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The correlation of landscape features with genetic discontinuities reveals barriers to dispersal that can contribute to understanding present and future spread of wildlife diseases. This knowledge can then be used for targeting control efforts. The impact of natural barriers on raccoon dispersal was assessed through genetic analysis of samples from two regions, Niagara ( N = 666) and St. Lawrence ( N = 802). These areas are transected by major rivers and are at the northern front of a raccoon rabies epizootic. Genetic clusters were identified in each region using Bayesian clustering algorithms. In the Niagara region, two clusters were identified corresponding to either side of the Niagara River. For the St. Lawrence region, spatially congruent clusters were not identified, despite the presence of the intervening St. Lawrence River. These genetic data are consistent with raccoon rabies incidence data where rabies has been detected across the St. Lawrence River in Ontario while no cases have been detected in Ontario across the Niagara River. This is despite expectations of rabies incidence in Niagara before the St. Lawrence based on the progression of rabies from New York. The results from the two regions suggest different permeabilities to raccoons between New York and Ontario that may be attributed to the rivers. However, other factors have also been explored that could contribute to this difference between these study sites including the shape of the landscape and resource distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Landscape barriers influence movement patterns of animals, which in turn, affect spatio-temporal spread of infectious wildlife disease. We compare genetic data from computer simulations to those acquired from field samples to measure the effect of a landscape barrier on raccoon (Procyon lotor) movement, enabling risk assessment of raccoon rabies disease spread across the Niagara River from New York State into Ontario, an area currently uninfected by rabies. An individual-based spatially explicit model is used to simulate the expansion of a raccoon population to cross the Niagara River, for different permeabilities of the river to raccoon crossings. Since the model records individual raccoon genetics, the genetic population structure of neutral mitochondrial DNA haplotypes are characterised in the expanding population, every 25 years, using a genetic distance measure, ϕ ST, Mantel tests and a gene diversity measure. The river barrier effect is assessed by comparing genetic measures computed from model outputs to those calculated from 166 raccoons recently sampled from the same landscape. The “best fit” between modelled scenarios and field data indicate the river prevents 50% of attempts to cross the river. Founder effects dominated the colonizing genetic population structure, and, as the river barrier effect increased, its genetic diversity decreased. Using gene flow to calibrate the effect of the river as a barrier to movement provides an estimate of the effect of a river in reducing the likelihood of cross-river infection. Including individual genetic markers in simulation modelling benefits investigations of disease spread and control. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]