Search

Background: The disease burden of the 2009 influenza pandemic has been debated but reliable estimates are lacking. To guide future policy and control, these estimates are necessary. This study uses burden of disease measurements to assess the contribution of the pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus to the overall burden of disease in the Netherlands. Methods: The burden of disease caused by 2009 pandemic influenza was estimated by calculating Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY), a composite measure that combines incidence, sequelae and mortality associated with a disease, taking duration and severity into account. Available influenza surveillance data sources (primary care sentinel surveillance, notification data on hospitalizations and deaths and death registries) were used. Besides a baseline scenario, five alternative scenarios were used to assess effects of changing values of input parameters. Results: The baseline scenario showed a loss of 5800 DALY for the Netherlands (35 DALY per 100 000 population). This corresponds to 0.13% of the estimated annual disease burden in the Netherlands and is comparable to the estimated disease burden of seasonal influenza, despite a different age distribution in incidence and mortality of the pandemic compared to seasonal influenza. Conclusions: This disease burden estimate confirmed that, although there was a higher mortality observed among young people, the 2009 pandemic was overall a mild influenza epidemic. The disease burden of this pandemic was comparable to the burden of seasonal influenza in the Netherlands. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Q fever is a zoonosis caused by Coxiella burnetii with a presentation ranging from asymptomatic seroconversion to possibly fatal chronic Q fever. The Netherlands faced an exceptionally large outbreak of Q fever from 2007 to 2010: 4026 human cases were notified, which makes it the largest Q fever outbreak ever reported. This outbreak, because of its size, allowed collecting a wide range of information on the natural history of Q fever, as well as on its transmission and clinical presentation. It also posed unprecedented public healthcare problems, especially for the concomitant management of the epizootic by veterinarian authorities and public health authorities, but also for the management of transmission risk related to blood donation. The need for cost efficient measures emerged rapidly because of the great number of infected individuals or at risk of infection, with a need for guidance on follow-up of acute Q fever patients, screening of pregnant women, or implementation of diagnostic algorithms. The acute outbreak was controlled by drastic veterinarian measures but chronic Q fever will remain a problem for the coming years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Like in most other countries, influenza surveillance in The Netherlands is based upon influenza-like illness (ILI) consultations reported by sentinel general practitioners (GP). In addition, an internet-based monitoring of ILI in the general population started in 2003/2004 (Great Influenza Survey (GIS)). We compared GIS results over 5 influenza seasons with results from the GP system. Weekly ILI incidence from GIS correlated well with ILI incidence from the GP system the same week and even better 1 week later. This suggests that GIS is useful for early detection of trends in influenza activity. However, two important vulnerable groups, children and the elderly, are clearly underrepresented in the GIS. Furthermore, virological confirmation is lacking in the GIS. So, GIS can be a useful addition to the GP system, especially when representativeness can be improved and when participation remains at the current high level. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Objectives: In the Netherlands, during the first phase of the COVID-19 epidemic, the hotspot of COVID-19 overlapped with the country's main livestock area, while in subsequent phases this distinct spatial pattern disappeared. Previous studies show that living near livestock farms influence human respiratory health and immunological responses. This study aimed to explore whether proximity to livestock was associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection., Methods: The study population was the population of the Netherlands excluding the very strongly urbanised areas and border areas, on January 1, 2019 (12, 628, 244 individuals). The cases are the individuals reported with a laboratory-confirmed positive SARS-CoV-2 test with onset before January 1, 2022 (2, 223, 692 individuals). For each individual, we calculated distance to nearest livestock farm (cattle, goat, sheep, pig, poultry, horse, rabbit, mink). The associations between residential (6-digit postal-code) distance to the nearest livestock farm and individuals' SARS-CoV-2 status was studied with multilevel logistic regression models. Models were adjusted for individuals' age categories, the social status of the postal code area, particulate matter (PM 10 )- and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 )-concentrations. We analysed data for the entire period and population as well as separately for eight time periods (Jan-Mar, Apr-Jun, Jul-Sep and Oct-Dec in 2020 and 2021), four geographic areas of the Netherlands (north, east, west and south), and for five age categories (0-14, 15-24, 25-44, 45-64 and > 65 years)., Results: Over the period 2020-2021, individuals' SARS-CoV-2 status was associated with living closer to livestock farms. This association increased from an Odds Ratio (OR) of 1.01 (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.01-1.02) for patients living at a distance of 751-1000 m to a farm to an OR of 1.04 (95% CI 1.04-1.04), 1.07 (95% CI 1.06-1.07) and 1.11 (95% CI 1.10-1.12) for patients living in the more proximate 501-750 m, 251-500m and 0-250 m zones around farms, all relative to patients living further than 1000 m around farms. This association was observed in three out of four quarters of the year in both 2020 and 2021, and in all studied geographic areas and age groups., Conclusions: In this exploratory study with individual SARS-CoV-2 notification data and high-resolution spatial data associations were found between living near livestock farms and individuals' SARS-CoV-2 status in the Netherlands. Verification of the results in other countries is warranted, as well as investigations into possible underlying exposures and mechanisms., Competing Interests: Declaration of interest None., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Climate change, environmental change, and globalization affect the geographical distribution of vector-borne diseases. Temperate regions should be prepared for emerging diseases and learn from each other's experiences., Objectives: The vector-borne disease preparedness in two regions, Beijing and the Netherlands, were compared in order understand their similarities and differences leading to learning points on this complex topic., Methods: A comparative study was performed using interviews with vector-borne disease experts from Beijing and the Netherlands and supplemented by literature., Findings: In Beijing, syndromic surveillance is a priority for the identification of suspected vector-borne disease cases. In the Netherlands, the main surveillance emphasis is on laboratory confirmed vector-borne disease cases. Vector-surveillance at potential points of entry and other high-risk locations is performed according to the International Health Regulation (2005) in both settings. Beijing controls invasive and native mosquitos, which is not the case in the Netherlands. In Beijing, vector surveillance is performed to measure mosquito density around hospitals, this is not observed in the Dutch setting. Health risks posed by ticks are a priority in urban areas in the Netherlands, and the public is educated in self-protection. In contrast, ticks seem to occur less often in Beijing's urban areas., Conclusions: The vector-borne disease context framework allowed us to compare the vector-borne disease preparedness between Beijing and the Netherlands, despite differences in vector-borne disease challenges. We can learn valuable lessons concerning surveillance and early detection of emerging vector-borne diseases when comparing the preparedness between different regions., Competing Interests: The authors have no competing interests to declare., (Copyright: © 2022 The Author(s).)

Early detection of and treatment for chronic Q fever might prevent potentially life-threatening complications. We performed a chronic Q fever screening program in general practitioner practices in the Netherlands 10 years after a large Q fever outbreak. Thirteen general practitioner practices located in outbreak areas selected 3,419 patients who had specific underlying medical conditions, of whom 1,642 (48%) participated. Immunofluorescence assay of serum showed that 289 (18%) of 1,642 participants had a previous Coxiella burnetii infection (IgG II titer >1:64), and 9 patients were suspected of having chronic Q fever (IgG I y titer >1:512). After medical evaluation, 4 of those patients received a chronic Q fever diagnosis. The cost of screening was higher than estimated earlier, but the program was still cost-effective in certain high risk groups. Years after a large Q fever outbreak, targeted screening still detected patients with chronic Q fever and is estimated to be cost-effective.

