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Following the 2016 M7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, a time-varying seismic hazard model (KSHM) was developed to inform decision-making for the reinstatement of road and rail networks in the northern South Island. The source model is the sum of a gridded 100-year earthquake clustering model and an updated fault source model. The gridded model comprises long-term, medium-term and short-term components. The 100-year gridded model is constructed as the sum of 100 annual forecasts. A discounting method trades off expected earthquake occurrences of the distant future against those of the near future. The fault source model includes updates to account for newly revealed faults that ruptured in the Kaikōura earthquake and other recently obtained new information, and new time-varying probabilities of rupture for four fault segments. Two different characterisations of the Hikurangi subduction interface are incorporated via a logic tree, with weights determined by an expert panel. A suite of ground motion prediction equations contribute to a logic tree in order to account for epistemic uncertainties in source modelling for each of four tectonic region types. Here, we compare the resulting hazard estimates with the 2010 National Seismic hazard Model and recorded motions in past New Zealand and global earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents ground motion and site effect observations in the greater Wellington region from the 14 November 2016 Mw7.8 Kaikōura earthquake. The region was the principal urban area to be affected by the earthquake-induced ground motions from this event. Despite being approximately 60km from the northern extent of the causative earthquake rupture, the ground motions inWellington exhibited long period (specifically T = 1-3s) ground motion amplitudes that were similar to, and in some locations exceeded, the current 500 year return period design ground motion levels. Several ground motion observations on rock provide significant constraint to understand the role of surficial site effects in the recorded ground motions. The largest long period ground motions were observed in the Thorndon and Te Aro basins in Wellington City, inferred as a result of 1D impedance contrasts and also basin-edge-generated waves. Observed site amplifications, based on response spectral ratios with reference rock sites, are seen to significantly exceed the site class factors in NZS1170.5:2004 for site class C, D, and E sites at approximately T=0.3-3.0s. The 5-95% Significant Duration, Ds595, of ground motions was on the order of 30 seconds, consistent with empirical models for this earthquake magnitude and source-to-site distance. Such durations are slightly longer than the corresponding Ds595 = 10s and 25s in central Christchurch during the 22 February 2011 Mw6:2 and 4 September 2010 Mw7.1 earthquakes, but significantly shorter than what might be expected for large subduction zone earthquakes that pose a hazard to the region. In summary, the observations highlight the need to better understand and quantify basin and near-surface site response effects through more comprehensive models, and better account for such effects through site amplification factors in design standards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: To improve our understanding of active faulting away from the main plate boundary on New Zealand''s South Island, we have acquired high resolution seismic data across the Ostler Fault Zone Twelve 1.2km long lines perpendicular to fault strike and a 1.6km long crossline were collected in a region of the MacKenzie Basin where surface mapping delineates significant complexity in the form of two non-overlapping reverse fault strands separated by a transfer zone characterised by multiple smaller strands and increased folding. Interpretation of the resultant images includes a 45–55° west-dipping principal fault and two 25–30° west-dipping subsidiary faults, one in the hanging wall and one in the footwall of the principal fault. The geologically mapped complexities are shown to be caused by shallow variations in the structure of the principal fault, which breaks the surface in the north and south but not within the transfer zone, where it forms a triangle zone with associated backthrusting and minor faulting. These complexities only extend to ~300m depth. Structures below this level are markedly simpler and much more 2D in nature, with the principal fault strand extending over a much longer distance than the individual strands observed at the surface. Since longer faults are susceptible to larger earthquakes than shorter ones, seismic hazard at the study site may be higher than previously thought. Multiple surface fault strands that give way to a single more major stand at relatively shallow depths may be a common feature of segmented fault systems. The deepest layered reflections at our site are consistent with the presence of a Late Cretaceous (?)–Tertiary basin underlying the present-day MacKenzie Basin. Structural restoration of the seismic images back to the base of Quaternary fluvioglacial terraces and back to the top of a Late Pliocene–Pleistocene fluviolacustrine unit indicate that compression was initiated prior to the Late Pliocene and that it has continued at a comparatively steady rate of about a millimetre per year to the present day. The fluviolacustrine unit has experienced 440–800m of along-fault vertical offset and 870–1080m of horizontal shortening since that time. Our study demonstrates that structural reconstructions based on high resolution seismic reflection data provide critical displacement information that can be used to estimate slip rates. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Where they are preserved, landforms that have been truncated and offset by past fault movements provide potentially valuable quantitative data that can be used to estimate slip rates. At such locations, it is important to investigate the fault zone in sufficient detail to understand how displacements are accommodated on individual fault strands. At a site along a northern section of the Alpine fault zone on the South Island of New Zealand, surface mapping of a series of faulted river terraces and channels has revealed a complicated and poorly understood paleoearthquake history. We have acquired high-resolution 2- and 3-D ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data over a large area (~500×500m) of the terraces to map along-strike changes in shallow (<20m) fault zone morphology. By identifying distinct reflection patterns within the topographically migrated 3-D GPR volumes and extrapolating them to the longer and more widely spaced GPR profiles, we determined the subsurface extent of two main structural/depositional facies that were juxtaposed by three left-stepping en-echelon fault strands. Two regions of warped strata are interpreted to result from transpressive folding between the overlapping strands, where displacement is transferred from one fault to the next. We suggest that diffuse deformation between the overlapping fault tips results in anomalously low estimates for horizontal and vertical fault displacements of some geomorphic features. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Defining a reliable subsoil model is one of the most crucial points in the evaluation of the local seismic response, especially when the study area presents a complex geological setting. Performing a large number of investigations during and subsequently a seismic crisis (following a strong earthquake) is useful for collecting valuable data. By applying a multidisciplinary approach, these data can be used for constraining and test the model, as well as for directly evaluating the effects of strong earthquakes on the environment and the distribution of structural damages in heavily populated areas. In the present study, through a new multidisciplinary experimental–numerical approach, we investigated the role of local site conditions on the damage observed in the Central Business District (CBD) of Wellington (New Zealand) after the 2016 M7.8 Kaikōura event. Numerical 1D/2D site response analyses were carried out to explore the hypothesis of damage exacerbation due to basin effects. Our numerical models were then validated by comparing the corresponding numerical amplification functions with those derived from the application of the standard spectral ratio technique to a large accelerogram dataset. This dataset was obtained by GeoNet stations deployed in the study area, including those operative during the 2016 M7.8 Kaikōura event. Differences in ground motion for near- and far-field events were highlighted. Our results show that the site response in the Wellington CBD was controlled by complex 2D/3D valley effects (mainly edge effects), which were related to the local buried geomorphology. Overall, these findings suggest that the type and location of an earthquake influence the maximum distance at which 2D effects (generated at the basin edge) are still detectable. Comparing our dataset with those from other published studies would be useful for clarifying the factors leading to an exacerbation of the seismic response in alluvial basins. This study has also possible implications for seismic hazard mitigation in cities built on such basins. We conclude that robust numerical 2D models can provide and capture notable characteristics of the ground motion associated with basin effects. These characteristics are fundamental for understanding basin effects and should be considered when formulating building regulations. • Integrated experimental-numerical approaches should be adopted to define reliable subsoil models in heavily populated areas • Site effects contributed to damage observed in the Wellington CBD after the M7.8 2016 Kaikōura earthquake • Site response in the Wellington CBD is controlled by 3D valley effects • The distance at which edge effects are still detectable would be influenced by the energy content of the input earthquake. • Nonlinearity tends to increase 2D basin effects [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]