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External sediment supply is an important control on wetland morphology and vulnerability to storms, sea-level rise, and land use change. Constraining sediment supply and net budgets is difficult due to multiple timescales of variability in hydrodynamic forcing and suspended sediment concentrations, as well as the fundamental limitations of measurement and modeling technologies. We used two independent observational campaigns and one hydrodynamic modeling effort to estimate the sediment supply to Jamaica Bay, New York, USA, an urbanized embayment with a history of extensive wetland loss. We found that all three estimates indicate a net import to the system, ranging from 36 to 74 kt/year, with a mean estimate of 55 kt/year ± 31 kt/year, which is consistent with a prior estimate derived from radionuclide tracers. Net sediment import is controlled by flood-ebb asymmetry in bed shear stress, which results in higher suspended sediment concentrations on flood tide relative to ebb. This indicates a seaward source of sediment that is resuspended by waves in the coastal ocean, likely offshore marine deposits or potentially from the adjacent Hudson River estuary. Despite the net sediment import, a simple sediment budget suggests that the rate of supply is not sufficient to maintain the present geomorphic planform of the system relative to sea-level rise. The convergent estimates from independent methods provide reasonable guidance as context for sediment-based restoration efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Oysters play important roles in estuarine ecosystems but have suffered recently due to overfishing, pollution, and habitat loss. A tradeoff between growth rate and disease prevalence as a function of salinity makes the estuarine salinity transition of special concern for oyster survival and restoration. Estuarine salinity varies with discharge, so increases or decreases in precipitation with climate change may shift regions of low salinity and disease refuge away from optimal oyster bottom habitat, negatively impacting reproduction and survival. Temperature is an additional factor for oyster survival, and recent temperature increases have increased vulnerability to disease in higher salinity regions. Methodology/Principal Findings: We examined growth, reproduction, and survival of oysters in the New York Harbor- Hudson River region, focusing on a low-salinity refuge in the estuary. Observations were during two years when rainfall was above average and comparable to projected future increases in precipitation in the region and a past period of about 15 years with high precipitation. We found a clear tradeoff between oyster growth and vulnerability to disease. Oysters survived well when exposed to intermediate salinities during two summers (2008, 2010) with moderate discharge conditions. However, increased precipitation and discharge in 2009 reduced salinities in the region with suitable benthic habitat, greatly increasing oyster mortality. To evaluate the estuarine conditions over longer periods, we applied a numerical model of the Hudson to simulate salinities over the past century. Model results suggest that much of the region with suitable benthic habitat that historically had been a low salinity refuge region may be vulnerable to higher mortality under projected increases in precipitation and discharge. Conclusions/Significance: Predicted increases in precipitation in the northeastern United States due to climate change may lower salinities past important thresholds for oyster survival in estuarine regions with appropriate substrate, potentially disrupting metapopulation dynamics and impeding oyster restoration efforts, especially in the Hudson estuary where a large basin constitutes an excellent refuge from disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A tidally averaged model of estuarine dynamics is used to estimate sediment transport in the Hudson River estuary over the period 1918 to 2005. In long-term and seasonal means, along-channel gradients in sediment flux depend on the estuarine salinity gradient and along-channel depth profile. Lateral depth variation across the estuary affects the near-bottom baroclinic circulation and consequently the direction of net sediment flux, with generally up-estuary transport in the channel and down-estuary transport on the shoals. Sediment transport capacity in the lower estuary depends largely on river discharge, but is modified by the timing of discharge events with respect to the spring-neap cycle and subtidal fluctuations in sea level. Sediment transport capacity also depends on the duration of high-discharge events relative to the estuarine response time, a factor that varies seasonally with discharge and estuarine length. Sediment fluxes are calculated with the assumption that over long periods, the system approaches morphological equilibrium and sediment accumulation equals sea level rise. The inferred across- and along-channel distributions of sediment erodibility correspond with observations of bed properties. Equilibrium is assumed at long time scales, but at annual to decadal time scales the estuary can develop an excess or deficit of sediment relative to equilibrium. On average, sediment accumulates in the estuary during low- and high-discharge periods and is exported during moderate discharge. During high-discharge periods, maximum export coincides with maximum sediment supply from the watershed, but the nearly cubic discharge dependence of fluvial sediment supply overwhelms the roughly linear increase in estuarine transport capacity. Consequently, sediment accumulates in the estuary during the highest flow conditions. Uncertainty remains in the model, particularly with sediment properties and boundary conditions, but the results clearly indicate variability in the sediment mass balance over long time scales due to discharge events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]