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With the implementation of the western development strategy, large areas in western China are experiencing rapid industrialization and urbanization phases. Simultaneously, increasing energy consumption linked to CO 2 emissions is becoming a serious problem. The stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology model and the random parameters model were developed to assess and quantify the strength of the relationship between CO 2 emissions that are attributed to energy consumption and their major drivers (i.e., population, economy, and technology). The Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, which is a typical region in western China with low energy efficiency and rapid economic growth, was selected as an example. This study determined CO 2 emissions attributed to energy consumption from 1991 to 2011, and assessed the effects of the major drivers of CO 2 emissions at the county level. The following results were obtained. (1) The CO 2 emissions of Ningxia increased rapidly throughout the study period. (2) Increasing gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, urban employment, and the contribution to GDP of secondary industries would promote CO 2 emissions. By contrast, increasing the growth of the per capita annual disposable income of rural households, the contribution to GDP of tertiary industries, and population density would restrain CO 2 emissions. (3) The county-level heterognerity was found to be significant which suggests adopting a uniform policy might not be optimal. Finally, the study method, effects of CO 2 emission factors, and policy suggestions could also be applied to other provinces and autonomous regions in western China because of the similar characteristics of these areas such as vast lands, rich resources, and low development level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]