1. MODELING TUBERCULOSIS TRANSMISSION IN SOUTH-WEST NIGERIA.
- Author
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Akinrefon, Adesupo A. and Adejumo, Olusola A.
- Subjects
TUBERCULOSIS ,MARKOV processes ,VACCINATION ,SENSITIVITY analysis - Abstract
Tuberculosis has persisted over the years as a significant contributor to mortality and morbidity counts globally and in particular, Nigeria. This study formulated a continuous-time Markov process model for TB dynamics with the introduction of vaccination impact in the susceptible and exposed classes. Using the Gillespie’s algorithm, we obtained stochastic realizations of the disease behavior using the Kolmogorov equations. Sensitivity analysis on impact of key parameters showed that intervention effort at 50% - 85% effectively reduced TB incidence despite reinfection of recovered individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2019