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The boreal forest is the world’s largest terrestrial biome, covering all continents in the northern hemisphere. Much research has focused on the effects of forest management and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem level processes of the boreal forest. However, even though climate change and the increasing rate of resource exploitation are likely to intensify the arrival and establishment of exotic species with the potential to become invasive, the boreal forest continues to be viewed as inhospitable to incoming species and we have little understanding of its invasive species status. We reviewed the literature and compiled information on the current status of invasive species across all taxa present in the North American boreal forest. We found that an increasing number of exotic plants, insects, earthworms, slugs and pathogens are establishing in the boreal forest. Research is scarce and their ecological effects are poorly understood. However, given that some of the reported species represent a major driver of change in many ecosystems globally, we expect that this review will provide direction for invasive species research as well as preventative measures aimed at better understanding and conserving Earth’s largest terrestrial biome. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

By the end of the current decade, there are plans to deploy several geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) satellite missions for atmospheric composition over North America, East Asia and Europe with additional missions proposed. Together, these present the possibility of a constellation of geostationary platforms to achieve continuous time-resolved high-density observations over continental domains for mapping pollutant sources and variability at diurnal and local scales. In this paper, we use a novel approach to sample a very high global resolution model (GEOS-5 at 7 km horizontal resolution) to produce a dataset of synthetic carbon monoxide pollution observations representative of those potentially obtainable from a GEO satellite constellation with predicted measurement sensitivities based on current remote sensing capabilities. Part 1 of this study focuses on the production of simulated synthetic measurements for air quality OSSEs (Observing System Simulation Experiments). We simulate carbon monoxide nadir retrievals using a technique that provides realistic measurements with very low computational cost. We discuss the sampling methodology: the projection of footprints and areas of regard for geostationary geometries over each of the North America, East Asia and Europe regions; the regression method to simulate measurement sensitivity; and the measurement error simulation. A detailed analysis of the simulated observation sensitivity is performed, and limitations of the method are discussed. We also describe impacts from clouds, showing that the efficiency of an instrument making atmospheric composition measurements on a geostationary platform is dependent on the dominant weather regime over a given region and the pixel size resolution. These results demonstrate the viability of the “instrument simulator” step for an OSSE to assess the performance of a constellation of geostationary satellites for air quality measurements. We describe the OSSE results in a follow up paper (Part 2 of this study). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Known as Associations for the Support of Peasant Agriculture ( Association de Maintien de l'Agriculture Paysanne), AMAPs started to spread in France just after year 2000. These trust-based partnerships between urban consumers and farmers share some proximity with Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) organizations that developed in North America in the 1990s. Both organizations fight against large scale food chains and advocate for the necessity to change eating habits and mostly to switch to fresh seasonal organic products. They also stress the importance of setting human direct relations between the urban and agrarian areas. As AMAPs were also recently supported by students and introduced as CSAs in several French universities, this paper, backed by ethnographical fieldwork, describes how and why students decided to run CSAs on the campus of Aix-Marseille University (AMU). Students turned themselves into shareholders in AMAPs. They started to run them and deliver weekly fresh fruits and vegetables to three different university venues in AMU. Delivery is tailored for students needs and also allows students to experience collective farming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines long-term eddy covariance data from 18 European and 17 North American and Asian forest, wetland, tundra, grassland, and cropland sites under non-water-stressed conditions with an empirical rectangular hyperbolic light response model and a single layer two light-class carboxylase-based model. Relationships according to ecosystem functional type are demonstrated between empirical and physiological parameters, suggesting linkages between easily estimated parameters and those with greater potential for process interpretation. Relatively sparse documentation of leaf area index dynamics at flux tower sites is found to be a major difficulty in model inversion and flux interpretation. Therefore, a simplification of the physiological model is carried out for a subset of European network sites with extensive ancillary data. The results from these selected sites are used to derive a new parameter and means for comparing empirical and physiologically based methods across all sites, regardless of ancillary data. The results from the European analysis are then compared with results from the other Northern Hemisphere sites and similar relationships for the simplified process-based parameter were found to hold for European, North American, and Asian temperate and boreal climate zones. This parameter is useful for bridging between flux network observations and continental scale spatial simulations of vegetation/atmosphere carbon dioxide exchange. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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A new species of Eupsilia Hübner phenotypically allied to E. cirriplaea (Franclemont, 1952) and E. sidus (Guenée, 1852) is described from northeastern North America. Identification of E. schweitzeri, n. sp., is most reliably made on the basis of larval morphology or genetic data, although most adults can be determined using subtle forewing features, including their derived forewing scale type. The adult, genitalia, forewing scales, and larvae of the new species are illustrated. Keys are provided to adults and larvae of the seven northeastern Eupsilia. Eupsilia walkeri (Grote, 1864) is synonymized under E. vinulenta, n. syn. Scopelsoma colorado (Smith, 1903) is removed from synonymy with Eupsilia sidus and given valid species status as Eupsilia colorado, rev. stat., and a neotype is designated for E. sidus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although cattails ( Typha spp.) are important components of wetlands around the world, the three most widespread species ( T. angustifolia, T. domingensis, T. latifolia) are becoming increasingly dominant. We used global phylogenetic and phylogeographic assessments to test the hypotheses that each species has experienced multiple introductions of divergent lineages into North America and that commercial retailers are aiding long-distance dispersal. Our analyses identified T. angustifolia as a paraphyletic species with a highly divergent lineage. We found evidence for at least one introduced T. angustifolia lineage in wild populations and garden centres of North America. Although potentially complicated by incomplete lineage sorting, our data suggest dispersal of T. domingensis between Europe and Australia, and further investigation should assess a possible introduction of a non-native T. domingensis lineage into North America. T. latifolia has experienced bidirectional dispersal between North America and Europe, and a sample of T. latifolia purchased in a Canadian garden centre was an Asian lineage. Interspecific hybridization and novel intraspecific admixture have been repeatedly implicated in biological invasions, including invasions by the hybrid cattail Typha × glauca, and future work should focus on the potential contributions of non-native lineages to regional patterns of invasion by Typha spp. in North America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using observational pentad data of the recent 34 Northern Hemisphere extended winters, subseasonal variability of surface air temperature (SAT) over North America is analyzed. The four leading modes of subseasonal SAT variability, that are identified with an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, account for about 60% of the total variance. The first (EOF1) and second (EOF2) modes are independent of other modes, and thus are likely controlled by distinct processes. The third (EOF3) and fourth (EOF4) modes, however, tend to have a phase shift to each other in space and time, indicating that part of their variability is related to a common process and represent a propagating pattern over North America. Lagged regression analysis is conducted to identify the precursors of large-scale atmospheric circulation for each mode a few pentads in advance, and to understand the processes that influence the subseasonal SAT variability and the predictability signal sources. EOF1 is found to be closely related to the Pacific-North American (PNA) circulation pattern and at least part of its variability is preceded by the East Asian cold surge. The cold surge leads to low-level convergence and enhanced convection in the tropical central Pacific which in turn induces the PNA. EOF2 tends to oscillate at a period of about 70 days, and is influenced by the low-frequency component of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). On the other hand, EOF3 and EOF4 are connected to the high-frequency part of the MJO which has a period range of 30-50 days. These findings would help understanding the mechanisms of subseasonal surface air temperature variability in North America and improving weather predictions on a subseasonal time scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many temperate plant genera, like Sambucus, have species with range disjunctions among North America, Europe and/or Asia. Cold stratification (sometimes in combination with warm stratification) is the primary mechanism to break seed dormancy in these species. For some of these genera showing Northern Hemispheric disjunctions, members also occur in subtropical or tropical regions, mostly confined to higher elevations where climate and vegetation differ from those in northern latitudes. We made two hypotheses concerning germination for the subtropical Taiwanese Sambucus chinensis: (1) seeds from populations exposed to warm temperatures would require warm stratification, and (2) seeds from populations exposed to cold temperatures need cold stratification. We investigated the germination (including embryo growth) of non-stratified seeds over a range of temperatures and tested the effects of cold stratification and of gibberellins GA3 and GA4 on germination. The amount and timing of germination among populations varied substantially in response to temperature treatments. Seeds from all populations of this species required warm temperatures for dormancy break and germination, regardless of environmental conditions. As such, the majority of seeds had non-deep simple morphophysiological dormancy, which, until now, has not been reported in any members of Sambucus. The seed characteristics of the subtropical S. chinensis are different from those of temperate members of the genus in which cold stratification is the predominate treatment to overcome dormancy. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Fomitiporia hartigii s. l. is an important trunk rot pathogen of conifers throughout the Northern Hemisphere. In North America, this pathogen primarily attacks Tsuga, but is also found on Abies, Picea and Pseudotsuga. Previous research showed that isolates of F. hartigii from North America represent a distinct phylogenetic species, known as F. tsugina. However, that conclusion is based on limited data. To better understand the phylogenetic relationships of F. tsugina in North America, a phylogenetic analysis was performed using three loci (internal transcribed spacer, nuclear large subunit and tef1) with 23 isolates originating from the northern United States, Canada and central Europe. North American isolates formed a monophyletic group with significant statistical support, confirming previous reports that F. tsugina represents a unique phylogenetic species, distinct from European F. hartigii s.s. Population subdivision between isolates of F. tsugina from eastern ( Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, New York and Wisconsin) and western ( British Columbia, Colorado, Oregon and Washington) North America was investigated. Tests of gene flow and genetic differentiation based on region of origin detected significant variation ( FST = 0.761; KST = 0.625, p < 0.01), suggesting gene flow between the two populations may be limited. Neutrality tests revealed significant, negative departures from the standard neutral model, which could indicate that a purifying or stabilizing selection has maintained low levels of polymorphisms in the population, perhaps favouring an advantageous phenotype. Further studies are required to better understand the occurrence of F. tsugina on Abies and Picea in boreal forests outside the natural range of Tsuga. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fourth Lake is a drainage lake at 43° N, 74° W, from which a 37-cm long mud-water interface core was recovered. 210 Pb dating indicates the core spans ≈340 years, from the Little Ice Age through modern global warming. Diatom accumulation responds to anthropogenic watershed disturbances, declining slightly up-core until a peak in the late-1800s attributable to sediment and nutrient influx from logging and enlargement of the outlet dam. A dramatic decrease occurs ≈1900 as logging and lake filling ceased, and a smaller peak ≈1960 accompanies residential development. Similar changes occur in organic carbon accumulation, which ranges from 0.0038-0.024 mg cm−2 year−1, with generally decreasing values up-core, punctuated by maximum values in the late-1800s. Expressing diatoms as concentration, however, reveals a doubling up-core that positively correlates with changes extending beyond the watershed, including Northern Hemisphere temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration and solar irradiance ( R = 0.627, 0.675 and 0.400, respectively). A >50% increase in % organic carbon, from 3.8% to 5.9%, also positively correlates with these larger-scale environmental conditions ( R = 0.828, 0.830 and 0.832), while negative correlations with the extrabasinal records are exhibited by magnetic susceptibility ( R = −0.654, −0.496, and −0.660) and clay ( R = −0.770, −0.762, and −0.737). These changes are consistent with decreased sediment influx and reduced dilution of biogenous sedimentary components. In contrast to total diatoms, the accumulation of planktonic genus Asterionella displays a long-term increase up-core. Potential explanations include increasing duration of the ice-free season or a shift in the timing of the spring bloom and a mismatch with abundance of predator(s). Asterionella also increases as a percentage of total diatoms, being positively correlated with extrabasinal conditions ( R = 0.827, 0.774 and 0.674). This change occurs at the expense of many benthic genera and, over the past century, at the expense of tychoplanktonic genus, Aulacosiera. Heavily silicified, Aulacosiera requires strong mixing to remain within the epilimnion. Thus, its decline might result from increasing stratification caused by warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the Arctic region has been warming strongly in recent decades, anomalously large snowfall in recent winters has affected large parts of North America, Europe, and east Asia. Here we demonstrate that the decrease in autumn Arctic sea ice area is linked to changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation that have some resemblance to the negative phase of the winter Arctic oscillation. However, the atmospheric circulation change linked to the reduction of sea ice shows much broader meridional meanders in midlatitudes and clearly different interannual variability than the classical Arctic oscillation. This circulation change results in more frequent episodes of blocking patterns that lead to increased cold surges over large parts of northern continents. Moreover, the increase in atmospheric water vapor content in the Arctic region during late