Introduction: Since the first reports of COVID-19 cases, sex-discrepancies have been reported in COVID-19 mortality. We provide a detailed description of these sex differences in relation to age and comorbidities among notified cases as well as in relation to age and sex-specific mortality in the general Dutch population., Methods: Data on COVID-19 cases and mortality until May 31st 2020 was extracted from the national surveillance database with exclusion of healthcare workers. Association between sex and case fatality was analyzed with multivariable logistic regression. Subsequently, male-female ratio in standardized mortality ratios and population mortality rates relative to all-cause and infectious disease-specific mortality were computed stratified by age., Results: Male-female odds ratio for case fatality was 1.33 [95% CI 1.26-1.41] and among hospitalized cases 1.27 [95% CI 1.16-1.40]. This remained significant after adjustment for age and comorbidities. The male-female ratio of the standardized mortality ratio was 1.70 [95%CI 1.62-1.78]. The population mortality rate for COVID-19 was 35.1 per 100.000, with a male-female rate ratio of 1.25 (95% CI 1.18-1.31) which was higher than in all-cause population mortality and infectious disease mortality., Conclusion: Our study confirms male sex is a predisposing factor for severe outcomes of COVID-19, independent of age and comorbidities. In addition to general male-female-differences, COVID-19 specific mechanisms likely contribute to this mortality discrepancy., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: The incidence of childhood overweight and obesity is rising. It is hypothesized that infections in early childhood are associated with being overweight. This study investigated the association between the number of symptomatic infections or antibiotic prescriptions in the first 3 years of life and body mass index (BMI) in adolescence., Subjects: The current study is part of the Prevention and Incidence of Asthma and Mite Allergy population-based birth cohort study. Weight and height were measured by trained research staff at ages 12 and 16 years. The 3015 active participants at age 18 years were asked for informed consent for general practitioner (GP) data collection and 1519 gave written informed consent. Studied exposures include (1) GP-diagnosed infections, (2) antibiotic prescriptions, and (3) parent-reported infections in the first 3 years of life. Generalized estimating equation analysis was used to determine the association between each of these exposures and BMI z-score., Results: Exposure data and BMI measurement in adolescence were available for 622 participants. The frequencies of GP-diagnosed infections and antibiotic prescriptions were not associated with BMI z-score in adolescence with estimates being 0.14 (95% CI -0.09-0.37) and 0.10 (95% CI -0.14-0.34) for the highest exposure categories, respectively. Having ≥6 parent-reported infections up to age 3 years was associated with a 0.23 (95% CI 0.01-0.44) higher BMI z-score compared to <2 parent-reported infections., Conclusions: For all infectious disease measures an increase in BMI z-score for the highest childhood exposure to infectious disease was observed, although only statistically significant for parent-reported infections. These results do not show an evident link with infection severity, but suggest a possible cumulative effect of repeated symptomatic infections on overweight development.

Since the 2009 influenza pandemic, the Netherlands has used a weekly death monitoring system to estimate deaths in excess of expectations. We present estimates of excess deaths during the ongoing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic and 10 previous influenza epidemics. Excess deaths per influenza epidemic averaged 4,000. The estimated 9,554 excess deaths (41% in excess) during the COVID-19 epidemic weeks 12-19 of 2020 appeared comparable to the 9,373 excess deaths (18%) during the severe influenza epidemic of 2017-18. However, these deaths occurred in a shorter time, had a higher peak, and were mitigated by nonpharmaceutical control measures. Excess deaths were 1.8-fold higher than reported laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths (5,449). Based on excess deaths and preliminary results from seroepidemiologic studies, we estimated the infection-fatality rate to be 1%. Monitoring of excess deaths is crucial for timely estimates of disease burden for influenza and COVID-19. Our data complement laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 death reports and enable comparisons between epidemics.

We examined Coxiella burnetii seroconversion rates by measuring C. burnetii IgG among 2 cohorts of veterinary students. During follow-up of 118 seronegative veterinary students, 23 students seroconverted. Although the clinical importance of the presence of antibodies is unknown, veterinary students should be informed about the potential risks for Q fever.

Background: Surveillance of acute respiratory infections (ARI) in the Netherlands and other European countries is based mostly on primary care data, with little insight into the severe spectrum of the disease. We compared time-trends for ARI in secondary care with influenza-like illness (ILI), ARI and pneumonia in primary care, and crude mortality, in order to assess the value of routinely collected data on respiratory infections in hospitals and the added value of severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) surveillance., Methods: We calculated incidence of ARI in secondary care, ILI, ARI, and pneumonia in primary care, and crude mortality using five historical databases (2008-2016)., Results: Over eight years, seasonal incidence peaks of ARI in secondary care occurred earlier than ILI and ARI incidence peaks in primary care, except during the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic and post-pandemic season. The median time-lag between ARI in secondary care and ILI, ARI and pneumonia in primary care was 6.5 weeks, 7 weeks, and 1 week, respectively. Crude mortality lagged a median 5 weeks behind ARI in secondary care., Conclusion: This observational study demonstrates that routinely collected data can be used for describing trends of ARI in secondary care and may be suitable for near real-time SARI surveillance. In most seasons, the incidence peaks for ARI in secondary care preceded the peaks in primary care and crude mortality with a considerable time-lag. It would be of great value to add microbiological test results to the incidence data to better explain the difference in time-lag between these surveillance systems.

Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory tract illness in young children and a major cause of hospital admissions globally., Methods: Here we fit age-structured transmission models with immunity propagation to data from the Netherlands (2012-2017). Data included nationwide hospitalizations with confirmed RSV, general practitioner (GP) data on attendance for care from acute respiratory infection, and virological testing of acute respiratory infections at the GP. The transmission models, equipped with key parameter estimates, were used to predict the impact of maternal and pediatric vaccination., Results: Estimates of the basic reproduction number were generally high (R0 > 10 in scenarios with high statistical support), while susceptibility was estimated to be low in nonelderly adults (<10% in persons 20-64 years) and was higher in older adults (≥65 years). Scenario analyses predicted that maternal vaccination reduces the incidence of infection in vulnerable infants (<1 year) and shifts the age of first infection from infants to young children., Conclusions: Pediatric vaccination is expected to reduce the incidence of infection in infants and young children (0-5 years), slightly increase incidence in 5 to 9-year-old children, and have minor indirect benefits., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background/aim: From 2007 through 2010, the Netherlands experienced the largest recorded Q fever outbreak to date. People living closer to Coxiella burnetii infected goat farms were at increased risk for acute Q fever. Time spent outdoors near infected farms may have contributed to exposure to C. burnetii. The aim of this study was to retrospectively evaluate whether hours/week spent outdoors, in the vicinity of previously C. burnetii infected goat farms, was associated with presence of antibodies against C. burnetii in residents of a rural area in the Netherlands., Methods: Between 2014-2015, we collected C. burnetii antibody serology and self-reported data about habitual hours/week spent outdoors near the home from 2494 adults. From a subgroup we collected 941 GPS tracks, enabling analyses of active mobility in the outbreak region. Participants were categorised as exposed if they spent time within specified distances (500m, 1000m, 2000m, or 4000m) of C. burnetii infected goat farms. We evaluated whether time spent near these farms was associated with positive C. burnetii serology using spline analyses and logistic regression., Results: People that spent more hours/week outdoors near infected farms had a significantly increased risk for positive C. burnetii serology (time spent within 2000m of a C. burnetii abortion-wave positive farm, OR 3.6 (1.2-10.6)), compared to people spending less hours/week outdoors., Conclusions: Outdoor exposure contributed to the risk of becoming C. burnetii serology positive. These associations were stronger if people spent more time near C. burnetii infected farms. Outdoor exposure should, if feasible, be included in outbreak investigations., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest All authors declare they have no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Objective: Influenza virus infections cause a high disease and economic burden during seasonal epidemics. However, there is still a need for reliable disease burden estimates to provide a more detailed picture of the impact of influenza. Therefore, the objectives of this study is to estimate the incidence of hospitalisation for influenza virus infection and associated hospitalisation costs in adult patients in the Netherlands during two consecutive influenza seasons., Methods: We conducted a retrospective study in adult patients with a laboratory confirmed influenza virus infection in three Dutch hospitals during respiratory seasons 2014-2015 and 2015-2016. Incidence was calculated as the weekly number of hospitalised influenza patients divided by the total population in the catchment populations of the three hospitals. Arithmetic mean hospitalisation costs per patient were estimated and included costs for emergency department consultation, diagnostics, general ward and/or intensive care unit admission, isolation, antibiotic and/or antiviral treatment. These hospitalisation costs were extrapolated to national level and expressed in 2017 euros., Results: The study population consisted of 380 hospitalised adult influenza patients. The seasonal cumulative incidence was 3.5 cases per 10,000 persons in respiratory season 2014-2015, compared to 1.8 cases per 10,000 persons in 2015-2016. The arithmetic mean hospitalisation cost per influenza patient was €6128 (95% CI €4934-€7737) per patient in 2014-2015 and €8280 (95% CI €6254-€10,665) in 2015-2016, potentially reaching total hospitalisation costs of €28 million in 2014-2015 and €20 million in 2015-2016., Conclusions: Influenza virus infections lead to 1.8-3.5 hospitalised patients per 10,000 persons, with mean hospitalisation costs of €6100-€8300 per adult patient, resulting in 20-28 million euros annually in The Netherlands. The highest arithmetic mean hospitalisation costs per patient were found in the 45-64 year age group. These influenza burden estimates could be used for future influenza cost-effectiveness and impact studies.

