Search

As hydro-meteorological hazards are predicted to become more frequent and intense in the future, scholars and policymakers are increasingly concerned about their security implications, especially in the context of ongoing climate change. Our study contributes to this debate by analysing the pathways to water-related conflict onset under drought conditions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region between 1996 and 2009. It is also the first such analysis that focuses on small-scale conflicts involving little or no physical violence, such as protests or demonstrations. These nonviolent conflicts are politically relevant, yet understudied in the literature on climate change and conflict, environmental security, and political instability. We employ the method of qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to integrate quantitative and qualitative data at various scales (national, regional, local) for a sample of 34 cases (17 of which experienced conflict onset). Our findings show that pre-existing cleavages and either autocratic political systems or cuts of the public water supply are relevant predictors of nonviolent, water-related conflict onset during droughts. Grievances deeply embedded into socio-economic structures in combination with a triggering event like a drought or water cuts are hence driving such water-related conflicts, especially in the absence of proper political institutions. We thus argue that drought–conflict links are highly context-dependent even for nonviolent, local conflicts, hence challenging determinist narratives that claim direct interlinkages between climate change, hydro-meteorological disasters and conflict. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Our study links environmental impacts of climate change to major socio-economic and agricultural developments in North Africa. We jointly investigate climate projections, vulnerability, impacts, and options for adaptation. Precipitation in North Africa is likely to decrease between 10 and 20%, while temperatures are likely to rise between 2 and 3°C by 2050. This trend is most pronounced in the north-western parts of northern Africa as our own model results suggest. The combination of decreasing supply and strong population growth aggravates the stressed water situation in the region. We further compare the vulnerabilities, adaptive capacities and conflict implications of climate change in Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. Climate change will likely have the strongest effect on Morocco where the agricultural sector is of high importance for the country''s economy and particularly for poor people. Our analysis of climate impacts and adaptation options in Morocco suggests that the agricultural incentives used in the past are inadequate to buffer drought effects. To increase resilience against climate change, agricultural policies should shift from maximizing agricultural output to stabilizing it. Our bio-economic model results further suggest a considerable potential of replacing firewood by electric energy to sustain pastoral productivity. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]