autumn and winter driven locally by the reduction of sea ice provides enhanced moisture sources, supporting increased heavy snowfall in Europe during early winter and the northeastern and midwestern United States during winter. We conclude that the recent decline of Arctic sea ice has played a critical role in recent cold and snowy winters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial and temporal patterns of variability in spring onset are identified across western North America using a spring index (SI) model based on weather station minimum and maximum temperatures ( Tmin and Tmax, respectively). Principal component analysis shows that two significant and independent patterns explain roughly half of the total variance in the timing of spring onset from 1920 to 2005. However, these patterns of spring onset do not appear to be linear responses to the primary modes of variability in the Northern Hemisphere: the Pacific--North American pattern (PNA) and the northern annular mode (NAM). Instead, over the period when reanalysis data and the spring index model overlap (1950--2005), the patterns of spring onset are local responses to the state of both the PNA and NAM, which together modulate the onset date of spring by 10--20 days on interannual time scales. They do so by controlling the number and intensity of warm days. There is also a regionwide trend in spring advancement of about −−1.5 days decade−−1 from 1950 to 2005. Trends in the NAM and PNA can only explain about one-third (−−0.5 day decade−−1) of this trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A regression-based modeling approach is described for mapping the dependence of atmospheric state variables such as surface air temperature (SAT) on the Madden--Julian oscillation (MJO). For the special case of a linear model the dependence can be described by two maps corresponding to the amplitude and lag of the mean atmospheric response with respect to the MJO. In this sense the method leads to a more parsimonious description than traditional compositing, which usually results in eight maps, one for each MJO phase. Another advantage of the amplitude and phase maps is that they clearly identify propagating signals, and also regions where the response is strongly amplified or attenuated. A straightforward extension of the linear model is proposed to allow the amplitude and phase of the response to vary with the amplitude of the MJO or indices that define the background state of the atmosphere--ocean system. Application of the approach to global SAT for boreal winter clearly shows the propagation of MJO-related signals in both the tropics and extratropics and an enhanced response over eastern North America and Alaska (further enhanced during La Niñña years). The SAT response over Alaska and eastern North America is caused mainly by horizontal advection related to variations in shore-normal surface winds that, in turn, can be traced (via signals in the 500-hPa geopotential height) back to MJO-related disturbances in the tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors simulate transient twentieth-century climate in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM, with aerosol and ozone chemistry fully coupled to one another and to climate including a full dynamic ocean. Aerosols include sulfate, black carbon (BC), organic carbon, nitrate, sea salt, and dust. Direct and BC-snow-albedo radiative effects are included. Model BC and sulfur trends agree fairly well with records from Greenland and European ice cores and with sulfur deposition in North America; however, the model underestimates the sulfur decline at the end of the century in Greenland. Global BC effects peak early in the century (1940s); afterward the BC effects decrease at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but continue to increase at lower latitudes. The largest increase in aerosol optical depth occurs in the middle of the century (1940s--80s) when sulfate forcing peaks and causes global dimming. After this, aerosols decrease in eastern North America and northern Eurasia leading to regional positive forcing changes and brightening. These surface forcing changes have the correct trend but are too weak. Over the century, the net aerosol direct effect is −−0.41 W m−−2, the BC-albedo effect is −−0.02 W m−−2, and the net ozone forcing is ++0.24 W m−−2. The model polar stratospheric ozone depletion develops, beginning in the 1970s. Concurrently, the sea salt load and negative radiative flux increase over the oceans around Antarctica. Net warming over the century is modeled fairly well; however, the model fails to capture the dynamics of the observed midcentury cooling followed by the late century warming. Over the century, 20%% of Arctic warming and snow--ice cover loss is attributed to the BC-albedo effect. However, the decrease in this effect at the end of the century contributes to Arctic cooling. To test the climate responses to sulfate and BC pollution, two experiments were branched from 1970 that removed all pollution sulfate or BC. Averaged over 1970--2000, the respective radiative forcings relative to the full experiment were ++0.3 and −−0.3 W m−−2; the average surface air temperature changes were ++0.2°° and −−0.03°°C. The small impact of BC reduction on surface temperature resulted from reduced stability and loss of low-level clouds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study on the spatial extent of river networks for a number of winter periods in the Northern Hemisphere. The study used the geographical information system (GIS) databases in representing the river networks. Results of the study showed the southern positions of the isotherms in central North America. The study revealed that lengths of some of the worlds largest rivers including Lena, Mackenzie, and Yenisey fall within the three zero degree Celsius isotherm boundaries.