Background: Ambulance dispatches could be useful for syndromic surveillance of severe respiratory infections. We evaluated whether ambulance dispatch calls of highest urgency reflect the circulation of influenza A virus, influenza B virus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), rhinovirus, adenovirus, coronavirus, parainfluenzavirus and human metapneumovirus (hMPV)., Methods: We analysed calls from four ambulance call centres serving 25% of the population in the Netherlands (2014-2016). The chief symptom and urgency level is recorded during triage; we restricted our analysis to calls with the highest urgency and identified those compatible with a respiratory syndrome. We modelled the relation between respiratory syndrome calls (RSC) and respiratory virus trends using binomial regression with identity link function., Results: We included 211 739 calls, of which 15 385 (7.3%) were RSC. Proportion of RSC showed periodicity with winter peaks and smaller interseasonal increases. Overall, 15% of RSC were attributable to respiratory viruses (20% in out-of-office hour calls). There was large variation by age group: in <15 years, only RSV was associated and explained 11% of RSC; in 15-64 years, only influenza A (explained 3% of RSC); and in ≥65 years adenovirus explained 9% of RSC, distributed throughout the year, and hMPV (4%) and influenza A (1%) mainly during the winter peaks. Additionally, rhinovirus was associated with total RSC., Conclusion: High urgency ambulance dispatches reflect the burden of different respiratory viruses and might be useful to monitor the respiratory season overall. Influenza plays a smaller role than other viruses: RSV is important in children while adenovirus and hMPV are the biggest contributors to emergency calls in the elderly., (© 2020 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Objective: To determine whether children play a role in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to other children and adults, and to gain insight into symptomatic and asymptomatic infections in children., Design: Analysis of national COVID-19 notifications and prospective observational study in families with children., Method: Information about COVID-19 patients and their contacts was obtained from the registration systems used by the public health services. In an ongoing study, patients with COVID-19 were asked to participate if they have a family with children. On two occasions nose-throat swabs and blood were collected for PCR analysis and determination of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2., Results: The notifications suggest that transmission finds place mainly between adults and to a lesser extent between parents and children. For the family study, data were available from 54 households with a total of 227 participants. In families of a confirmed COVID-19 patient, children between 1 and 11 years were less often positive in PCR and serology than older children and adults., Conclusion: The study gives no indications that children play an important role in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Children can indeed become infected, but transmission mainly takes place between adult peers and from adult family members to children. Transmission among children or from children to adults, as is known in influenza, appears to be less common. Ongoing studies should provide important information for further decision-making on control measures, such as closure of schools.

Three quarters of tuberculosis (TB) patients in the Netherlands are foreign-born; 26% are from Eritrea or Somalia. We analyzed TB incidence rates in asylum seekers from Eritrea and Somalia in the first 5 years after arrival in the Netherlands (2013-2017) and performed survival analysis with Cox proportional hazards regression to analyze the effect of age and sex on the risk for TB. TB incidence remained high 5 years after arrival in asylum seekers from Eritrea (309 cases/100,000 person-years) and Somalia (81 cases/100,000 person-years). Age >18 years was associated with a higher risk for TB in asylum seekers from Eritrea (3.4 times higher) and Somalia (3.7 times higher), and male sex was associated with a 1.6 times higher risk for TB in asylum seekers from Eritrea. Screening and treating asylum seekers from high-incidence areas for latent TB infection upon arrival would further reduce TB incidence in the Netherlands.

Background: The Netherlands, like most European countries, has a robust influenza surveillance system in primary care. However, there is a lack of real-time nationally representative data on hospital admissions for complications of influenza. Anecdotal information about hospital capacity problems during influenza epidemics can, therefore, not be substantiated., Objective: The aim of this study was to assess whether media reports could provide relevant information for estimating the impact of influenza on hospital capacity, in the absence of hospital surveillance data., Methods: Dutch news articles on influenza in hospitals during the influenza season (week 40 of 2017 until week 20 of 2018) were searched in a Web-based media monitoring program (Coosto). Trends in the number of weekly articles were compared with trends in 5 different influenza surveillance systems. A content analysis was performed on a selection of news articles, and information on the hospital, department, problem, and preventive or response measures was collected., Results: The trend in weekly news articles correlated significantly with the trends in all 5 surveillance systems, including severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) surveillance. However, the peak in all 5 surveillance systems preceded the peak in news articles. Content analysis showed hospitals (N=69) had major capacity problems (46/69, 67%), resulting in admission stops (9/46, 20%), postponement of nonurgent surgical procedures (29/46, 63%), or both (8/46, 17%). Only few hospitals reported the use of point-of-care testing (5/69, 7%) or a separate influenza ward (3/69, 4%) to accelerate clinical management, but most resorted to ad hoc crisis management (34/69, 49%)., Conclusions: Media reports showed that the 2017/2018 influenza epidemic caused serious problems in hospitals throughout the country. However, because of the time lag in media reporting, it is not a suitable alternative for near real-time SARI surveillance. A robust SARI surveillance program is important to inform decision making., (©Daphne FM Reukers, Sierk D Marbus, Hella Smit, Peter Schneeberger, Gé Donker, Wim van der Hoek, Arianne B van Gageldonk-Lafeber. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (http://publichealth.jmir.org), 04.03.2020.)

To rapidly assess possible community transmission in Noord-Brabant, the Netherlands, healthcare workers (HCW) with mild respiratory complaints and without epidemiological link (contact with confirmed case or visited areas with active circulation) were tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Within 2 days, 1,097 HCW in nine hospitals were tested; 45 (4.1%) were positive. Of six hospitals with positive HCW, two accounted for 38 positive HCW. The results informed local and national risk management.

