multiple overlapping networks of actors, objects and ideas that interact with one another through flows of responsibilities, attribution, identity and interpretation. Volcanic risk management involves negotiation of conceptual, relational and physical boundaries, and as a result requires the use of qualitative and quantitative methods across human and physical geography. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] We discuss the interface between science and policy on Montserrat. [•] A large quantity of empirical data is presented. [•] We show the complexity of relationships between scientists, policymakers and the public. [•] We present a conceptual model for these relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents the foundation and work of the Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO), on the island of Montserrat in the Eastern Caribbean. It describes the co-production of the MVO as the result of a crisis-driven dialogue between scientists and officials. This involved contested understandings of the role of volcano observatories, and the balancing of limited resources within and beyond the observatory. Challenges also arose early on in the MVO’s history within the social context of the science itself as a result of different institutional and cultural framings. Montserrat’s government desperately needed scientific advice, but the high level of uncertainty involved in volcano forecasting combined with conflicts in the different scientific communities involved appeared to threaten the island’s future. In the following years, the institutionalising of volcanological science on Montserrat sought to overcome those early challenges and produce a dialogue that benefited both science and Montserrat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper constitutes a philosophical and social scientific study of expert elicitation in the assessment and management of volcanic risk on Montserrat during the 1995–present volcanic activity. It outlines the broader context of subjective probabilistic methods and then uses a mixed-method approach to analyse the use of these methods in volcanic crises. Data from a global survey of volcanologists regarding the use of statistical methods in hazard assessment are presented. Detailed qualitative data from Montserrat are then discussed, particularly concerning the expert elicitation procedure that was pioneered during the eruptions. These data are analysed and conclusions about the use of these methods in volcanology are drawn. The paper finds that while many volcanologists are open to the use of these methods, there are still some concerns, which are similar to the concerns encountered in the literature on probabilistic and determinist approaches to seismic hazard analysis. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper documents the evolution of hazard maps on the island of Montserrat, where volcanic activity has continued episodically since 1995. The paper argues that public participation can constitute political empathy, particularly where livelihoods are at stake, and can bring some order to the contested boundary between scientific risk assessment and its uptake by policymakers. This highlights that both bottom-up and top-down approaches to risk assessment are important, but also that the detailed structures within government and within science can be critical in ensuring the safety of populations, and that understanding the intricacies of local realisations of the science–policy interface is crucial to managing future hazard events. Systems that are responsive to public opinion and are transparent are more likely to win public trust. This is an important area for geographical studies combining human and physical methods, not solely in the development of maps but in the framing of their production and use. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This article discusses a selection of the literary output provoked and inspired by the eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano on Montserrat — notably poetry and prose written by Montserratians affected by the disaster. It argues that literature can be a source of local knowledge, and a window into a culture that is seeking to deal with a tragedy. It can also be used to assess outreach efforts and to investigate the impact of volcanic events – and of volcanological information – on local populations. The texts describe the process by which Montserratians moved from bewilderment and denial to renewal and re-identification, and even pride in the volcanic activity and their own ability to live with it — and to help prepare other Caribbean islands for future volcanic events. Literature looks both backwards and forwards, communicating the acts of experiencing and changing. On Montserrat, that applies both to colonialism and the role of the UK in Montserrat''s political, economic and social life, and also to the importance of learning volcanology, and welcoming volcanologists, as a means of survival. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: To improve interpretation of volcanic SO2 flux data, it is necessary to quantify and understand reactions involving SO2 in volcanic plumes. SO2 is lost in volcanic plumes through a number of mechanisms. Here we report SO2 measurements made with miniature ultraviolet spectrometers at Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat; a low altitude volcano (~1000 m above sea level) whose plume entrains humid marine air in the planetary boundary layer. Traverses very near (<400 m) beneath the ash-free plume were made at various distances from the source (from ~2 km to ~16 km), thereby spanning plume ages of about 6 to 35 min with minimal attenuation. We find average SO2 loss rates of ~10−4 s−1 (e-folding time of ~2.78 h), slightly lower than estimated previously for Soufrière Hills. These are in the fast end of the range of loss rates measured at other volcanoes (10−3–10−7 s−1, e-folding times of 0.28–2778 h), indicating that Montserrat plumes have short SO2 lifetimes. This work is more detailed and precise than previous work and is likely to represent the general case at Montserrat. SO2 flux measurements made >2 km downwind from Soufrière Hills volcano significantly underestimate at-source SO2 emission rates, on the order of 70–146%, when not accounting for the decay rate. Similar SO2 loss is likely to occur in plumes from other tropical low altitude volcanoes under conditions of high relative humidity (~20% of active volcanoes worldwide). These results suggest that the global volcanic SO2 emission rate may be underestimated as the estimates are based on measurements taken downwind of volcanoes, by which time significant loss of SO2 may have taken place. The loss rates calculated here could be used, in conjunction with downwind SO2 fluxes, to estimate at-source SO2 emission rates from volcanoes with similar environmental conditions to those at Soufrière Hills volcano. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]