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Copyright of Journal of Entrepreneurship, Management & Innovation is the property of Wyzsza Szkola Biznesu-National Louis University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

FourSight theory contends that individuals show preferences for the mental operations rooted in the creative process. The four fundamental preferences measured by FourSight are Clarifiers, Ideators, Developers, and Implementers. The present study examined the extent to which certain occupations reflect a proclivity for these four creative‐process preferences. Guided by Holland's theory of vocational choice, hypothesized relationships were formulated for the link between FourSight theory and 17 occupations. For example, it was predicted that those who work in finance would show a significant bias toward the Clarifier preference. Of the 17 hypothesized relationships between FourSight and occupation, statistical analysis of the FourSight preferences for 20,784 individuals showed support for 12 predictions and partial support for two of the hypothesized relationships. These findings clearly demonstrate that particular occupations engage specific creative‐process preferences. Future investigations might wish to examine the degree to which the interaction between work and creative‐thinking preferences predicts creative performance, satisfaction, stress, and turnover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines policy capacity for dealing with the effects of climate change. The case under study is the Delta Program in the Netherlands; a large-scale policy program to prepare the country for current and anticipated effects of climate change that runs until 2050. Using a qualitative case study approach, we examine how the actors involved design analytical capacity, operational capacity and political capacity to deal with the uncertainty and complexity that are inherent in this policy field. The context of climate change necessitates policy capacity that anticipates effects that are in themselves uncertain and ambiguous, span over decades of time, and involve many stakeholders. Our analysis shows how policy capacity was designed to allow for present-day interventions, while also enabling adaptation to new and emerging developments overtime. We conclude our article with theoretical and practical lessons about policy capacity for dealing with long-term uncertainty and complexity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial planning defines objectives for spatial ordering of a region, together with instruments required to realize them. However, since the future is uncertain, many factors involved in spatial planning are unknown in advance. Scenario-based forecasting is a common way to deal with this fundamental uncertainty. This prospective approach offers guidance to decision makers regarding problems that are likely to appear in the future, and possible ways to manage them in advance. The performance of the forecasting can be assessed in retrospect once the future arrives. However, a method for assessing past management of uncertainty is lacking. This is important because learning from past performance under uncertainty can provide useful insights for the future. These insights can help to design future scenario-based forecasts that are more accurate, and more robust to uncertainty. This paper develops a methodology to combine retrospective analyses focused on past performance with prospective scenario-based forecasting. We use info-gap decision theory to model and manage uncertainty in scenario-based forecasting assessing efforts to contain residential sprawl in the Netherlands. The suggested approach informs prospective scenario-based forecasting, learning from previous experiences regarding their performance and their management of uncertainty and robustness. • Scenario-based forecasting planning is usually prospective. • Learning from past performance under uncertainty provide useful insights for the future. • We model uncertainty in residential sprawl in the Netherlands using info-gap theory. • We combine retrospective with prospective scenario-based assessment of uncertainty. • The approach informs prospective scenario-based forecasting learning from the past. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Internationally, national risk assessment (NRA) is rapidly gaining government sympathy as a science-based approach toward prioritizing the management of national hazards and threats, with the Netherlands and the United Kingdom in leading positions since 2007. NRAs are proliferating in Europe; they are also conducted in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United States, while regional RAs now exist for over 100 Dutch or British provinces or counties. Focused on the Dutch NRA (DNRA) and supported by specific examples, summaries and evaluations are given of its (1) scenario development, (2) impact assessment, (3) likelihood estimation, (4) risk diagram, and (5) capability analysis. Despite the DNRA's thorough elaboration, apparent weaknesses are lack of stakeholder involvement, possibility of false-positive risk scenarios, rigid multicriteria impact evaluation, hybrid methods for likelihood estimation, half-hearted use of a 'probability × effect' definition of risk, forced comparison of divergent risk scenarios, and unclear decision rules for risk acceptance and safety enhancement. Such weaknesses are not unique for the DNRA. In line with a somewhat reserved encouragement by the OECD (Studies in Risk Management. Innovation in Country Risk Management. Paris: OECD, 2009), the scientific solidity of NRA results so far is questioned, and several improvements are suggested. One critical point is that expert-driven NRAs may preempt political judgments and decisions by national security authorities. External review and validation of major NRA components is recommended for strengthening overall results as a reliable basis for national and/or regional safety policies. Meanwhile, a broader, more transactional concept of risk may lead to better national and regional risk assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of International Journal of Urban & Regional Research is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The increasing complexity of spatial planning issues and