In the aftermath of a large Q fever (QF) epidemic in the Netherlands during 2007-2010, new chronic QF (CQF) patients continue to be detected. We developed a health-economic decision model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a 1-time screening program for CQF 7 years after the epidemic. The model was parameterized with spatial data on QF notifications for the Netherlands, prevalence data from targeted screening studies, and clinical data from the national QF database. The cost-effectiveness of screening varied substantially among subpopulations and geographic areas. Screening that focused on cardiovascular risk patients in areas with high QF incidence during the epidemic ranged from cost-saving to €31,373 per quality-adjusted life year gained, depending on the method to estimate the prevalence of CQF. The cost per quality-adjusted life year of mass screening of all older adults was €70,000 in the most optimistic scenario.

Background: From 2007 through 2010, a large epidemic of acute Q fever occurred in the Netherlands. Patients with cardiac valvulopathy are at high risk to develop chronic Q fever after an acute infection. This patient group was not routinely screened, so it is unknown whether all their chronic infections were diagnosed. This study aims to investigate how many chronic Q fever patients can be identified by routinely screening patients with valvulopathy and to establish whether the policy of not screening should be changed., Methods: In a cross-sectional study (2016-2017) in a hospital at the epicentre of the Q fever epidemic, a blood sample was taken from patients 18 years and older who presented with cardiac valvulopathy. The sample was tested for IgG antibodies against phase I and II of Coxiella burnetii using an immunofluorescence assay. An IgG phase II titre of ≥1:64 was considered serological evidence of a previous Q fever infection. An IgG phase I titre of ≥1:512 was considered suspicious for a chronic infection, and these patients were referred for medical examination., Results: Of the 904 included patients, 133 (15%) had evidence of a previous C. burnetii infection, of whom 6 (5%) had a chronic infection on medical examination., Conclusions: In a group of high-risk patients with a heart valve defect, we diagnosed new chronic Q fever infections seven years after the epidemic, emphasizing the need for screening of this group to prevent complications in those not yet diagnosed in epidemic areas., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Influenza epidemics annually cause substantial morbidity and mortality. For this reason, vaccination is offered yearly to persons with an elevated risk for complications. Assessments of the impact of vaccination are, however, hampered by year-to-year variation in epidemic size and vaccine effectiveness. We estimate the impact of the current vaccination programme comparing simulations with vaccination to counterfactual simulations without vaccination. The simulations rely on an age- and risk-structured transmission model that tracks the build-up and loss of immunity over successive seasons, and that allows the vaccine match to vary between seasons. The model parameters are estimated with a particle Monte Carlo method and approximate Bayesian computation, using epidemiological data on vaccine effectiveness and epidemic size in the Netherlands over a period of 11 years. The number of infections, hospitalisations and deaths vary greatly between years because waning of immunity and vaccine match may differ every season, which is in line with observed variation in influenza epidemic sizes. At an overall coverage of 21%, vaccination has averted on average 13% (7.2-19%, 95% range) of infections, 24% (16-36%) of hospitalisations, and 35% (16-50%) of deaths. This suggests that vaccination is mainly effective in protecting vaccinees from infection rather than reducing transmission. As the Dutch population continues to grow and age, the vaccination programme is projected (up to 2025) to gain in impact, despite a decreasing infection attack rate., (Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Seasonal influenza causes a high disease burden. Many influenza vaccination programmes target the elderly and persons at high risk of complications. Some countries have recommended or even implemented a paediatric vaccination programme. Such a programme is expected to reduce influenza transmission in the population, offering direct protection to the vaccinated children and indirect protection to the elderly. We study the impact of a child vaccination programme with an age- and risk-structured transmission model, calibrated to data of 11 influenza seasons in the Netherlands. The model tracks the build-up of immunes and susceptibles in each age cohort over time, and it allows for seasonal variation in vaccine match and antigenic drift. Different vaccination strategies are evaluated for three target age groups (2-3, 2-12 and 2-16 year olds) over the full range of vaccination coverages (0-100%). The results show that the paediatric vaccination programme has only a limited impact on the elderly age groups, which account for most influenza morbidity and mortality. This is due to two notable changes in infection dynamics. First, an age shift is observed: influenza infections are reduced in vaccinated children, but are increased in young adults with limited natural immunity after years of vaccination. These young adults assume the role of driving the epidemic. Second, a year with low influenza activity can be followed by a large epidemic due to build-up of susceptibles. This variation of the infection attack rate increases with increasing vaccination coverage. The increased variability in the infection attack rate implies that health care facilities should be prepared for rare but larger peaks in influenza patients. Moreover, vaccinating the group with the highest transmission potential, results in a larger dependency on a secure vaccine supply. These arguments should be taken into account in the decision to introduce mass vaccination of school-aged children against influenza., (Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

From 2007 to 2010, the largest reported Q-fever epidemic occurred in the Netherlands with 4026 notified laboratory-confirmed cases. During the course of the epidemic, health-seeking behaviour changed and awareness among health professionals increased. Changes in laboratory workflows were implemented. The aim of this study was to analyse how these changes instigated adjustments of notification criteria and how these adjustments affected the monitoring and interpretation of the epidemic. We used the articles on laboratory procedures related to the epidemic and a description of the changes that were made to the notification criteria. We compared the output of a regional laboratory with notifications to the regional Public Health Service and the national register of infectious diseases. We compared the international notification criteria for acute Q-fever. Screening with ELISA IgM phase II and PCR was added to the diagnostic workflow. In the course of the epidemic, serology often revealed a positive IgG/IgM result although cases were not infected recently. With increasing background seroprevalence, the presence of IgM antibodies can only be suggestive for acute Q-fever and has to be confirmed either by seroconversion of IgG or a positive PCR result. Differences in sero-epidemiology make it unlikely that full harmonisation of notification criteria between countries is feasible.

Background: While influenza-like-illness (ILI) surveillance is well-organized at primary care level in Europe, few data are available on more severe cases. With retrospective data from intensive care units (ICU) we aim to fill this current knowledge gap. Using multiple parameters proposed by the World Health Organization we estimate the burden of severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in the ICU and how this varies between influenza epidemics., Methods: We analyzed weekly ICU admissions in the Netherlands (2007-2016) from the National Intensive Care Evaluation (NICE) quality registry (100% coverage of adult ICUs in 2016; population size 14 million) to calculate SARI incidence, SARI peak levels, ICU SARI mortality, SARI mean Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV score, and the ICU SARI/ILI ratio. These parameters were calculated both yearly and per separate influenza epidemic (defined epidemic weeks). A SARI syndrome was defined as admission diagnosis being any of six pneumonia or pulmonary sepsis codes in the APACHE IV prognostic model. Influenza epidemic periods were retrieved from primary care sentinel influenza surveillance data., Results: Annually, an average of 13% of medical admissions to adult ICUs were for a SARI but varied widely between weeks (minimum 5% to maximum 25% per week). Admissions for bacterial pneumonia (59%) and pulmonary sepsis (25%) contributed most to ICU SARI. Between the eight different influenza epidemics under study, the value of each of the severity parameters varied. Per parameter the minimum and maximum of those eight values were as follows: ICU SARI incidence 558-2400 cumulated admissions nationwide, rate 0.40-1.71/10,000 inhabitants; average APACHE score 71-78; ICU SARI mortality 13-20%; ICU SARI/ILI ratio 8-17 cases per 1000 expected medically attended ILI in primary care); peak-incidence 101-188 ICU SARI admissions in highest-incidence week, rate 0.07-0.13/10,000 population)., Conclusions: In the ICU there is great variation between the yearly influenza epidemic periods in terms of different influenza severity parameters. The parameters also complement each other by reflecting different aspects of severity. Prospective syndromic ICU SARI surveillance, as proposed by the World Health Organization, thereby would provide insight into the severity of ongoing influenza epidemics, which differ from season to season.

