1. A prognostic model predicted deterioration in health-related quality of life in older patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy.
- Author
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González-González AI, Meid AD, Dinh TS, Blom JW, van den Akker M, Elders PJM, Thiem U, De Gaudry DK, Swart KMA, Rudolf H, Bosch-Lenders D, Trampisch HJ, Meerpohl JJ, Gerlach FM, Flaig B, Kom G, Snell KIE, Perera R, Haefeli WE, Glasziou PP, and Muth C
- Subjects
- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Female, Germany, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Netherlands, Aging pathology, Clinical Deterioration, Multimorbidity, Polypharmacy, Prognosis, Quality of Life
- Abstract
Objectives: To develop and validate a prognostic model to predict deterioration in health-related quality of life (dHRQoL) in older general practice patients with at least one chronic condition and one chronic prescription., Study Design and Setting: We used individual participant data from five cluster-randomized trials conducted in the Netherlands and Germany to predict dHRQoL, defined as a decrease in EQ-5D-3 L index score of ≥5% after 6-month follow-up in logistic regression models with stratified intercepts to account for between-study heterogeneity. The model was validated internally and by using internal-external cross-validation (IECV)., Results: In 3,582 patients with complete data, of whom 1,046 (29.2%) showed deterioration in HRQoL, and 12/87 variables were selected that were related to single (chronic) conditions, inappropriate medication, medication underuse, functional status, well-being, and HRQoL. Bootstrap internal validation showed a C-statistic of 0.71 (0.69 to 0.72) and a calibration slope of 0.88 (0.78 to 0.98). In the IECV loop, the model provided a pooled C-statistic of 0.68 (0.65 to 0.70) and calibration-in-the-large of 0 (-0.13 to 0.13). HRQoL/functionality had the strongest prognostic value., Conclusion: The model performed well in terms of discrimination, calibration, and generalizability and might help clinicians identify older patients at high risk of dHRQoL., Registration: PROSPERO ID: CRD42018088129., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2021
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