pressure from citizens to take part in deciding on spatial plans result in a need for improved methods to aid communication between governmental actors and citizens. These developments put high demands on planning support systems (PSS), instruments that can aid planners in performing their planning tasks. By using the accessibility of the Internet, e-participation seems an attractive shoot of PSS. This integration could facilitate citizen involvement in planning. Although many advantages are attributed to participatory PSS, its use in the planning practice remains marginal until now. According to this paper, this is partly caused by the lack of empirical studies that demonstrate potential benefits and obstacles when applying participatory PSS. To help alleviate this problem, this paper synthesizes three case studies of Dutch municipalities that each implemented some type of e-participation to achieve particular goals. It demonstrates that although e-participation has potential as a PSS, a limited impact on decision making and a feedback provision currently constitute obstacles for effective participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article assesses the value of Dutch museums using information about destination choice as well as about the number of trips undertaken by an actor. Destination choice is analysed by means of a mixed logit model, and a count data model is used to explain trip generation. We use a utility-consistent framework in which the discrete choice model for destination choice is linked to an indirect utility function. The results are used to compute the compensating variation of particular museums and of the total group of museums in the sample. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper describes the decision-theoretic approach that is used for bridge management in the Netherlands to obtain optimal investment and maintenance decisions. First, a societal perspective of bridge management and safety is sketched. Next, the important issues that govern the decision-making are described: technical requirements with an emphasis on structural safety, optimising maintenance to achieve lowest life-cycle costs, and the physical and statistical models of structural behaviour and deterioration processes. Finally, the results are evaluated in a societal perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years interactive decision making has become quite popular in The Netherlands, especially at the level of local government. It involves new forms of participation of citizens, consumers of public services and interest groups in the process of policy formation. Workshops, panels, internet discussions and a lot of other techniques are used to arrive at innovative and supported solutions for existing problems. The ambitions are high: these new forms of participation should result in better government both in the sense of providing better policies, but also in bridging the democratic gap between local government and citizens. problems. Recent experiences suggest that one of the major problems is the challenge interactive decision making constitutes for the existing practice of representative politics. On the basis of two cases - the decision-making process concerning the expansion of the Rotterdam Harbour and the discussion about a new administrative structure for the Rotterdam region - this article illustrates that one of the barriers that stands in the way of the success of such processes is the ambiguous attitude of elected politicians. Although politicians often initiate interactive decision-making processes, they do not actively support these processes when they are in progress. The outcomes of interactive decision-making progress are often not used in the formal political procedures that follow. Because elected politicians fear that these new forms of participation threaten their political primacy, they find it hard to play a constructive role in these processes. In this paper we suggest that if politicians are serious about interactive decision making, they should reflect on their own role in it. Building upon empirical insights of the cases and on a discussion of two possible approaches to democracy, we suggest alternative roles for politicians. The prevailing substantive definition of primacy of politics should be redefined in order to allow politicians to fulfil the role of catalyst and facilitator of the public debate. In this way the eroded role of politicians in societal decision making may gain a new meaning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To investigate whether a value of information analysis, commonly applied in health care evaluations, is feasible and meaningful in the field of crime prevention., Methods: Interventions aimed at reducing juvenile delinquency are increasingly being evaluated according to their cost-effectiveness. Results of cost-effectiveness models are subject to uncertainty in their cost and effect estimates. Further research can reduce that parameter uncertainty. The value of such further research can be estimated using a value of information analysis, as illustrated in the current study. We built upon an earlier published cost-effectiveness model that demonstrated the comparison of two interventions aimed at reducing juvenile delinquency. Outcomes were presented as costs per criminal activity free year., Results: At a societal willingness-to-pay of €71,700 per criminal activity free year, further research to eliminate parameter uncertainty was valued at €176 million. Therefore, in this illustrative analysis, the value of information analysis determined that society should be willing to spend a maximum of €176 million in reducing decision uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness of the two interventions. Moreover, the results suggest that reducing uncertainty in some specific model parameters might be more valuable than in others., Conclusions: Using a value of information framework to assess the value of conducting further research in the field of crime prevention proved to be feasible. The results were meaningful and can be interpreted according to health care evaluation studies. This analysis can be helpful in justifying additional research funds to further inform the reimbursement decision in regard to interventions for juvenile delinquents.