Droughts, which occur as a part of natural climate variability, are expected to increase in frequency and/or severity with global climate change. An improved understanding of droughts and their association with atmospheric circulation will add to the knowledge about the controls on drought, and the ways in which changes in climate may impact droughts. In this study, 1) major drought patterns across the United States have been defined, 2) the robustness of these patterns over time using tree-ring-based drought reconstructions have been evaluated, and 3) the drought patterns with respect to global atmospheric pressure patterns have been assessed. From this simple assessment, it is suggested that there are two major drought patterns across North America, which together account for about 30% of the total variance in drought patterns—one resembles the classic ENSO teleconnection, and the other displays an east–west drought dipole. The same two patterns are evident in the instrumental data and the reconstructed drought data for two different periods, 1404–2003 and 900–1350. The 500-mb circulation patterns associated with the two drought patterns suggest that the controls on drought may come from both Northern Hemisphere and tropical sources. The two drought patterns, and presumably their associated circulation patterns, vary in strength over time, indicating the combined effects of the two patterns on droughts over the past millennium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is generally accepted that the ocean thermohaline circulation plays a key role in polar climate stability and rapid climate change. Recently reported analyses of the impact of anomalous freshwater outflows from the North American continent onto either the North Atlantic or Arctic Oceans demonstrate that, in either case, a clear reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, accompanied by an increase in sea ice extent, is predicted. The results also reconcile proxy-inferred Younger Dryas Greenland temperature variations. The aim of the present work is to provide a detailed investigation of the pathways along which the signal associated with overturning circulation anomalies propagates into both the midlatitudes and the tropics and the effect such teleconnections have on the tropical ocean–atmosphere system. The authors consider both the impact of substantial slowing of the overturning circulation due to freshwater forcing of the North Atlantic as well as its recovery after the anomalous forcing has ceased. The changes in tropical climate variability are shown to manifest themselves in shifts of both the typical time scale and intensity of ENSO events in the model. Evidence is presented for mechanisms that involve both atmospheric and oceanic pathways through which such Northern Hemisphere high-latitude events are communicated into both the midlatitudes and the tropics and thereafter transformed into changes in the nature of tropical variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anticipating on the success of ADM-Aeolus there is a need to specify the wind observation requirements for the definition of an operational network of spaceborne Doppler wind lidars (DWL) in the post-ADM era, beyond 2012. As a first step, Sensitivity Observing System Experiments (SOSE) have been conducted to investigate the added value of various DWL scenarios in real events with bad forecasts. A database of cases covering the worst 2-d forecasts over Europe and North America for each season over the 1998–2004 period was used for this purpose. Considered DWL scenarios include (i) trains of the Aeolus-type instrument to increase the coverage of single wind components, (ii) a scenario having the same coverage as Aeolus but measuring the complete wind vector and (iii) a targeting scenario giving maximum coverage over the storm track regions. For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics it was found that a DWL network providing a geographically uniform sampling is more beneficial for numerical weather prediction (NWP) than a network providing larger but more localized improvements. A network of Aeolus-type satellites fulfils this goal. The added benefits of a second and third Aeolus in orbit are, respectively, 70 and 110% of the benefit of a single Aeolus DWL. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We compiled chemical data and phytoplankton biomass (PB) data (chlorophyll a) from unproductive lakes in 42 different regions in Europe and North America, and compared these data to inorganic nitrogen (N) deposition over these regions. We demonstrate that increased deposition of inorganic N over large areas of Europe and North America has caused elevated concentrations of inorganic N in lakes. In addition, the unproductive lakes in high N deposition areas had clearly higher PB relative to the total phosphorus (P) concentrations illustrating that the elevated inorganic N concentrations has resulted in eutrophication and increased biomass of phytoplankton. The eutrophication caused by inorganic N deposition indicates that PB yield in a majority of lakes in the northern hemisphere is (was) limited by N in their natural state. We, therefore, suggest that P limitation largely concerns lakes where the balance between N and P has been changed because of increased anthropogenic input of N. