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[Display omitted] • Elucidation of CF in rib-to-deck (RD) joints of coastal weathering steel bridges. • PCF model tailored to addresses multi-mode, multi-site failures of RD joints. • Synergy prognosis executed with traffic data, tests, simulations and predictions. • Effect of traffic-corrosivity, coatings, steel types and weld quality scrutinised. This paper introduces a pioneering probabilistic framework for predicting corrosion fatigue (CF) deterioration for coastal weathering steel bridges, employing WIM data, material testing, fracture mechanics, corrosion modelling, and numerical simulations. A comprehensive three-stage probabilistic CF (PCF) model is adapted to track CF crack growth under uncertainties. The applicability and efficacy of the proposed method are validated through a prototype cable-stayed bridge in Ningbo, China, which is subjected to severe corrosivity and heavy traffics. A thorough investigation is conducted on the impact of coating strategies, steel types, and welding quality on the service reliability of the case-study bridge. The study significantly highlights the superior corrosion fatigue performance of weathering steel bridges, elucidating an apparent improvement in the service life compared to traditional carbon steel bridges. This underscores the potential of weathering steel as a preferred material for coastal bridges facing high corrosive environments. Further enhancements can be expected with the proper design of coating strategies, which requires a defined analysis based on the site condition. In addition, the emphasis on minimizing welding flaws through improved welding processes is recommended, demonstrating a direct correlation with extended service life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]