The variable-number tandem-repeat (VNTR) typing method is used to study tuberculosis (TB) transmission. Clustering of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates with identical VNTR patterns is assumed to reflect recent transmission. Hence, clusters are thought to be homogeneous regarding antibiotic resistance. In practice, however, heterogeneous clusters are also identified. This study investigates the prevalence and characteristics of heterogeneous VNTR clusters and assesses whether isolates in these clusters remain clustered when subjected to whole-genome sequencing (WGS). In the period from 2004 to 2016, 9,072 isolates were included. Demographic and epidemiological linkage data were obtained from the Netherlands Tuberculosis Register. VNTR clusters were defined as homogeneous when isolates shared identical resistance profiles or as heterogeneous if both susceptible and (variable) resistant isolates were found. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with heterogeneous clustering. Isolates from 2016 were subjected to WGS, and a genetic distance of 12 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) was used as the cutoff for WGS clustering. In total, 4,661/9,072 (51%) isolates were clustered into 985 different VNTR clusters, of which 217 (22%) were heterogeneous. Patient characteristics associated with heterogeneous clustering were non-Dutch ethnicity (odds ratio [OR], 1.46 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.22 to 1.75]), asylum seeker (OR, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.24 to 1.85]), extrapulmonary TB (OR, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.09 to 1.46]), previous TB diagnosis (OR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.04 to 1.82]), and not being a contact of a TB patient (OR, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.08 to 1.69]). With WGS, 34% of heterogeneous and 78% of homogeneous isolates from 2016 remained clustered. Heterogeneous VNTR clusters are common but seem to be explained by a substantial degree of false clustering by VNTR typing compared to WGS., (Copyright © 2018 American Society for Microbiology.)

A biologic wastewater treatment plant was identified as a common source for 2 consecutive Legionnaires' disease clusters in the Netherlands in 2016 and 2017. Sequence typing and transmission modeling indicated direct and long-distance transmission of Legionella, indicating this source type should also be investigated in sporadic Legionnaires' disease cases.

We estimated the influenza mortality burden in adults aged 60 years or older in the Netherlands in terms of years of life lost, taking into account competing mortality risks. Weekly laboratory surveillance data for influenza and other respiratory pathogens and weekly extreme temperature served as covariates in Poisson regression models fitted to weekly mortality data, specific to age group, for the period 1999-2000 through 2012-2013. Burden for age groups 60-64 years through 85-89 years was computed as years of life lost before age 90 (YLL90), using restricted mean lifetime survival analysis and accounting for competing risks. Influenza-attributable mortality burden was greatest for persons aged 80-84 years, at 914 YLL90 per 100,000 persons (95% uncertainty interval: 867, 963), followed by persons aged 85-89 years (787 YLL90/100,000; 95% uncertainty interval: 741, 834). Ignoring competing mortality risks in the computation of influenza-attributable YLL90 would lead to substantial overestimation of burden, from 3.5% for persons aged 60-64 years to 82% for those aged 80-89 years at death. Failure to account for competing mortality risks has implications for the accuracy of disease-burden estimates, especially among persons aged 80 years or older. Because the mortality burden borne by the elderly is notably high, prevention initiatives may benefit from being redesigned to more effectively prevent infection in the oldest age groups.

Background: Echocardiographic screening of acute Q-fever patients and antibiotic prophylaxis for patients with cardiac valvulopathy is considered an important approach to prevent chronic Q-fever-related endocarditis. During a large Q-fever epidemic in the Netherlands, routine screening echocardiography was discontinued, raising controversy in the international literature. We followed a cohort of acute Q-fever patients to estimate the risk for developing chronic Q-fever, and we evaluated the impact of screening in patients who were not yet known to have a valvulopathy., Methods: The study population consisted of patients diagnosed with acute Q-fever in 2007 and 2008. We retrospectively reviewed all screening echocardiographs and checked for development of chronic Q-fever 8 years after the acute episode. Risks of developing chronic Q-fever in relation to the presence or absence of valvulopathy were analyzed with logistic regression., Results: The cohort included 509 patients, of whom 306 received echocardiographic screening. There was no significant difference (P-value = .22) in occurrence of chronic Q-fever between patients with a newly detected valvulopathy (2/84, 2.4%) and those with no valvulopathy (12/202, 5.9%). Two patients with a newly detected valvulopathy, who did not receive antibiotic prophylaxis, developed chronic Q-fever at a later stage., Conclusions: We found no difference in outcome between patients with and without a valvulopathy newly detected by echocardiographic screening. In retrospect, the 2 above-mentioned patients could have benefitted from antibiotic prophylaxis, but its omission must be weighed against the unnecessary large-scale and long-term use of antibiotics that would have resulted from universal echocardiographic screening.

We previously observed an increased incidence of pneumonia in persons living near goat and poultry farms, using animal presence around the home to define exposure. However, it is unclear to what extent individual mobility and time spent outdoors close to home contributes to this increased risk. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to investigate the role of mobility patterns and time spent outdoors in the vicinity of goat or poultry farms in relation to pneumonia risk. In a rural Dutch cohort, 941 members logged their mobility using GPS trackers for 7 days. Pneumonia was diagnosed in 83 subjects (participants reported that pneumonia had been diagnosed by a medical doctor, or recorded in EMR from general practitioners, 2011-2014). We used logistic regression to evaluate pneumonia-risk by presence of goat farms within 500 and 1000 m around the home and around GPS-tracks (only non-motorised mobility), also we evaluated whether more time spent outdoors increased pneumonia-risks. We observed a clearly increased risk of pneumonia among people living in close proximity to goat farms, ORs increased with closer distances of homes to farms (500 m: 6.2 (95% CI 2.2-16.5) 1000 m: 2.5 (1.4-4.3)) The risk increased for individuals who spent more time outdoors close to home, but only if homes were close to goat farms (within 500 m and often outdoors: 12.7 (3.6-45.4) less often: 2.0 (0.3-9.2), no goat farms and often outdoors: 1.0 (0.6-1.6)). For poultry we found no increased risks. Pneumonia-risks increased when people lived near goat farms, especially when they spent more time outdoors, mobility does not seem to add to these risks., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: Between 2007 and 2010, the Netherlands experienced large outbreaks of Q fever with over 4000 cases. There were unexplained geographical differences in hospitalisation rates of notified patients. We examined the extent of this geographic variation in Q fever hospitalisation and its potential association with general practitioner (GP) experience with Q fever., Methods: We included Q fever cases notified by GPs in 2008 and 2009 in the affected public health region. We used linear regression to describe trends of hospitalisation over time and tested for statistical differences in hospitalisation between municipalities with the chi-square test. We used the number of previously diagnosed Q fever cases of an individual GP as a proxy for Q fever experience, grouped into four categories of GP experience (1; 2; 3-7 and 8 or more cases). We calculated adjusted odds ratios (OR) using logistic regression, taking into account clustering at the GP level., Results: The proportion of hospitalised cases was highly variable between municipalities (range 0-56%, p-value < 0.001). The proportion of hospitalised cases decreased monthly by 0.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.03-1.3%). The risk of hospitalisation was lower when GPs had seen eight or more Q fever cases compared with GPs who had seen only one case (OR 0.4 [95% CI: 0.2-0.8])., Discussion: Our findings suggest that increased GP experience was associated with a reduction in hospitalisations. This supports the public health initiatives to disseminate epidemiological updates and information regarding diagnostic and therapeutic options for Q fever to GPs to reduce Q fever related hospitalisation.