Background: Non-inferiority trials are performed when the main therapeutic effect of the new therapy is expected to be not unacceptably worse than that of the standard therapy, and the new therapy is expected to have advantages over the standard therapy in costs or other (health) consequences. These advantages however are not included in the classic frequentist approach of sample size calculation for non-inferiority trials. In contrast, the decision theory approach of sample size calculation does include these factors. The objective of this study is to compare the conceptual and practical aspects of the frequentist approach and decision theory approach of sample size calculation for non-inferiority trials, thereby demonstrating that the decision theory approach is more appropriate for sample size calculation of non-inferiority trials., Methods: The frequentist approach and decision theory approach of sample size calculation for non-inferiority trials are compared and applied to a case of a non-inferiority trial on individually tailored duration of elastic compression stocking therapy compared to two years elastic compression stocking therapy for the prevention of post thrombotic syndrome after deep vein thrombosis., Results: The two approaches differ substantially in conceptual background, analytical approach, and input requirements. The sample size calculated according to the frequentist approach yielded 788 patients, using a power of 80% and a one-sided significance level of 5%. The decision theory approach indicated that the optimal sample size was 500 patients, with a net value of €92 million., Conclusions: This study demonstrates and explains the differences between the classic frequentist approach and the decision theory approach of sample size calculation for non-inferiority trials. We argue that the decision theory approach of sample size estimation is most suitable for sample size calculation of non-inferiority trials.

Background: Access with evidence development has been established for expensive intramural drugs in The Netherlands. The procedure involves a 4-year period of conditional reimbursement. During this period, additional evidence has to be gathered usually through a patient registry. Given the costs and time involved in gathering the data, it is important to carefully evaluate the registry., Objectives: This study aimed to develop a model for the regular evaluation of patient registries during an access with evidence development process and find the optimal length of the registry period., Methods: We used data from a recent registry in The Netherlands on oxaliplatin as a treatment option for stage III colon cancer. We added simulated follow-up data to the empirical data available and applied value of information analysis to balance the gains of extending the period and amount of data gathering against the costs of registering patients., Results: We show that given the assumptions on cohort size, follow-up time, and purpose of the registry, the current (partly simulated) registry was not very efficient. Notably, the observation period could have been stopped to make a definite reimbursement decision after a maximum of 2 years rather than the fixed 4-year period., Conclusions: Patient registries may be an efficient way to gather data on new medical treatments, but they need to be carefully designed and evaluated, in particular regarding their follow-up time. For each purpose, data gathering can be tailored to make sure decisions are taken at the moment that sufficient data are available., (Copyright © 2015 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Medical-technical possibilities are often experienced as being strongly compelling. This imperative character of medical technology not only applies to the medical profession, but also to patients who frequently find it very difficult to refuse medical examinations or treatments. This article discusses the technological imperative with regard to patients. It attempts to discover relationships with decision theory, particularly concerning "anticipated decision regret." The fact that prevention of regret plays an important role in the use of medical technology is illustrated through a number of examples: liver transplantation, prenatal diagnosis, screening, and in vitro fertilization.