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This paper examines how differences in state's 'embedded autonomy' (i.e., the historical relationship between farmers and the state, public institutions, and state capacity) in El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua shaped the management of the 2012 coffee leaf rust (CLR) epidemic, resulting in differential responses. We conducted 80 interviews with key coffee-sector actors and six focus groups representing 20 farmer organizations and 19 technical assistance providers to understand these divergent responses. We first examined the dynamic, historical, and relational contexts of contradictions, contestation, and negotiation in agri-food networks influencing each response. We then explored how the role of the state and agrarian structures in each country affected farmers' performance and access to different support systems for renovating and rehabilitating coffee plantations in response to the CLR epidemic. In El Salvador and Nicaragua, oligarchic control, weak state relationships with small coffee farmers and fragmented bureaucracies hindered effective CLR crisis response and recovery. Although farmers' organizations, NGOs, and the private sector attempt to fill the gap using market or 'user pay' mechanisms for CLR management, they cannot fully compensate for the state's shortcomings. In contrast, Honduras, which is closest to a 'developmental state' in the coffee sector, performed better. This is attributed to its more pro-smallholder development path since the 1970s, which bolstered state institutional structures and fostered social ties and dynamism within smallholder organizations in the coffee sector. However, decentralization and clientelist relations limited the country's ability to propose long-term CLR management strategies. We argue that a state's 'embedded autonomy' is critical in determining its approach and effectiveness in managing CLR crises and collaborating with and supporting coffee farmers. Finally, we highlight the importance of considering both conjunctural factors (such as meteorological and economic conditions) and the state's historical capacity and embeddedness in analyzing CLR outbreaks and their effects across different countries. • This study investigates El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua's divergent responses to and recovery trajectories from the 2012 coffee leaf rust (CLR) crisis. • The role of the state and agrarian structures in each country affected farmers' performance and access to different support systems after 2012 CLR crisis. • Weak state relationships and fragmented bureaucracies in El Salvador and Nicaragua hindered effective crisis response and recovery. • Honduras outperformed El Salvador and Nicaragua in CLR management due to existing state structures and social ties built since the 1970s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coffee leaf rust (CLR) epidemics on Coffea arabica have led to severe socio-economic crises in Latin America starting in 2008. Until now, the scattered nature of scientific and empirical knowledge of the highly complex CLR-coffee pathosystem has been an obstacle to the development of CLR forecasting models. To help prevent new severe epidemics, we built ExpeRoya, a qualitative model, based on a review of the scientific literature and expert opinion, to forecast the risk of a monthly increase in the incidence of CLR at plot and landscape levels. We adopted the IPSIM (Injury Profile SIMulator) framework, a qualitative and aggregative modeling approach that describes the effects of the cropping system and the plot environment on injuries, thereby making it possible to incorporate scattered knowledge on the system and all its complexity in a simplified way. Involving experts makes this approach powerful and robust because it builds on empirical knowledge based on a very large number of field observations. We argue that broad expert knowledge provides more accurate information on the manifold interactions in the system than existing quantitative models can. The structure of ExpeRoya was discussed with coffee sector experts in 19 workshops and validated in an online survey with 17 CLR experts. ExpeRoya successfully integrates in a simple way 229 multiple interactions that exist within the CLR-coffee pathosystem based on only 12 input variables easily acquired in the field: one incidence monitoring variable; two meteorological variables (temperature and rainfall), four crop management variables (management of shade cover, fungicide application, nutrition and pruning of coffee trees) and five coffee tree characteristics (dates of flowering, beginning and end of harvest, fruit load and cultivar genetic resistance). Coffee institutes in Honduras and Nicaragua now use ExpeRoya, hosted by the platform Pergamino (https://www.redpergamino.net/app-experoya), to assist them in preparing their monthly CLR warning bulletins for growers. ExpeRoya is an improved forecasting model of CLR by fully incorporating the main biophysical factors affecting CLR at the plot and landscape levels. ExpeRoya is both a framework and a proof of concept that improves both forecasting and the comprehensive modeling of CLR. ExpeRoya is a powerful yet user-friendly model designed for all actors of the coffee sector, particularly smallholder farmers and extension agents. ExpeRoya is adaptable: users can modify the model according to advances in knowledge and/or their own expertise of the system. ExpeRoya can help prevent future socio-economic crises. [Display omitted] • Scattered knowledge on the multifactorial coffee leaf rust (CLR)-coffee pathosystem has hampered CLR forecasting models. • ExpeRoya model computes interactions between disease, host, cropping practices and weather to forecast the risk of CLR rise. • ExpeRoya integrates in a simple way 229 multiple relationships to forecast the risk of CLR at plot and landscape levels. • Coffee institutes from Latin America use ExpeRoya to prepare their monthly CLR warning bulletins for producers. • ExpeRoya is adaptable and user-friendly; it can help prevent future socio-economic crises of the coffee sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coffee rust (Hemileia vastatrix) epidemics of an intensity never seen before have hit Central America since 2012. This study set out to identify management and socio-economic factors that facilitate coffee rust development in Nicaragua and to learn how farmers perceive these epidemics. To that end, we conducted a series of interviews with farmers and carried out field observations a year after the peak of the 2012-13 epidemic. Twenty-nine pairs of plots (a pair was one heavily hit plot and another slightly hit plot in the same location) in the municipalities of Jinotega, Tuma-La Dalia and San Ramón were characterized for their management and coffee rust impact. This information was completed through interviews with the farmers. In addition, farmers provided their perception of the reasons for differences of coffee rust intensities between plots and information about their socio-economic situation. From multivariate analyses, we deduced that young coffee trees, timely applications of fungicides based on disease monitoring, shade pruning, and soil and foliar fertilizers seemed to be key practices in managing coffee rust. These practices were well known by the farmers, but socio-economic difficulties severely held back their application, as revealed by a mental model approach. Low coffee economic resources were particularly mentioned by farmers as a constraint to applying the practices needed to manage coffee rust. The highest coffee rust intensities and impacts were found in plots where the farmers, in general, had no education, no training, a low number of direct technical advices, and low incomes. To our knowledge, this is the first time that poor economic conditions have been related to the development of intense plant disease outbreaks. These relationships indicated that technical solutions to manage coffee rust are not sufficient and that economic solutions, where the market has a crucial role to play, need to be implemented. • Coffee rust caused by Hemileia vastatrix heavily hit Central America in 2012. • Some Nicaraguan coffee farmers avoided intense epidemics and losses. • Timely fungicide sprays and fertilization were crucial to manage coffee rust. • Precarious economic conditions were a strong obstacle to their application. • Coffee rust issue has an economic component that the market needs to recognize. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]