Since 2004, variable-number tandem-repeat (VNTR) typing of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex isolates has been applied on a structural basis in The Netherlands to study the epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB). Although this technique is faster and technically less demanding than the previously used restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) typing, reproducibility remains a concern. In the period from 2004 to 2015, 8,532 isolates were subjected to VNTR typing in The Netherlands, with 186 (2.2%) of these exhibiting double alleles at one locus. Double alleles were most common in loci 4052 and 2163b. The variables significantly associated with double alleles were urban living (odds ratio [OR], 1.503; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.084 to 2.084; P = 0.014) and pulmonary TB (OR, 1.703; 95% CI, 1.216 to 2.386; P = 0.002). Single-colony cultures of double-allele strains were produced and revealed single-allele profiles; a maximum of five single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) was observed between the single- and double-allele isolates from the same patient when whole-genome sequencing (WGS) was applied. This indicates the presence of two bacterial populations with slightly different VNTR profiles in the parental population, related to genetic drift. This observation is confirmed by the fact that secondary cases from TB source cases with double-allele isolates sometimes display only one of the two alleles present in the source case. Double alleles occur at a frequency of 2.2% in VNTR patterns in The Netherlands. They are caused by biological variation rather than by technical aberrations and can be transmitted either as single- or double-allele variants., (Copyright © 2018 Jajou et al.)

In many countries, Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates are routinely subjected to variable-number tandem-repeat (VNTR) typing to investigate M. tuberculosis transmission. Unexpectedly, cross-border clusters were identified among African refugees in the Netherlands and Denmark, although transmission in those countries was unlikely. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) was applied to analyze transmission in depth and to assess the precision of VNTR typing. WGS was applied to 40 M. tuberculosis isolates from refugees in the Netherlands and Denmark (most of whom were from the Horn of Africa) that shared the exact same VNTR profile. Cluster investigations were undertaken to identify in-country epidemiological links. Combining WGS results for the isolates (all members of the central Asian strain [CAS]/Delhi genotype), from both European countries, an average genetic distance of 80 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (maximum, 153 SNPs) was observed. The few pairs of isolates with confirmed epidemiological links, except for one pair, had a maximum distance of 12 SNPs. WGS divided this refugee cluster into several subclusters of patients from the same country of origin. Although the M. tuberculosis cases, mainly originating from African countries, shared the exact same VNTR profile, most were clearly distinguished by WGS. The average genetic distance in this specific VNTR cluster was 2 times greater than that in other VNTR clusters. Thus, identical VNTR profiles did not represent recent direct M. tuberculosis transmission for this group of patients. It appears that either these strains from Africa are extremely conserved genetically or there is ongoing transmission of this genotype among refugees on their long migration routes from Africa to Europe., (Copyright © 2018 Jajou et al.)

A cross-sectional study was performed among 2494 adults not living or working on a farm to assess prevalence of Clostridium difficile (CD) colonization and risk factors in a livestock dense area. CD prevalence was 1·2%. Twenty-one persons were colonized with a toxigenic strain and nine with a non-toxigenic strain. CD-positive persons did not live closer to livestock farms than individuals negative for CD. Antibiotic exposure in the preceding 3 months was a risk factor for CD colonization (odds ratio 3·70; 95% confidence interval 1·25-10·95).

From 2007 to 2010, The Netherlands experienced a major Q fever outbreak with more than 4000 notifications. Previous studies suggested that Q fever patients could suffer long-term post-infection health impairments, especially fatigue. Our objective was to assess the Coxiella burnetii antibody prevalence and health status including fatigue, and assess their interrelationship in Herpen, a high-incidence village, 7 years after the outbreak began. In 2014, we invited all 2161 adult inhabitants for a questionnaire and a C. burnetii indirect fluorescence antibody assay (IFA). The health status was measured with the Nijmegen Clinical Screening Instrument (NCSI), consisting of eight subdomains including fatigue. Of the 70·1% (1517/2161) participants, 33·8% (513/1517) were IFA positive. Of 147 participants who were IFA positive in 2007, 25 (17%) seroreverted and were now IFA negative. Not positive IFA status, but age <50 years, smoking and co-morbidity, were independent risk factors for fatigue. Notified participants reported significantly more often fatigue (31/49, 63%) than non-notified IFA-positive participants (150/451, 33%). Although fatigue is a common sequel after acute Q fever, in this community-based survey we found no difference in fatigue levels between participants with and without C. burnetii antibodies.

Background: Implementation of additional targeted vaccinations to prevent infectious diseases in the older adults is under discussion in different countries. When considering the added value of such preventive measures, insight into the current disease burden will assist in prioritization. The aim of this study was derive the first estimates of the disease burden in adults aged 50 years or over in the Netherlands for influenza, pertussis, pneumococcal disease and herpes zoster., Methods: The average annual disease burden for these four diseases in the Netherlands was calculated for the period 2010-2013 using the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) measure. Disease models and parameters were obtained from previous research. Where possible we adapted these models specifically for older adults and applied age-specific parameters derived from literature. The disease burden based on these adapted models and parameters was compared with the disease burden based on the general population models., Results: The estimated average annual disease burden was from high to low: pneumococcal disease (37,223 DALYs/year), influenza (7941 DALYs/year), herpes zoster (942 DALYs/year), and pertussis (812 DALYs/year). The adaptation of models and parameters specifically for the elderly resulted in a higher disease burden compared to the use of general population models., Conclusions: Among older adults, the disease burden in the period 2010-2013 was highest for pneumococcal disease, mostly because of high mortality, followed by influenza. Disease burden of herpes zoster and pertussis was relatively low and consisted mostly of years lived with disability. Better information on the course of infectious diseases and long-term consequences would enable more accurate estimation of disease burden in older adults., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Viral interaction in which outbreaks of influenza and other common respiratory viruses might affect each other has been postulated by several short studies. Regarding longer time periods, influenza epidemics occasionally occur very early in the season, as during the 2009 pandemic. Whether early occurrence of influenza epidemics impacts outbreaks of other common seasonal viruses is not clear., Objectives: We investigated whether early occurrence of influenza outbreaks coincides with shifts in the occurrence of other common viruses, including both respiratory and non-respiratory viruses., Methods: We investigated time trends of and the correlation between positive laboratory diagnoses of eight common viruses in the Netherlands over a 10-year time period (2003-2012): influenza viruses types A and B, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), rhinovirus, coronavirus, norovirus, enterovirus, and rotavirus. We compared trends in viruses between early and late influenza seasons., Results: Between 2003 and 2012, influenza B, RSV, and coronavirus showed shifts in their occurrence when influenza A epidemics occurred earlier than usual (before week 1). Although shifts were not always consistently of the same type, when influenza type A hit early, RSV outbreaks tended to be delayed, coronavirus outbreaks tended to be intensified, and influenza virus type B tended not to occur at all. Occurrence of rhinovirus, norovirus, rotavirus, and enterovirus did not change., Conclusion: When influenza A epidemics occured early, timing of the epidemics of several respiratory winter viruses usually occurring close in time to influenza A was affected, while trends in rhinoviruses (occurring in autumn) and trends in enteral viruses were not., (© 2015 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: From 2007 to 2009, the Netherlands experienced a major Q fever epidemic. Long-term serological follow-up of acute Q fever patients enabled the investigation of longitudinal antibody responses and estimating the onset of the seroresponse in individual patients., Methods: All available IgG and IgM phase I and II antibody measurements determined by immunofluorescence assay at month 3, 6, 12, and 48 from 2321 acute Q fever patients were retrospectively analyzed. Characteristic features of the antibody response were calculated. To model the seroresponse onset, serological data from patients diagnosed with a positive C. burnetii PCR test (n=364), and therefore with a known time of infection, were used as reference., Results: In 9083 IgG samples and 3260 IgM samples large heterogeneity in shape and magnitude of antibody responses was observed. Phase II reached higher levels than phase I, and IgG antibodies were more persistent than IgM. The estimated seroresponse latency allowed for determining the time since start of the seroresponse from the concentrations of the different antibodies against C. burnetii., Conclusions: The extraordinary large serological dataset provides new insight into the kinetics of the immunoglobulins against C. burnetii antigens. This knowledge is useful for seroprevalence studies and helps to better understand infection dynamics., (Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Q fever patients are often reported to experience a long-term impaired health status, including fatigue, which can persist for many years. During the large Q fever epidemic in The Netherlands, many patients with a laboratory-confirmed Coxiella burnetii infection were not notified as acute Q fever because they did not fulfil the clinical criteria of the acute Q fever case definition (fever, pneumonia and/or hepatitis). Our study assessed and compared the long-term health status of notified and non-notified Q fever patients at 4 years after onset of illness, using the Nijmegen Clinical Screening Instrument (NCSI). The study included 448 notified and 193 non-notified Q fever patients. The most severely affected subdomain in both patient groups was 'Fatigue' (50·5% of the notified and 54·6% of the non-notified patients had severe fatigue). Long-term health status did not differ significantly between the notified and non-notified patient groups, and patients scored worse on all subdomains compared to a healthy reference group. Our findings suggest that the magnitude of the 2007-2009 Q fever outbreak in The Netherlands was underestimated when only notified patients according to the European Union case definition are considered.