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis of the 56-yr NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data reveals a recurrent circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern in the summertime midlatitude circulation of the Northern Hemisphere. This pattern represents the second leading empirical orthogonal function of interannual variability of the upper-tropospheric circulation. The CGT, having a zonal wavenumber-5 structure, is primarily positioned within a waveguide that is associated with the westerly jet stream. The spatial phases of CGT tend to lock to preferred longitudes. The geographically phase-locked patterns bear close similarity during June, August, and September, but the pattern in July shows shorter wavelengths in the North Pacific–North America sector. The CGT is accompanied by significant rainfall and surface air temperature anomalies in the continental regions of western Europe, European Russia, India, east Asia, and North America. This implies that the CGT may be a source of climate variability and predictability in the above-mentioned midlatitude regions. The CGT has significant correlations with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, in normal ISM years the CGT–ENSO correlation disappears; on the other hand, in the absence of El Niño or La Niña, the CGT–ISM correlation remains significant. It is suggested that the ISM acts as a “conductor” connecting the CGT and ENSO. When the interaction between the ISM and ENSO is active, ENSO may influence northern China via the ISM and the CGT. Additionally, the variability of the CGT has no significant association with the Arctic Oscillation and the variability of the western North Pacific summer monsoon. The circulation of the wave train shows a barotropic structure everywhere except the cell located to the northwest of India, where a baroclinic circulation structure dominates. Two possible scenarios are proposed. The abnormal ISM may excite an anomalous west-central Asian high and downstream Rossby wave train extending to the North Pacific and North America. On the other hand, a wave train that is excited in the jet exit region of the North Atlantic may affect the west-central Asian high and, thus, the intensity of the ISM. It is hypothesized that the interaction between the global wave train and the ISM heat source may be instrumental in maintaining the boreal summer CGT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacier wastage has been pervasive during the last century; small glaciers and those in marginal environments are disappearing, large mid-latitude glaciers are shrinking slightly, and arctic glaciers are warming. Net mass balances during the last 40 years are predominately negative and both winter and summer balances (accumulation and ablation) and mass turnover are increasing, especially after 1988. Two principal components of winter balance time-series explain about 50% of the variability in the data. Glacier winter balances in north and central Europe correlate with the Arctic Oscillation, and glaciers in western North America correlate with the Southern Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere air temperature. The degree of synchronization for distant glaciers relates to changes in time of atmospheric circulation patterns as well as differing dynamic responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecast skill as a function of time lead and time averaging is examined in two 6-member ensembles of seasonal hindcasts. One ensemble is produced with the second generation general circulation model of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (GCM2) and the other with a reduced resolution version of the numerical weather prediction model of the Canadian Meteorological Centre (SEF). The integrations are initiated from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed data. Monthly sea surface temperature anomalies observed prior to the forecast period are maintained throughout the forecast season. A statistical forecast improvement technique, based on the singular value decomposition of forecast and reanalyzed fields, is discussed and evaluated. A simple analogue of the hindcast integrations is used to examine the behavior of two common skill scores, the correlation skill score and the explained variance skill score. The maximal skill score and the corresponding optimal forecast in this analogue are identified. The total skill of the optimal forecast is a sum of two terms, one associated with the initial conditions and the other with the lower boundary forcing. The two sources of skill operate on different time scales, with initial conditions being more important in the first one-two weeks and the atmospheric response to the boundary forcing becoming more dominant for longer time leads and time averages. This suggests that these sources of skill should be considered separately in forecast optimization. The statistical technique is moderately successful in improving the skill of monthly to seasonal forecasts of 500 hPa height (Z500) and 700 hPa temperature (T700) in the Northern Hemisphere and in the North Pacific/North America sector. The improvement is better when the forecasts for the first week and for the rest of the season are optimized separately. The SEF model produces better Z500 and T700 forecasts than GCM2 in the first one-two weeks whereas GCM2 performs slightly better at longer time leads. The skill of zero time lead forecast decays rapidly with averaging interval for time averages up to about 30–45 days and stabilizes, or even rises, for longer time averages. Excluding the first week from seasonal forecasts results in substantial degradation of predictive skill. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]