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Predicting campylobacteriosis cases is a matter of considerable concern in New Zealand, after the number of the notified cases was the highest among the developed countries in 2006. Thus, there is a need to develop a model or a tool to predict accurately the number of campylobacteriosis cases as the Microbial Risk Assessment Model used to predict the number of campylobacteriosis cases failed to predict accurately the number of actual cases. We explore the appropriateness of classical time series modelling approaches for predicting campylobacteriosis. Finding the most appropriate time series model for New Zealand data has additional practical considerations given a possible structural change, that is, a specific and sudden change in response to the implemented interventions. A univariate methodological approach was used to predict monthly disease cases using New Zealand surveillance data of campylobacteriosis incidence from 1998 to 2009. The data from the years 1998 to 2008 were used to model the time series with the year 2009 held out of the data set for model validation. The best two models were then fitted to the full 1998-2009 data and used to predict for each month of 2010. The Holt-Winters (multiplicative) and ARIMA (additive) intervention models were considered the best models for predicting campylobacteriosis in New Zealand. It was noticed that the prediction by an additive ARIMA with intervention was slightly better than the prediction by a Holt-Winter multiplicative method for the annual total in year 2010, the former predicting only 23 cases less than the actual reported cases. It is confirmed that classical time series techniques such as ARIMA with intervention and Holt-Winters can provide a good prediction performance for campylobacteriosis risk in New Zealand. The results reported by this study are useful to the New Zealand Health and Safety Authority's efforts in addressing the problem of the campylobacteriosis epidemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture carries a high fatality rate. AAAs can be detected before rupture by abdominal ultrasound imaging, allowing elective repair. Population‐based screening for AAA in older men reduces AAA‐related mortality by about 40 per cent. The UK began an AAA screening programme offering one‐off scans to men aged 65 years in 2009. Sweden has a similar programme. Currently, there is no AAA screening programme in New Zealand. This cost–utility analysis aimed to assess the cost‐effectiveness of a UK‐style screening programme in the New Zealand setting. Methods: The analysis compared a formal AAA screening programme (one‐off abdominal ultrasound imaging for about 20 000 men aged 65 years in 2011) with no systematic screening. A Markov macrosimulation model was adapted to estimate the health gains (in quality‐adjusted life‐years, QALYs), health system costs and cost‐effectiveness in New Zealand. A health system perspective and lifetime horizon was adopted. Results: With New Zealand‐specific inputs, the adapted model produced an estimate of about NZ $15 300 (€7746) per QALY gained, with a 95 per cent uncertainty interval (UI) of NZ $8700 to 31 000 (€4405 to 15 694) per QALY gained. Health gains were estimated at 117 (95 per cent UI 53 to 212) QALYs. Health system costs were NZ $1·68 million (€850 535), with a 95 per cent UI of NZ $820 200 to 3·24 million (€415 243 to €1·65 million). Conclusion: Using New Zealand's gross domestic product per capita (about NZ $45 000 or €22 100) as a cost‐effectiveness threshold, a UK‐style AAA screening programme would be cost‐effective in New Zealand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is a common and important cause of pain and disability, but interventions aimed at modifying structures visible on imaging have been disappointing. While OA affects the whole joint, synovitis and effusion have been recognised as having a role in the pathogenesis of OA. Krill oil reduces knee pain and systemic inflammation and could be used for targeting inflammatory mechanisms of OA.Methods/design: We will recruit 260 patients with clinical knee OA, significant knee pain and effusion-synovitis present on MRI in five Australian cities (Hobart, Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide and Perth). These patients will be randomly allocated to the two arms of the study, receiving 2 g/day krill oil or inert placebo daily for 6 months. MRI of the study knee will be performed at screening and after 6 months. Knee symptoms, function and MRI structural abnormalities will be assessed using validated methods. Safety data will be recorded. Primary outcomes are absolute change in knee pain (assessed by visual analog score) and change in size of knee effusion-synovitis over 24 weeks. Secondary outcomes include improvement in knee pain over 4, 8, 12, 16 and 20 weeks. The primary analyses will be intention-to-treat analyses of primary and secondary outcomes. Per protocol analyses adjusting for missing data and for treatment compliance will be performed as the secondary analyses.Discussion: This study will provide high-quality evidence to assess whether krill oil 2 g/day reduces pain and effusion-synovitis size in older adults with clinical knee OA and knee effusion-synovitis. If krill oil is effective and confirmed to be safe, we will provide compelling evidence that krill oil improves pain and function, changes disease trajectory and slows disease progression in OA. Given the lack of approved therapies for slowing disease progression in OA, and moderate cost of krill oil, these findings will be readily translated into clinical practice.Trial Registration: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12616000726459. Registered on 02 June 2016. Universal Trial Number (UTN) U1111-1181-7087. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an epidemic in New Zealand of infectious bovine anaemia associated with Theileria orientalis Ikeda type, an obligate intracellular protozoan parasite. To establish whether T. orientalis Ikeda type infection adversely affects fertility of bulls used for natural mating, a randomised controlled experimental study was conducted. Ten of 17 2-year-old Friesian bulls that had not been previously infected with T. orientalis were infected with T. orientalis Ikeda type and then evaluations occurred during a 20-week period. There were semen and libido evaluations every 2 weeks, starting 4 weeks before the date of infection. In addition, there were blood collections, for haematocrit and infection intensity evaluations, rectal temperatures recorded, and bulls weighed three times weekly for 13 weeks after infection and then once weekly until completion of the study. Physical activity meters were also attached from Days 9–60 and 65–124 post-infection. The ten bulls were successfully infected with T. orientalis Ikeda type and this resulted in a decrease in HCT to about 0.25 by 70 days post-infection. There were no effects of infection on semen quality; however, during the acute phase of infection, when the infection intensity was rapidly increasing, the infected bulls took a longer time period for repeated mounting of females, and were less dominant in the herd social heiracrchy. In conclusion, although the transitory effects on libido could reduce conception rates, the overall effects of T. orientalis Ikeda type infection on bull fertility will probably be little. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]