Background: Serological follow-up of acute Q-fever patients is important for detection of chronic infection but there is no consensus on its frequency and duration. The 2007-2009 Q-fever epidemic in the Netherlands allowed for long-term follow-up of a large cohort of acute Q-fever patients. The aim of this study was to validate the current follow-up strategy targeted to identify patients with chronic Q-fever., Methods: A cohort of adult acute Q-fever patients, diagnosed between 2007 and 2009, for whom a twelve-month follow-up sample was available, was invited to complete a questionnaire and provide a blood sample, four years after the acute episode. Antibody profiles, determined by immunofluorescence assay in serum, were investigated with a special focus on high titres of IgG antibodies against phase I of Coxiella burnetii, as these are considered indicative for possible chronic Q-fever., Results: Of the invited 1,907 patients fulfilling inclusion criteria, 1,289 (67.6%) were included in the analysis. At any time during the four-year follow-up period, 58 (4.5%) patients were classified as possible, probable, or proven chronic Q-fever according to the Dutch Q-fever Consensus Group criteria (which uses IgG phase I ≥1:1,024 to as serologic criterion for chronic Q-fever). Fifty-two (89.7%) of these were identified within the first year after the acute episode. Of the six patients that were detected for the first time at four-year follow-up, five had an IgG phase I titre of 1:512 at twelve months., Conclusions: A twelve-month follow-up check after acute Q-fever is recommended as it adequately detects chronic Q-fever in patients without known risk factors. Additional serological and clinical follow-up is recommended for patients with IgG phase I ≥1:512, as they showed the highest risk to progress to chronic Q-fever.

Introduction: From 2007 through 2010, the Netherlands experienced a large Q-fever epidemic, with 4,107 notifications. The most serious complication of Q-fever is chronic Q-fever., Method: In 2014, we contacted all 2,161 adult inhabitants of the first village in the Netherlands affected by the Q-fever epidemic and offered to test for antibodies against Coxiella burnetii using immunofluorescence assay (IFA) to screen for chronic infections and assess whether large-scale population screening elsewhere is warranted., Results: Of the 1,517 participants, 33.8% were IFA-positive. Six IFA-positive participants had an IgG phase I titer ≥1:512. Two of these six participants were previously diagnosed with chronic Q-fever. Chronic infection was diagnosed in one of the other four participants after clinical examination., Conclusions: Seven years after the initial outbreak, seroprevalence remains high, but the yield of screening the general population for chronic Q-fever is low. A policy of screening known high-risk groups for chronic Q-fever in outbreak areas directly following an outbreak might be more efficient than population screening. A cost-effectiveness analysis should also be performed before initiating a population screening program for chronic Q-fever.

Objective: Whether areas affected by Q fever during a large outbreak (2008-2010) had higher rates of adverse pregnancy outcomes than areas not affected by Q fever., Design: Nationwide registry-based ecological study., Setting: Pregnant women in areas affected and not affected by Q fever in the Netherlands, 2003-2004 and 2008-2010., Participants: Index group (N=58,737): pregnant women in 307 areas with more than two Q fever notifications. Reference group (N=310,635): pregnant women in 921 areas without Q fever notifications. As a baseline, pregnant women in index and reference areas in the years 2003-2004 were also included in the reference group to estimate the effect of Q fever in 2008-2010, and not the already existing differences before the outbreak., Main Outcome Measures: Preterm delivery, small for gestational age, perinatal mortality., Results: In 2008-2010, there was no association between residing in a Q fever-affected area and both preterm delivery (adjusted OR 1.01 (95% CI 0.94 to 1.08)), and perinatal mortality (adjusted OR 0.87 (95% CI 0.72 to 1.05)). In contrast, we found a weak significant association between residing in a Q fever-affected area in 2008-2010 and small for gestational age (adjusted OR 1.06 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.12)), with a population-attributable fraction of 0.70% (95% CI 0.07% to 1.34%). We observed no dose-response relation for this outcome with increasing Q fever notifications, and we did not find a stronger association for women who were in their first trimester of pregnancy during the months of high human Q fever incidence., Conclusions: This study found a weak association between residing in a Q fever-affected area and the pregnancy outcome small for gestational age. Early detection of infection would require mass screening of pregnant women; this does not seem to be justified considering these results, and the uncertainties about its efficacy and the adverse effects of antibiotic treatment., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.)

Background: Atmospheric dispersion models (ADMs) may help to assess human exposure to airborne pathogens. However, there is as yet limited quantified evidence that modelled concentrations are indeed associated to observed human incidence., Methods: We correlated human Q fever (caused by the bacterium Coxiella burnetii) incidence data in the Netherlands to modelled concentrations from three spatial exposure models: 1) a NULL model with a uniform concentration distribution, 2) a DISTANCE model with concentrations proportional to the distance between the source and residential addresses of patients, and 3) concentrations modelled by an ADM using three simple emission profiles. We used a generalized linear model to correlate the observed incidences to modelled concentrations and validated it using cross-validation., Results: ADM concentrations generally correlated the best to the incidence data. The DISTANCE model always performed significantly better than the NULL model. ADM concentrations based on wind speeds exceeding threshold values of 0 and 2 m/s performed better than those based on 4 or 6 m/s. This might indicate additional exposure to bacteria originating from a contaminated environment., Conclusions: By adding meteorological information the correlation between modelled concentration and observed incidence improved, despite using three simple emission profiles. Although additional information is needed - especially regarding emission data - these results provide a basis for the use of ADMs to predict and to visualize the spread of airborne pathogens during livestock, industry and even bio-terroristic related outbreaks or releases to a surrounding human population.

