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A current outbreak of the monkeypox viral infection, which started in Nigeria, has spread to other areas of the globe. This affects over 28 nations, including the United Kingdom and the United States. The monkeypox virus causes monkeypox (MPX), which is comparable to smallpox and cowpox (MPXV). The monkeypox virus is a member of the Poxviridae family and belongs to the Orthopoxvirus genus. In this work, a novel fractional model for Monkeypox based on the Caputo derivative is explored. For the model, two equilibria have been established: disease-free and endemic equilibrium. Using the next-generation matrix and Castillo's technique, if R 0 < 1 the global asymptotic stability of disease-free equilibrium is shown. The linearization demonstrated that the endemic equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable if R 0 > 1. Using the parameter values, the model's fundamental reproduction rates for both humans and non-humans are calculated. The existence and uniqueness of the solution are proved using fixed point theory. The model's numerical simulations demonstrate that the recommended actions will cause the infected people in the human and non-human populations to disappear. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public health awareness programs have been a crucial strategy in mitigating the spread of emerging and re-emerging infectious disease outbreaks of public health significance such as COVID-19. This study adopts an Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered (SEIR) based model to assess the impact of public health awareness programs in mitigating the extent of the COVID-19 pandemic. The proposed model, which incorporates public health awareness programs, uses ABC fractional operator approach to study and analyze the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. It is possible to completely understand the dynamics of the model's features because of the memory effect and hereditary qualities that exist in the fractional version. The fixed point theorem has been used to prove the presence of a unique solution, as well as the stability analysis of the model. The nonlinear least-squares method is used to estimate the parameters of the model based on the daily cumulative cases of the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria from March 29 to June 12, 2020. Through the use of simulations, the model's best-suited parameters and the optimal ABC fractional-order parameter τ may be determined and optimized. The suggested model is proved to understand the virus's dynamical behavior better than the integer-order version. In addition, numerous numerical simulations are run using an efficient numerical approach to provide further insight into the model's features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most severe and troubling diseases these days is COVID- 1 9 pandemic. The COVID- 1 9 pandemic's dangerous effects are extremely rapid, and infection normally results in death within a few weeks. As a consequence, it is important to delve deeper into the complexities of this elusive virus. In this study, we propose a Caputo-based model for increasing COVID-19 strains. The memory effect and hereditary properties of the fractional variant for the model enable us to fully comprehend the dynamics of the model's features. The existence of unique solution using the fixed-point theorem and Arzelá–Ascoli principle as well as the stability analysis of the model by means of Ulam–Hyer stability (UHS) and generalized Ulam–Hyer stability (GUHS) have been discussed. Furthermore, the parameters of the model are estimated using 3 months data points chosen from Nigeria using the nonlinear least-squares technique. The best-suited parameters and the optimized Caputo fractional-order parameter α are obtained by running simulations for both models. The proposed model is shown to comprehend the dynamical behavior of the virus better than the integer-order version. In addition, to shed more light on the model's characteristics, various numerical simulations are performed using an efficient numerical scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a mathematical model of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to investigate the transmission and control mechanism of the disease in the community of Nigeria. Using stability theory of differential equations, the qualitative behavior of model is studied. The pandemic indicator represented by basic reproductive number R0 is obtained from the largest eigenvalue of the next-generation matrix. Local as well as global asymptotic stability conditions for the disease-free and pandemic equilibrium are obtained which determines the conditions to stabilize the exponential spread of the disease. Further, we examined this model by using Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivative operator and existence criteria of solution for the operator is established. We consider the data of reported infection cases from April 1, 2020, till April 30, 2020, and parameterized the model. We have used one of the reliable and efficient method known as iterative Laplace transform to obtain numerical simulations. The impacts of various biological parameters on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 is examined. These results are based on different values of the fractional parameter and serve as a control parameter to identify the significant strategies for the control of the disease. In the end, the obtained results are demonstrated graphically to justify our theoretical findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A mathematical model consisting of a system of four nonlinear ordinary differential equations is constructed. Our aim is to study the dynamics of the spread of COVID-19 in Nigeria and to show the effectiveness of awareness and the need for relevant authorities to engage themselves more in enlightening people on the significance of the available control measures in mitigating the spread of the disease. Two equilibrium solutions; Disease free equilibrium and Endemic equilibrium solutions were calculated and their global stability analysis was carried out. Basic reproduction ratio (R0) was also obtained, in this research R0 = 3.0784 . Data obtained for Nigeria is used to conduct numerical simulations in order to support the analytic result and to show the significance of awareness in controlling the disease spread. From the simulation result, it was shown that to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 in Nigeria there is need for serious awareness programs to enlighten people on the available control measures; social distancing, self-isolation, use of personal protective equipment (such as face mask, hand globes, overall gown, etc.), regular hand washing using soap or sanitizer, avoiding having contact with person showing the symptoms and reporting any suspected case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new strain of meningitis emerges in northern Nigeria, which brought a lot of confusion. This is because vaccine and treatment for the old strain was adopted but to no avail. It was later discovered that it was a new strain that emerged. In this paper we consider the two strains of meningitis (I 1 and I 2). Our aim is to analyse the effect of one strain on the dynamics of the other strain mathematically. Equilibrium solutions were obtained and their global stability was analysed using Lyaponuv function. It was shown that the stability depends on magnitude of the basic reproduction ratio. The coexistence of the two strains was numerically shown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]