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Background: Sequential treatment of ankylosing spondylitis (AS) that includes tumour necrosis factor-α antagonists (anti-TNF agents) has been applied in most of the Western countries. Existing cost-effectiveness (CE) models almost exclusively presented the incremental CE of anti-TNF agents using a closed cohort while budget impact studies are mainly lacking. Notwithstanding, information on impact on total population health and societal budget as well as on actual incremental CE for a given decision time span are important for decision makers. This study aimed at quantifying, for different decision time spans starting from January 1, 2014 in the Dutch society, (1) impact of sequential drug treatment strategies without and with inclusion of anti-TNF agents (Strategies 1 and 2, respectively) on total population health and societal cost, and (2) the actual incremental CE of Strategy 2 compared to Strategy 1. Methods: Dynamic population modelling was used to capture total population health and cost, and the actual incremental CE. Distinguishing the prevalent AS population on January 1,2014 and the incident AS cohorts in the subsequent 20 years, the model tracked individually an actual number of AS patients until death or end of the simulation time. During the simulation, data on patient characteristics, history of drug use, costs and health at discrete time points were generated. In Strategy 1, five nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) were available but anti-TNF agents withdrawn. In Strategy 2, five NSAIDs and two anti-TNF agents continued to be available. Results: The predicted size of the prevalent AS population in the Dutch society varied within the range of 67,145-69,957 with 44-46% of the patients receiving anti-TNF agents over the period 2014-2034. The use of anti-TNF agents resulted in an increase in the annual drug costs (168.54-205.28 million Euros), but at the same time caused a decrease in the annual productivity costs (12.58-31.21 million Euros) and in annual costs of healthcare categories other than drugs (7.23-11.90 million Euros). Incremental cost (Euros) per QALY gained in Strategy 2 compared to Strategy 1 corresponding to decision time spans of 5,10,15 and 20 years improved slightly from 75,379 to 67,268, 63,938 and 61,129, respectively. At willingness-to-pay thresholds of 118,656,112,067,110,188 and 110,512 Euros, it was 99 % certain that Strategy 2 was cost-effective for decision time spans of 5,10,15 and 20, respectively. Conclusions: Using the dynamic population approach, the present model can project real-time data to inform a healthcare system decision that affects all actual number of AS patients eligible for anti-TNF agents within different decision time spans. The predicted total population costs of different categories in the present study can help plan the organization of the healthcare resources based on the national budget for the disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hypochlorhydric states are an important cause of iron deficiency (ID). Nevertheless, the association between therapy with proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) and ID has long been a subject of debate. This case-control study aimed to investigate the risk of ID associated with the use of PPIs using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) database., Methods: Cases were patients aged 19 years or older with first-time diagnosis of ID between 2005 and 2016 (n = 26 806). The dates of first diagnosis of ID in cases defined the index dates. For each case, one control was matched by age, gender and general practice. A PPI "full" user (PFU) was defined as a subject who had received PPIs for a continuous duration of at least 1 year prior to the index date. A PPI "limited" users (PLU) was a subject who intermittently received PPI therapy. A PPI non-user (PNU) was a subject who received no PPI prescriptions prior to the index date. The odds ratio of ID in PFU and PLU compared to PNU was estimated using conditional logistic regression., Results: Among cases, 2960 were PFU, 6607 PLU and 17 239 PNU. Among controls, 1091 were PFU, 5058 PLU and 20 657 PNU. Adjusted odds ratio of ID in PFU and PLU compared to PNU was 3.60 (95%CI, [3.32-3.91]) and 1.51 (95% CI, [1.44-1.58]). Positive dose-response and time-response relationships were observed., Conclusions: Chronic PPI use increases the risk of ID. Physicians should consider this when balancing the risks and benefits of chronic PPI prescription., (© 2018 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.)

Objective: To evaluate, from a societal perspective, the incremental cost-effectiveness of withdrawing tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) treatment compared to continuation of these drugs within a 1-year, randomized trial among rheumatoid arthritis patients with longstanding, stable disease activity or remission., Methods: Data were collected from a pragmatic, open-label trial. Cost-utility analysis was performed using the nonparametric bootstrapping method, and a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve was constructed using the net-monetary benefit framework, where a willingness-to-accept threshold (WTA) was defined as the minimal cost saved that a patient accepted for each quality-adjusted life year (QALY) lost., Results: A total of 531 patients were randomized to the stop group and 286 patients to the continuation group. Withdrawal of TNFi treatment resulted in a >60% reduction of the total drug cost, but led to an increase of ∼30% in other health care expenditures. Compared to continuation, stopping TNFi resulted in a mean yearly cost saving of €7,133 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] €6,071, €8,234]) and was associated with a mean loss of QALYs of 0.02 (95% CI 0.002, 0.040). Mean saved cost per QALY lost and per extra flare incurred in the stop group compared to the continuation group was €368,269 (95% CI €155,132, €1,675,909) and €17,670 (95% CI €13,650, €22,721), respectively. At a WTA of €98,438 per QALY lost, the probability that stopping TNFi treatment is cost-effective was 100%., Conclusion: Although an official WTA is not defined, the mean saved cost of €368,269 per QALY lost seems acceptable in The Netherlands, given existing data on willingness to pay., (© 2018, American College of Rheumatology.)

Background: Management of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is characterised by a sequence of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) and biological response modifiers (BRMs). In most of the Western countries, the drug sequences are determined based on disease activity and treatment history of the patients. A model for realistic patient outcomes should reflect the treatment pathways relevant for patients with specific characteristics., Objective: This study aimed at developing a model that could simulate long-term patient outcomes and cost effectiveness of treatment strategies with and without inclusion of BRMs following a clinical guideline for treatment decisions., Methods: Discrete event simulation taking into account patient characteristics and treatment history was used for model development. Treatment effect on disease activity, costs, health utilities and times to events were estimated using Dutch observational studies. Long-term progression of physical functioning was quantified using a linear mixed-effects model. Costs and health utilities were estimated using two-part models. The treatment strategy recommended by the Dutch Society for Rheumatology where both DMARDs and BRMs were available (Strategy 2) was compared with the treatment strategy without BRMs (Strategy 1). Ten thousand theoretical patients were tracked individually until death. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulations were performed with 1,000 sets of parameters sampled from appropriate probability distributions., Results: The simulated changes over time in disease activity and physical functioning were plausible. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained of Strategy 2 compared with Strategy 1 was 124,011. At a willingness-to-pay threshold higher than 119,167, Strategy 2 dominated Strategy 1 in terms of cost effectiveness but the probability that the Strategy 2 is cost effective never exceeded 0.87., Conclusions: It is possible to model the outcomes of complex treatment strategies based on a clinical guideline for the management of RA. Following the Dutch guideline and using real-life data, inclusion of BRMs in the treatment strategy for RA appeared to be less favourable in our model than in most of the existing models that compared drug sequences independent of patient characteristics and used data from randomised controlled clinical trials. Despite complexity and demand for extensive data, our modelling approach can help to identify the knowledge gaps in clinical guidelines for RA management and priorities for future research.