In 2009 two notable outbreaks, Q fever and the novel influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, occurred in The Netherlands. Using a composite health measure, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), the outbreaks were quantified and compared. DALYs were calculated using standardized methodology incorporating age- and sex-stratified data in a disease progression model; years lost due to disability and years of life lost were computed by outcome. Nationally, influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 caused more DALYs (24 484) than Q fever (5797). However, Q fever was 8·28 times more severe [497 DALYs/1000 symptomatic cases (DP1SC)] than A(H1N1)pdm09 (60 DP1SC). The A(H1N1)pdm09 burden is largely due to mortality while the Q fever burden is due primarily to long-term sequelae. Intervention prioritization for influenza should support patients in a critical condition while for Q fever it should target immediate containment and support for patients with long-term sequelae. Burden estimates provide guidance for focusing intervention options during outbreaks of infectious diseases.

During August and September 2010 an unexpected high number of domestic cases of Legionnaires' disease (LD) were reported in The Netherlands. To examine this increase, patient characteristics and results of source finding and environmental sampling during the summer peak were compared to other domestic cases in 2008-2011. This analysis did not provide an explanation for the rise in cases. A similar increase in LD cases in 2006 was shown to be associated with warm and wet weather conditions, using an extended Poisson regression model with adjustment for long-term trends. This model was optimized with the new data from 2008 to 2011. The increase in 2010 was very accurately described by a model, which included temperature in the preceding 4 weeks, and precipitation in the preceding 2 weeks. These results confirm the strong association of LD incidence with weather conditions, but it remains unclear which environmental sources contributed to the 2010 summer increase.

We analyzed the Q fever epidemic in the Netherlands on a national scale from a spatial point of view. Data on dairy goat farms and Dutch population, whether or not infected, were geo-referenced. Human cases were counted in GIS at different distance classes for all dairy goat farms, farms with Q fever based on BTM analysis, and farms with clinical symptoms. In all selections, human incidence decreased with increasing distances from dairy goat farms. Incidence was highest around farms with clinical symptoms. Depending on the acceptable incidence value, a dairy goat-free zone around residential areas could be defined. Cluster analyses were performed to identify local clusters of both infected farms and human cases and to identify focused clusters of human cases. Focused clusters were detected for only 14 out of 29 farms with clinical symptoms, giving rise to a new hypothesis on the transmission of Q fever.

Objectives: To estimate, using Bayesian evidence synthesis, the age-group-specific annual incidence of symptomatic infection with seasonal influenza in the Netherlands over the period 2005-2007., Methods: The Netherlands population and age group distribution for 2006 defined the base population. The number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases was estimated from sentinel surveillance data and adjusted for underascertainment using the estimated proportion of ILI cases that do not consult a general practitioner. The estimated number of symptomatic influenza (SI) cases was based on indirect evidence from the surveillance of ILI cases and the proportions of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in the 2004/5, 2005/6 and 2006/7 respiratory years. In scenario analysis, the number of SI cases prevented by increasing vaccination uptake within the 65 +  age group was estimated., Results: The overall symptomatic infection attack rate (SIAR) over the period 2005-2007 was estimated at 2·5% (95% credible interval [CI]: 2·1-3·2%); 410 200 SI cases (95% CI: 338 500-518 600) were estimated to occur annually. Age-group-specific SIARs were estimated for <5 years at 4·9% (2·1-13·7%), for 5-14 years at 3·0% (2·0-4·7%), for 15-44 years at 2·6% (2·1-3·2%), for 45-64 years at 1·9% (1·4-2·5%) and for 65 +  years at 1·7% (1·0-3·0%). Under assumed vaccination uptake increases of 5% and 15%, 1970 and 5310 SI cases would be averted., Conclusions: By synthesising the available information on seasonal influenza and ILI from diverse sources, the annual extent of symptomatic infection can be derived. These estimates are useful for assessing the burden of seasonal influenza and for guiding vaccination policy., (© 2013 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Objectives: Severe influenza can lead to Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission. We explored whether ICU data reflect influenza like illness (ILI) activity in the general population, and whether ICU respiratory infections can predict influenza epidemics., Methods: We calculated the time lag and correlation between ILI incidence (from ILI sentinel surveillance, based on general practitioners (GP) consultations) and percentages of ICU admissions with a respiratory infection (from the Dutch National Intensive Care Registry) over the years 2003-2011. In addition, ICU data of the first three years was used to build three regression models to predict the start and end of influenza epidemics in the years thereafter, one to three weeks ahead. The predicted start and end of influenza epidemics were compared with observed start and end of such epidemics according to the incidence of ILI., Results: Peaks in respiratory ICU admissions lasted longer than peaks in ILI incidence rates. Increases in ICU admissions occurred on average two days earlier compared to ILI. Predicting influenza epidemics one, two, or three weeks ahead yielded positive predictive values ranging from 0.52 to 0.78, and sensitivities from 0.34 to 0.51., Conclusions: ICU data was associated with ILI activity, with increases in ICU data often occurring earlier and for a longer time period. However, in the Netherlands, predicting influenza epidemics in the general population using ICU data was imprecise, with low positive predictive values and sensitivities.

Background: Source identification in areas with outbreaks of airborne pathogens is often time-consuming and expensive. We developed a model to identify the most likely location of sources of airborne pathogens., Methods: As a case study, we retrospectively analyzed three Q fever outbreaks in the Netherlands in 2009, each with suspected exposure from a single large dairy goat farm. Model input consisted only of case residential addresses, day of first clinical symptoms, and human population density data. We defined a spatial grid and fitted an exponentially declining function to the incidence-distance data of each grid point. For any grid point with a fit significant at the 95% confidence level, we calculated a measure of risk. For validation, we used results from abortion notifications, voluntary (2008) and mandatory (2009) bulk tank milk sampling at large (i.e. >50 goats and/or sheep) dairy farms, and non-systematic vaginal swab sampling at large and small dairy and non-dairy goat/sheep farms. In addition, we performed a two-source simulation study., Results: Hotspots--areas most likely to contain the actual source--were identified at early outbreak stages, based on the earliest 2-10% of the case notifications. Distances between the hotspots and suspected goat farms varied from 300-1500 m. In regional likelihood rankings including all large dairy farms, the suspected goat farms consistently ranked first. The two-source simulation study showed that detection of sources is most clear if the distance between the sources is either relatively small or relatively large., Conclusions: Our model identifies the most likely location of sources in an airborne pathogen outbreak area, even at early stages. It can help to reduce the number of potential sources to be investigated by microbial testing and to allow rapid implementation of interventions to limit the number of human infections and to reduce the risk of source-to-source transmission.

There are still questions about the importance of different animal reservoirs and environmental factors that played a role in the large Q fever epidemic in The Netherlands. We therefore investigated the spatial association between reported Q fever cases and different livestock and environmental factors at the national level. A spatial regression analysis was performed, with four-digit postal code areas as the unit of analysis. High level of particulate matter (< 24.5 μg/m³) with an aerodynamic diameter <10 μm (PM10) was by far the strongest risk factor for human Q fever with an odds ratio of 10.4 (95% confidence interval 7.0-15.6) using PM10 <24.5 μg/m³ as reference, in logistic regression analysis, controlling for differences in animal densities, vegetation and other risk factors. Particulate matter seems to play an important role in the transmission of Q fever from infected animals to humans and should be a focus for further studies on zoonotic infectious diseases and decision-making.