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The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented changes in behaviour. To estimate if these persisted, a final round of the CoMix social contact survey was conducted in four countries at a time when all societal restrictions had been lifted for several months. We conducted a survey on a nationally representative sample in the UK, Netherlands (NL), Belgium (BE), and Switzerland (CH). Participants were asked about their contacts and behaviours on the previous day. We calculated contact matrices and compared the contact levels to a pre-pandemic baseline to estimate R 0 . Data collection occurred from 17 November to 7 December 2022. 7477 participants were recruited. Some were asked to undertake the survey on behalf of their children. Only 14.4 % of all participants reported wearing a facemask on the previous day. Self-reported vaccination rates in adults were similar for each country at around 86 %. Trimmed mean recorded contacts were highest in NL with 9.9 (95 % confidence interval [CI] 9.0-10.8) contacts per person per day and lowest in CH at 6.0 (95 % CI 5.4-6.6). Contacts at work were lowest in the UK (1.4 contacts per person per day) and highest in NL at 2.8 contacts per person per day. Other contacts were also lower in the UK at 1.6 per person per day (95 % CI 1.4-1.9) and highest in NL at 3.4 recorded per person per day (95 % CI 43.0-4.0). The next-generation approach suggests that R 0 for a close-contact disease would be roughly half pre-pandemic levels in the UK, 80 % in NL and intermediate in the other two countries. The pandemic appears to have resulted in lasting changes in contact patterns expected to have an impact on the epidemiology of many different pathogens. Further post-pandemic surveys are necessary to confirm this finding., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest None to declare., (Crown Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Collaborative comparisons and combinations of epidemic models are used as policy-relevant evidence during epidemic outbreaks. In the process of collecting multiple model projections, such collaborations may gain or lose relevant information. Typically, modellers contribute a probabilistic summary at each time-step. We compared this to directly collecting simulated trajectories. We aimed to explore information on key epidemic quantities; ensemble uncertainty; and performance against data, investigating potential to continuously gain information from a single cross-sectional collection of model results., Methods: We compared projections from the European COVID-19 Scenario Modelling Hub. Five teams modelled incidence in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Spain. We compared July 2022 projections by incidence, peaks, and cumulative totals. We created a probabilistic ensemble drawn from all trajectories, and compared to ensembles from a median across each model's quantiles, or a linear opinion pool. We measured the predictive accuracy of individual trajectories against observations, using this in a weighted ensemble. We repeated this sequentially against increasing weeks of observed data. We evaluated these ensembles to reflect performance with varying observed data., Results: By collecting modelled trajectories, we showed policy-relevant epidemic characteristics. Trajectories contained a right-skewed distribution well represented by an ensemble of trajectories or a linear opinion pool, but not models' quantile intervals. Ensembles weighted by performance typically retained the range of plausible incidence over time, and in some cases narrowed this by excluding some epidemic shapes., Conclusions: We observed several information gains from collecting modelled trajectories rather than quantile distributions, including potential for continuously updated information from a single model collection. The value of information gains and losses may vary with each collaborative effort's aims, depending on the needs of projection users. Understanding the differing information potential of methods to collect model projections can support the accuracy, sustainability, and communication of collaborative infectious disease modelling efforts., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Exposure to cadmium has been established to be carcinogenic for humans by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, but this is mainly based on studies with occupational exposures. The substantial 100 year long emission of cadmium by three zinc smelters in the Kempen area across the Dutch-Belgian border might have affected the incidence of cancer in this region. Following a study of increased risks of lung cancer due to cadmium emission (hazard ratio was 4.2 for high vs. low cadmium exposure areas in that study), we used data from the three regional population-based cancer registries, covering an area with 2.9 million inhabitants. Analyses of observed incidence were carried out for all cancers and cancer of the lung, kidney, bladder, prostate, testis, and breast separately. At the municipality level standardized incidence ratios were calculated and smoothed using a Poisson-gamma or a conditional autoregressive model. To detect clusters and to calculate an observed/expected ratio (O/E ratio) for each cluster a spatial scan statistic was applied. Significantly increased cancer incidence rates were found at a multimunicipality level for female lung cancer (O/E ratio=1.2), male and female bladder cancer (O/E ratio male=1.8, O/E ratio female=1.7), and prostate cancer (O/E ratio=1.3), none of these clusters being located specifically around the area of the zinc smelters. Therefore, the long term emission of cadmium by the zinc smelters in the Kempen area did not seem to lead to an increase in the incidence of all cancers, and lung, kidney, bladder, prostate, testicular, or breast cancer.