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We used sediment diatoms to infer historical changes in total phosphorus (TP) concentration in 26 New York and New Jersey (USA) lakes using a top–bottom approach (i.e., the top of the core represents present conditions and the bottom represents past conditions). Detailed stratigraphic analyses were performed on cores from Greenwood (New Jersey and New York) and Cossayuna lakes (New York). TP reconstructions were performed using 2 weighted-averaging partial-least-squares (WA-PLS) transfer functions: (1) an interregional 278-lake calibration set from northeastern United States (NE-US model: r2boot= 0.69, root mean square error of prediction RMSEP) = 1.8 μg/L); and (2) a regional 33-lake (callibration set from New Jersey and New York (NJ-NY model: r2boot= 0.54, RMSEP = 1.5 μg/L). The NJ-NY model provided better estimates for modern TP but failed to provide reliable estimates for low TP values and reliable modern analogs for half of the bottom samples. Low TP concentrations were better inferred by the NE-US model, which included a higher number of oligotrophic lakes. Average change for all lakes was an increase of 2 to 7 μg/L TP. Greenwood and Cossayuna lakes inferred TP concentrations have increased up to 21 μg/L, presumably as a result of post-settlement anthropogenic activities. The inferred TP temporal changes provide important insight on the magnitude of cultural eutrophication. The use of 2 different inference models demonstrates the advantage of using a regional versus a larger-scale inference model in estimating the degree of change in historical lake TP. Careful interpretation of TP reconstructions can be used to provide reliable estimates of cost-effective targets for lake restoration programs. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]